After a break of over 2 months since the last, it's time to get back into full ranking event action as the Shanghai Masters begins on Monday. It's been a stop-start beginning to the season but things start to get a little busier from here. If there was a meter for it, i'd say we go from green to spacious to amber for hectic after this week, while it goes red for hectic on the calendar for the International Championships onwards.
The notable man missing out again is Ronnie O'Sullivan who also tweeted that he wouldn't be playing in the Champion of Champions event either (whether that can be believed or not). If you want to see/hear the rocket these days your best bet is to go to an SWSA Pro-Am event which he seems to be a regular at, or pop on Phoenix FM on a Thursday where he has a regular slot.
Otherwise, Ali Carter may have won the Paul Hunter Classic in the most recent snooker that had an effect on the rankings (the non-ranking 6 Reds event has also been going on this week in Thailand of course) but when the qualifiers for this took place over a month ago, Ali lost out in the final qualifying round to David Grace, who now plays Mark Selby in round one.
Before I get on with looking ahead to the week by picking apart the draw, i'd like to point you all in the direction of my new STAT ATTACK feature, which has debuted this week with a statistical look ahead to this week. That can be found here:
http://cueactionsnookerblog.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/stat-attack-looking-to-shanghai.html
Otherwise, here's what I think will take place this week.
Quarter 1
Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)
Stuart Bingham Vs Jamie Jones/Fang Xiongman
Marco Fu Vs Mike Dunn/Niu Zhuang
John Higgins Vs Liang Wenbo
Barry Hawkins Vs Martin Gould
The top quarter of the draw features World Champion and defending Shanghai Master Stuart Bingham, along with 2012 champion John Higgins. Marco Fu will look to do better than his first round exit to Zhao Xintong in 2013, while Barry Hawkins match with Martin Gould could be a real cracker.
John Higgins has had an interesting season so far. Winning the Australian Open was brilliant for John and he seemed to play relatively consistent snooker, which is where I felt he'd been lacking in the last year. Since then, he's proved that such inconsistency looks like a bleak future for John. A loss in the Last 128 of the Riga Open could so easily have been repeated in Furth and he didn't seem to take the 6 Reds too seriously, begging the question as to why he even turned up. His first round opponent is Liang Wenbo, who John has never lost to, but I think he could well be in trouble early on in the tournament.
Stuart Bingham has been struggling for form since winning the world title, a first round exit in Australia was matched in Furth, with a Last 32 exit in Riga sandwiched in between. Hopefully for Stuart it won't be long before his form picks up, and maybe defending his Shanghai Masters title will spur him in to action. Like Mark Selby last season, it may take a little while to deal with life as a world champion, but he's too good not to respond and play his very best snooker at some stage. If he's on his game this week the draw could well be favourable to him, with other guys that aren't necessarily at the top of their game.
Barry Hawkins was the winner of the Riga Open which was his first event of the season. At the Paul Hunter Classic he lost to an inspired Kyren Wilson so he's by no means in bad form whatsoever. After the second half of the season that Barry endured last season until the Crucible, I really hope he kicks on and makes up for those disappointments. The draw hasn't exactly been kind to Barry this week though playing Martin Gould in round one. You never get an easy game against Martin and Barry could very easily play well and be beaten and head back to the UK scratching his head, but that's just the nature of the game. Get past the first round and the Hawk could well swoop the prize at the end of the week.
Marco Fu has played one tournament with ranking contribution so far and that was at the Paul Hunter Classic where he may have just been coming into it a bit cold on match practice. The 6 Reds will have added to that a little although it's still not perfect preparation. The one thing you would say about Marco is most of the time he plays at his base standard and is very tough to beat unless you play well. It's not often that you would call Marco outstanding, and it's not often that he'll be too far below par. If thinks work out for him in this quarter, Marco could easily get through it at his usual standard of hard to beat snooker.
Quarter Winner: Marco Fu
Quarter 2
Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)
Judd Trump Vs Robert Milkins/Chen Zifan
Ricky Walden Vs
Matt Selt
Mark Williams Vs Tom Ford/Wildcard TBC
Neil Robertson Vs Jamie Cope/Lin Shuai
In the other side of the top half of the draw we find 2012 Shanghai finalist Judd Trump and 2011 finalist Mark Williams. Neil Robertson will be playing his first match on tour since June 30th. Most improved player of the last year Matt Selt faces an intriguing match with Ricky Walden which I look forward to.
Ricky Walden came into the Paul Hunter Classic with his wife expecting their first child at any time. A couple of weeks on and i'm actually unsure as to what news there is on that front. Either way you feel that Walden's mind may be away from the table and you certainly wouldn't blame him. I've always said that Ricky is a rhythm player who plays his best when he's able to let loose, although from his manner at the table, these off table matters could de-rail his hopes of a second Shanghai title. Even without this, Walden has an incredibly tough draw as he takes on Matt Selt who I believe is going to make a charge for the top 20 before you know it, and will defiantly give the man from Chester a tough time.
Matt Selt as I say is highly improved and in good form already at the start of the season. A quarter-final appearance at the Australian Open was quickly matched at the Riga Open and he's already added the scalps of Neil Robertson and Shaun Murphy so early in the campaign. Even on the different tables and format of the 6 reds, Selt ran deep and he's showing a great level of quality in the sense that whatever the format, whatever the conditions, he can play to a high level and get the results required to be a top player. I actually hope he continues to kick on this week in Shanghai, and continues to show us all what he's got in the locker.
Neil Robertson hasn't played since his early exit at the Australian Open and I personally don't feel like that's a good decision for him. If a lot of players were missing all of the European Tours you'd think this is understandable. You could also understand it if he'd entered the 6 reds to gain some match practice just as Ding Junhui did after a long period without competitive snooker. There's a fine line between coming into a tournament fresh and coming into a tournament rusty and Neil may well find that out the hard way this week. You could go as far to say that he hasn't fully recovered from the 10-2 Masters final loss to Shaun Murphy, and when he was at his best and throughout his 100 centuries season in 2013/2014, he played in almost every tournament on the calendar, as you would have to in order to achieve something so great.
Judd Trump has been in weird form at the start of this campaign also in my opinion. If you take a closer look and analyse some of his results you'll see why I make this point. After two pretty easy games at the Australian Open he lost 5-1 to Stephen Maguire. He'd love to say he was totally outplayed by Stephen, but the fact is he scored nearly as many points as the Scot which is quite something in a loss of that magnitude. On to Riga and again he looked pretty untroubled in getting to the Last 16, but then he lost quite unexpectedly to Alan McManus and by another score that you wouldn't consider close. The same occurred at the Paul Hunter Classic, where he looked good on Saturday, but when Sunday came he struggled past Cope and was soundly beaten by Michael Holt, a man whom he has a magnificent record against. Don't read this the wrong way and think that i'm saying those players weren't worthy of their victories, but it's 3 cases so early in the season where Trump has been thrashed by players that usually he is capable of giving a good seeing to. 9 centuries says there's nothing wrong with his scoring so I think we can expect him to kick on and go deep into this tournament this week.
Mark Williams is obviously on the comeback from shoulder surgery that ruled him out of the Australian Open in July and since then he's played fairly well with last 16 and last 8 finishes in the two ET events. He came into both of those events saying he wasn't going too well in practice and still suffering with some pain and that shows how well Mark could go if he was at full strength as he was at the back end of last season when he went on a fantastic run of consistent tournament results. The only thing that was missing from that run was a proper tournament victory (because he definitely loves being announced as the Senior Champion). Mark's record in Shanghai is very good having been in a final here before, losing a decider to Selby, so he's more than capable of running deep into the draw this week.
Quarter Winner: Mark Williams
Quarter 3
Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)
Ding Junhui Vs
Alan McManus/ Yao Pengcheng
Graeme Dott Vs
Ryan Day
Stephen Maguire Vs
Michael Holt
Joe Perry Vs Kyren Wilson/ Wang Yuchen
This for me looks like the most interesting quarter of the draw. Ding Junhui hasn't played in a ranking event of any kind since the World Championships. Graeme Dott and Ryan Day are very closely matched in my view, as are Stephen Maguire and Michael Holt, while Players Champion Joe Perry has been in great form over the last year or so.
Ding Junhui is going to be an interesting player to watch this week as he comes into an important time in his season and arguably his career. He's just begun working with Terry Griffiths who will certainly help him in the mental side of the game, where he just seems to lack something, particularly when he lapsed back into old habits at the end of last season when he really struggled. It's also an important time for him in terms of his ranking. This time two seasons ago was when Ding clicked into gear and went on a run that saw him win 3 ranking titles in a row, and 5 over the course of the season. Unless he can repeat such spells of brilliance and win some big titles, with so much money to defend, he will fall quite alarmingly down the ranking list. His decision not to play in the European Tour events or Australian Open makes this his first tournament this season with any bearing on his ranking. However, we know that Ding is quite capable of going on a run of playing insane snooker, so maybe this is the week once again when everything will click into place.
Michael Holt is another player that Terry Griffiths is no working with, and it wouldn't be surprising to me if we saw the results of this work very quickly. Already we've been reminded of what Holty has the potential to do, as he made the last 4 in Furth losing out in a tough match to eventual champion Ali Carter. Shanghai is a place where Michael has managed nice results in the past, beating Ricky Walden in round one last year, before losing 5-3 to Mark Selby when Selby needed snookers in the seventh frame to avoid going 4-3 behind. Two seasons ago he made it to the semi-finals before losing out to Xiao Guodong. If there's one player that deserves to kick on and win a major title it's Holt. He's a quality player at his best, and works incredibly hard on his game as well as being a great personality who doesn't hide his feelings and accepts when he hasn't played well and knows how much better he can do. It may not be this week, although I could certainly see him winning his first round game with Stephen Maguire and who knows what he could do. Confidence is a funny thing in snooker like any sport and I personally believe that the run Michael had in Furth will have given him plenty.
Stephen Maguire is Michael's opponent in the first round and he's had a mixed start to the season also. After a semi-final appearance in the Australian Open, Maguire seemed to struggle in the two opening European Tour events losing in the Last 32 and Last 64, and this comes in a stretch of time now that has seen Stephen fail to kick on and left him fighting to stay in the top 16. I believe the problem that Stephen has is still a bit of "Scottish flair". If he misses a few simpler balls early or make a few simple errors, he gets on his own back rather quickly, particularly if he is punished by his opponent. I also believe that if Stephen gets sucked into a battle to stay in the top 16 rather than aiming to kick on, then his game will suffer as such.
Ryan Day is another former finalist at the Shanghai Masters and has already had a reasonable start to this season. He reached the quarter-finals of the Riga Open, though would've been slightly disgruntled to be whitewashed by Graeme Dott in that last 8 tie. Ironically, Graeme is his first round opponent this week and that will surely see Ryan hungry for revenge in what should be an evenly contested match between two players ranked within 3 spots of each other. In fact, the winner out of Graeme and Ryan could well kick on this week as I see this being a particular section of the draw that opens up very early on, and maybe the Welshman is the man to take advantage. The one thing that hinders Ryan is that he's very hit and miss. When he's on his game he can score heavily and is a match for anyone, but when it doesn't click you feel like he's very beatable for a man of such quality. Hopefully for his sake, things will fall into place this week.
Joe Perry is going about his business quietly so far this season. After a run to the quarters in Bendigo he's had two last 64 exits on the European Tour and i'd usually expect a lot better from Joe. Of course Perry won his first ranking title at the Players Championship in Thailand, a victory that you felt had been on the cards for quite some time with his form. He was present at the 6 Reds this week in Thailand, and hopefully that will re-invigorate him with the happy memories from earlier in the year, leaving him raring to get going this week. If the draw were to open up early on, Joe is certainly some that you would say is a candidate to take advantage of that, by doing what he always does and going about his business without too much fuss. Now he's a member of the winners circle, he'll have the confidence to that again and again, and Stuart Bingham is an example of that.
Quarter Winner: Joe Perry
Quarter 4
Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)
Shaun Murphy Vs Peter Ebdon/Yuan Sijun
Michael White Vs
Mark Davis
Mark Allen Vs Luca Brecel
Mark Selby Vs David Grace
The very last quarter of the draw sees last year's runner-up from Shanghai in Mark Allen, along with former winner Mark Selby. Shaun Murphy is another to watch out for after his run to the Paul Hunter Classic final a couple of weeks ago. Michael White's match with Mark Davis presents two guys that are separated by only three spots in the rankings so expect a close one there.
Michael White and Mark Davis presents a very tight first round match to call. Only three places separates them in the rankings, with White being the higher ranked of the two. The interesting stat comes on the head to head, as I pointed out in my new Stat Attack feature. Every single time the two have met, Mark has come out the victor, a stat that I was quite surprised to see. Neither has really kicked into top form at the beginning of this season, and I think that if the match goes close that could quickly become apparent as Davis in particular is not afraid to get drawn into a battle (something his marathon decider against Neil Robertson showed in the Grand Prix). I actually believe that Davis may try to make the game a little more tactical in an attempt to shut down the big scoring Welshman, and hopefully frustrate him into mistakes. Personally, I don't see either one of these players coming out on top in this quarter, with so many other quality players lurking that have all done well in this competition previously.
Mark Allen is one of those players as he beat Mark Selby 6-5 to make last years final, before being turned over by Bingham. Mark is another player yet to get going this season or even look like doing so. First round exits in Australia and Furth actually match that of his opponent in last years final, while he looked comfortable early on in the Riga Open, before meeting Graeme Dott in the last 16. In fact it's been a while since Allen has really had a good run in any tournament, possibly going all the way back to the Masters where he lost in the last 4, so you'd say he's due. However, snooker is never that simple and neither is his draw for this week. He could quite easily come unstuck against Luca Brecel if he brings his best scoring form and takes his chances. Even if he does get through Mark Selby is lurking as his possible last 16 opponent and that of course is never easy, as Allen has first hand experience of. This may well be another frustrating week for the Northern Irishman.
Shaun Murphy also finds himself in this difficult section of the draw. The World Championship runner-up was also a runner-up in his last event, the Paul Hunter Classic, losing out 4-3 to Ali Carter. The way Shaun explains the conditions for that week and if you compare them to the sticky, muggy conditions that are usually present in China, then he will be well prepared. He's been scoring well so far this season, and chose to miss the 6 Reds in order to better prepare for Shanghai (seeing no benefit in playing on a different make of table and cloth in an event with a totally different format). Instead Shaun has gone out to Shanghai quite early, with his first round match taking place on Wednesday evening, whilst he flew out on Wednesday of this week. If Shaun is on his game early this week and scoring well then he will be a match for everyone and it could be one of those weeks where the Magician tears up the field.
Mark Selby will have something to say about that, as a man that appears to be the King of Shanghai if you look at his history in this event. He may have only won the title once (though no-one has won it twice in the 8 year history) but he's also lost out in the semi-finals on 4 other occasions, so clearly has a love affair with the event, and of course the conditions that are not always easy to adapt to. His form this season hasn't been magnificent so far with a Last 16 exit in Australia 5-1 to Jamie Jones followed by a Last 32 defeat in Riga to Ken Doherty and a Last 64 loss in Furth to Scott Donaldson. This may be the event that kicks off Mark's season. When you have a good feeling coming to an event every year, knowing it's one where you have competed and played great stuff in the past it's a magnificent feeling, and at the best of times if Mark is anywhere near his best, he's tremendously tough to beat.
Quarter Winner: Mark Selby
Predicted Tournament Runner-Up: Mark Selby
Predicted Tournament Winner: Mark Williams
I'm really looking forward to what this week has in store for us, with the first of this seasons big Chinese ranking events. As always, coverage will be on Eurosport and they were doing so well with the coverage until it gets to the final which won't be shown live unfortunately according to the schedules. Otherwise this is usually a tournament that a lot of the fans and players seem to enjoy and I would certainly include myself with that after some of the brilliant matches we've seen in recent years.
