The Tournament Top Ten is my ranking of the top contenders for the title next week based on results of the four most recent Shanghai Masters tournaments, form from the season so far, as well as a number of statistics I have been collating and working on to hopefully enhance the insight and analysis that I can provide. These statistics include, average frames per 50+ break, average contribution when a player makes a break of 50 or above, percentage of close frames won and average frame aggregates and are calculated from the start of the season to now, which may only be a small sample size but as the season goes on these statistics could reveal a lot. Whilst I have also been listing the amount of full ranking event quarter-finals that a player has been involved in since the start of the 2014/2015 season (this excludes event on the old European and Asian Tours)
Some of that may seem a little complex or just strange but more will be explained in my upcoming "Stat Attack" blog which will deal with more of these statistics in detail.
Remember, this is not my individual opinion on who the best players will be in Shanghai, but players ranked on an average points per category basis. (The categories being those of previous tournament finishes, recent form, and the selected statistics). The points system I derived is one that is fair and rewards those that sit well statistically and in the case of previous tournaments is weighted from tournament winner down to Last 16 appearances.
Now that's all explained it's time to countdown the Top Ten statistically ranked players for the Shanghai Masters:
10 - Anthony McGill - Anthony McGill starts the list as the number ten player, and is mainly here thanks to his win at the Indian Open in early July. As well as this he made the quarter-finals of the Riga Masters and the World Open either side of that victory. Those results do a lot of making up for the fact that McGill has failed to qualify for the Shanghai Masters from 2012-2015, and with better showings he would surely be at the very top of this list. Statistically, McGill ranks third in the field in close frame win percentage (looking at frames where there was less than 20 points difference between the two players in the frame scores), and second in average frames per 50+ break made. If McGill keeps those numbers up the two combined is surely a recipe for success and explains why he has had such a good start to the 2016/2017 campaign.
9 - Mark Allen - Ninth on this list we have Mark Allen who may have only played one tournament so far in the season at the Paul Hunter Classic, but as the list is calculated on a "points average" the number of tournaments you play should not have as great an effect, as long as you have played enough, which Allen surely has by featuring in the Shanghai Masters from 2012-2015. Allen gets on to the list with runs to the final in Shanghai in 2014, and the semi-finals in 2015. His season got offer to reasonable start with a run to the Last 16 of the Paul Hunter Classic, and that one week's display still got him onto the season statistics list as the fourth best in this weeks 32 man field for frames per 50+ break. If that good scoring continues, his most recent Shanghai efforts suggest he could be one of the leaders this week.
8 - Stuart Bingham - It was fairly tight in the middle of the top ten which sees Bingham in eighth position. The Essex potter obviously features on this list thanks to his victory in Shanghai back in 2014, whilst he came back last year and put up a valiant defence by reaching the semi-finals. If you go back as far as 2012 Bingham was a quarter-finalist in Shanghai so his event specific record is a good one. He would be much higher on the list had he have put in a big performance at the start of the season, rather than a couple of Last 16 finishes in India and Latvia. The one statistic in that sat well for him was the amount of full ranking quarter-finals or better he has reached since the start of the 2014/2015, where he is in joint second position with nine quarter-finals reached. The quarter-finals and beyond are clearly not out of reach for Bingham once more it would seem.
7 - Judd Trump - Fifth, sixth and seventh positions were where it got really tight and there was very little to split the runners and riders in these places. Trump features thanks mostly to his appearances in the Shanghai Masters final in 2012 and 2015 losing out very narrowly on those two occasions. Unfortunately for him, the Ace does blow very hot and cold in Shanghai with first round exits in 2013 and 2014 stopping him from being at the very top of this top ten list. The season has had one brighter spark to start things off and that was a quarter-final appearance in Latvia, and things heat up Trump could be right there again. He ranks first on tour in the quarter-finals or better since the start of 2014/2015 stat, and he's third in the field for average frames per 50+ break so far this season which highlights one of Trump's main strengths. If those things continue in China next week Trump will be right there again.
6 - Neil Robertson - Finishing off the first half of the list is Neil Robertson who has had a very good start to the season so far. He won the first event of the season over in Latvia, whilst the first Chinese tournament of the year at the World Open saw him making the semi-finals. Two first round exits in Shanghai in the last two years prevent him from featuring higher on the list for sure with his recent Shanghai best being a 2013 quarter-final. It is in the quarter-finals or better since the beginning of 2014/2015 where the Australian appears in joint second place, whilst he leads the 32 man field for this week in frames per 50+ break, being the only player with an average of less than 2 frames per 50 break or above. Such stand out efforts could be a key factor again here.
5 - Mark Selby - The current World Champion appears at five in the countdown, thanks greatly to his win at the Paul Hunter Classic in August. He would be higher but for disappointing showings at the World Open and the Riga Masters, but his Shanghai record on the whole is a good one. He took the title five years ago, and after withdrawing from the 2015 edition his most recent finishes are a semi-final in 2014 and a quarter-final in 2013. Selby is fifth in the field for close frames win percentage this season so far and he also features in a large tie for fourth place for most quarter-finals in the last two and a bit seasons. Plenty of things shape up well coming into this event for Selby.
4 - Shaun Murphy - Shaun Murphy finds himself in fourth position in the list with a decent start to the season himself. In the two events he has entered he has made a semi-final (Indian Open) and a quarter-final (World Open) which gives him plenty to build on for the next heavy stage in the campaign. His Shanghai record is neither good or bad with three Last 16 exits in the last three years since reaching the 2012 semi-finals, again giving him something to build on. He features in the aforementioned tie for fourth for most quarter-final or better in ranking events within the last two and a bit years. On top of that he is fifth in the field for average frames per 50+ break which highlights one of the great strengths of Murphy's game, which he will hope to make count in Shanghai.
3 - Kyren Wilson - After the whirlwind year that Wilson has had it is no surprise to see him featuring so highly on this list. It was his Shanghai Masters win of 2015 that saw him breakthrough but that is not his only good showing in this event with another quarter-final under his belt in 2013 edition. His 2016/2017 campaign has also started off brightly showing his class again in India in July where he reached the final. Some people compare Wilson to a young Selby-like player and that shows in the close frame win percentage statistic where he lies one spot ahead of Selby, putting him fourth in this weeks field in close frame wins for the season so far. Statistics do not take into account how tough defending a title for the first time is, but they do suggest no reason why he should not do it well.
2 - Ding Junhui - The runners-up spot according to my tournament top ten analysis is where Ding Junhui features, He has only featured once so far this season in the World Open, where an early Last 32 exit did not help his cause on the list, but the bulk of his points come from his previous Shanghai showings. In 2013 the Shanghai Masters was his first of 5 ranking event titles that season. The following year he put up a valiant defence by reaching the semi-finals and losing to eventual winner Bingham, and he lost to the eventual winner again in 2015 when he exited in a black ball quarter-final with Kyren Wilson, all boasting a very strong record in this event. People say Ding's form over the last two years has not been as but he still ties for fourth place in the field for quarter-finals or better made in ranking events since the start of the 2014/2015 with eight in total. On the whole, the analysis certainly suggests that Ding will be a major player in Shanghai.
1 - John Higgins - The number one player coming into this years Shanghai Masters is John Higgins. Plenty of past finishes, statistics and the like point to Higgins being the man next week. In past stagings of the event Higgins boasts a win from 2012, while this season so far he has another Chinese quarter-final (World Open) as well as reaching the last 16 of the opening event in Latvia. Statistically the Scotsman is in the big tie for fourth place with eight quarter-finals or better since the start of 2014/2015 in major ranking events. On top of that he sits second in the field for average break when he makes a break of 50+ (with an awesome average of 83.32 for this statistic) as well as leading the field for average frame aggregate this season so far (a combination of average frame winning margin against average frame losing margin). So when the points system took all of these factors into account it was Higgins that came out on top.
This does not mean Higgins will win and that the other 31 professionals involved need not bother with the long trip to China next week, but I will be keeping tabs on the accuracy of this feature over the course of the season to see where the winner of each event finished in the top ten, and that is if they featured at all with a number of quality contenders falling short of the top ten this week.
Next up on the blog is the return of my "Stat Attack" feature tomorrow, before my full preview rounds off my Shanghai Masters build-up when that is published on Friday.
Do not forget to check out the launch of Fantasy Snooker for 2016/2017 which was posted yesterday and can be found here: http://cueactionsnookerblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/20152016-fantasy-snooker-league.html
It should be fun so why not enter and see if you can beat all the other fans as the top snooker predictor this year!!!
6 - Neil Robertson - Finishing off the first half of the list is Neil Robertson who has had a very good start to the season so far. He won the first event of the season over in Latvia, whilst the first Chinese tournament of the year at the World Open saw him making the semi-finals. Two first round exits in Shanghai in the last two years prevent him from featuring higher on the list for sure with his recent Shanghai best being a 2013 quarter-final. It is in the quarter-finals or better since the beginning of 2014/2015 where the Australian appears in joint second place, whilst he leads the 32 man field for this week in frames per 50+ break, being the only player with an average of less than 2 frames per 50 break or above. Such stand out efforts could be a key factor again here.
5 - Mark Selby - The current World Champion appears at five in the countdown, thanks greatly to his win at the Paul Hunter Classic in August. He would be higher but for disappointing showings at the World Open and the Riga Masters, but his Shanghai record on the whole is a good one. He took the title five years ago, and after withdrawing from the 2015 edition his most recent finishes are a semi-final in 2014 and a quarter-final in 2013. Selby is fifth in the field for close frames win percentage this season so far and he also features in a large tie for fourth place for most quarter-finals in the last two and a bit seasons. Plenty of things shape up well coming into this event for Selby.
4 - Shaun Murphy - Shaun Murphy finds himself in fourth position in the list with a decent start to the season himself. In the two events he has entered he has made a semi-final (Indian Open) and a quarter-final (World Open) which gives him plenty to build on for the next heavy stage in the campaign. His Shanghai record is neither good or bad with three Last 16 exits in the last three years since reaching the 2012 semi-finals, again giving him something to build on. He features in the aforementioned tie for fourth for most quarter-final or better in ranking events within the last two and a bit years. On top of that he is fifth in the field for average frames per 50+ break which highlights one of the great strengths of Murphy's game, which he will hope to make count in Shanghai.
3 - Kyren Wilson - After the whirlwind year that Wilson has had it is no surprise to see him featuring so highly on this list. It was his Shanghai Masters win of 2015 that saw him breakthrough but that is not his only good showing in this event with another quarter-final under his belt in 2013 edition. His 2016/2017 campaign has also started off brightly showing his class again in India in July where he reached the final. Some people compare Wilson to a young Selby-like player and that shows in the close frame win percentage statistic where he lies one spot ahead of Selby, putting him fourth in this weeks field in close frame wins for the season so far. Statistics do not take into account how tough defending a title for the first time is, but they do suggest no reason why he should not do it well.
2 - Ding Junhui - The runners-up spot according to my tournament top ten analysis is where Ding Junhui features, He has only featured once so far this season in the World Open, where an early Last 32 exit did not help his cause on the list, but the bulk of his points come from his previous Shanghai showings. In 2013 the Shanghai Masters was his first of 5 ranking event titles that season. The following year he put up a valiant defence by reaching the semi-finals and losing to eventual winner Bingham, and he lost to the eventual winner again in 2015 when he exited in a black ball quarter-final with Kyren Wilson, all boasting a very strong record in this event. People say Ding's form over the last two years has not been as but he still ties for fourth place in the field for quarter-finals or better made in ranking events since the start of the 2014/2015 with eight in total. On the whole, the analysis certainly suggests that Ding will be a major player in Shanghai.
1 - John Higgins - The number one player coming into this years Shanghai Masters is John Higgins. Plenty of past finishes, statistics and the like point to Higgins being the man next week. In past stagings of the event Higgins boasts a win from 2012, while this season so far he has another Chinese quarter-final (World Open) as well as reaching the last 16 of the opening event in Latvia. Statistically the Scotsman is in the big tie for fourth place with eight quarter-finals or better since the start of 2014/2015 in major ranking events. On top of that he sits second in the field for average break when he makes a break of 50+ (with an awesome average of 83.32 for this statistic) as well as leading the field for average frame aggregate this season so far (a combination of average frame winning margin against average frame losing margin). So when the points system took all of these factors into account it was Higgins that came out on top.
This does not mean Higgins will win and that the other 31 professionals involved need not bother with the long trip to China next week, but I will be keeping tabs on the accuracy of this feature over the course of the season to see where the winner of each event finished in the top ten, and that is if they featured at all with a number of quality contenders falling short of the top ten this week.
Next up on the blog is the return of my "Stat Attack" feature tomorrow, before my full preview rounds off my Shanghai Masters build-up when that is published on Friday.
Do not forget to check out the launch of Fantasy Snooker for 2016/2017 which was posted yesterday and can be found here: http://cueactionsnookerblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/20152016-fantasy-snooker-league.html
It should be fun so why not enter and see if you can beat all the other fans as the top snooker predictor this year!!!
