The top quarter of the draw sees an opportunity for either Neil Robertson or Mark Allen (whoever wins their possible second round match) to get into the semi-finals this week. In the bottom quarter the four seeds are Mark Selby, Ricky Walden, Mark Williams and Ali Carter and with Williams and Walden in poor form at the moment it gives Selby the opportunity to get a good run in ahead of The Crucible.
My 4 predicted semi-finalists would be Neil Robertson, Ding Junhui, Judd Trump and Mark Selby.
Neil Robertson has a first round meeting with his namesake Jimmy Robertson or wildcard Wang Yuchen. I can't real see Neil losing that one the way he's playing right now, so a second round meeting with Mark Allen is very likely. Robertson has a pretty decent record against Mark Allen, including a recent Masters quarter-final victory. Despite that Allen is in good form and played well in a losing effort against Ding at the PTC Grand Finals, and winning the Haikou World Open. However, i still see Robertson as a favourite in this one as he looks to improve his form in China. Looking at the other half of this section Marco Fu plays Graeme Dott and holder Peter Ebdon faces Marcus Campbell. I can see a slight upset in both matches there as neither Dott or Ebdon are in form at the moment. Firstly, Ebdon is struggling to get used to his new cue and has had a very poor year. Even though it was the same story last year until he won this event, i just can't see it happening again and i think Campbell will just get through. Graeme Dott is also in poor form, after first or second round exits in every event since the Masters in January, while Marco Fu made the quarter-finals in Galway and the German masters final in early February. Therefore i have to say that Fu will get through this and then go on into the quarter-finals. Despite this, Robertson should be strong enough on the day to beat Fu and reach the semi-finals.
In the other quarter, Ding Junhui has a tough start against Barry Hawkins, but in his current form i have to back the home favourite to get through. He should then play Stephen Maguire, who himself has a tricky start against Michael Holt, but one that the Scot should just come through. Ding will fancy his chances against Maguire, who had a really bad defeat from 3-0 up against Joe Swail in the PTC Grand Finals. Ding Junhui also has a good record against him, and therefore the home favourite, will be the favourite for a quarter-final spot. Elsewhere in this section John Higgins plays Robert Milkins and Stuart Bingham will face either Liang Wenbo or wildcard Lu Ning. Stuart should get through that, although not being in the greatest form since making the Welsh Open final. As for John Higgins, his last meeting against Robert Milkins saw Milkins win 5-3 in the Haikou World Open in 2012. However, Milkins has previously admitted that he struggles in the first round of Chinese events and if he does so again Higgins will surely punish him by going through to the second round. Out of Higgins and Bingham, i have to say that Higgins will get through if he can regain the form that saw him thrash Bingham 5-0 in the World Open. Whoever does reach the quarters from will come unstuck against Ding however, as they will really need to find their form quickly to overcome the century making machine if the home favourite is switched on. Otherwise i have to say that it will be successive China Open semi-finals for Ding Junhui.
Judd Trump has an equally tricky start, as he could play his good friend Jack Lisowski, as long as Lisowski wins his wildcard match. Judd should come through this one, but Lisowski definetly has the potential to beat him, especially after the confidence a win over Selby in the PTC Finals will give him. Still Trump will be the big favourite, and is my pick to be in the second round. In the second round he should play Mark Davis (no disrespect to Dechawat Poomjaeng), and this is another match that Trump will be hot favourite for. Davis has not had a great start to 2013, not qualifying for Germany or Wales (under the changed system) and suffering first round defeats in Haikou and Galway. That is definetly the form that gives me any reason to say that Davis will beat Trump, not saying that he can't, but it just seems unlikely. However automatic qualification for The Crucible could be on his mind and spur him on this week. In the other half of Trump's quarter lies a couple of dark horses. Shaun Murphy may not have won a ranking event for 2 years, but having had almost a month of from tournament would have given him a chance to refresh himself, and get some much needed practice in after disapointing defeats in Wales and Haikou. One of those disapointing defeats came to Matthew Stevens, who he may have to face again in round 2 here. Both have tough opening encounters with Murphy playing Andrew Higginson, and Matthew Stevens should face a trip to the dentist, playing Rory McLeod. Both should get through and then i think Murphy will make the quarters, and looks to get rid of some unfinished business of Haikou. Trump against Murphy would be a tough one to call, but one that Trump will look to, in order to prove he's ready for the World Championship. Murphy would be a good tournament bet if some others like Trump or Selby fall early though.
Finally, Mark Selby has a tasty start against Mark King, but Selby has a great record against King. King definetly has a good chance, especially as he plays some of his best snooker out in China. Selby should win if he's on his game though, and the fact that he's taken his wife out to Beijing may help him relax and get back into form this week. In the second round Selby could play either Ricky Walden or Ken Doherty. Walden enjoys playing out in China and his best results will prove that. To start with that made me think that he would definetly beat Ken and that he would also beat Selby. Having looked at Walden's form in recent times though, he hasn't managed to find the form in 2013 so far that got him the Wuxi Classic title, and at times he has actually played quite badly and nowhere close to where he can. Therefore, i have to go with the UK and Masters champion for victory. Meanwhile in Selby's quarter, Ali Carter needs victory over Jamie Cope or Zhao Xintong to secure the 16th seed for the World Championship. For that reason, and the fact that Cope has had a poor year that has seen him drop to world number 32 provisionally, i have to say that Carter will be in the second round. Carter will meet either Mark Williams or Lu Haotian (the 15 year old who made the quarters at the International Championship). This is after Mark Joyce pulled out of the tournament giving Lu a bye into the first round. I don't like to talk about the wildcards or even consider them because, i find them unfair and a complete waste as it's really all down to sponsors and many of them probably aren't good enough. So, i can see no way that Williams will exit this one in the first round (as he has in many recent tournaments) and he will be in the second round, where he should play Carter. This is where i must take the Welshmans form into account. On current form there is little chance of him beating Ali, if the German Masters champ keeps his discipline. Carter also made the Championship league final last week and has to be my bet of the week to make the quarter-finals. Out of Selby and Carter to reach the semi-finals then, i fancy that it will be Selby. The Jester from Leicester will be hoping for a good run to regain confidence before the big one in April starts, and if he shows the kind of determination he did in the UK and Masters, then i'm sure he will get through.
Predicted Semi-Finals:
Neil Robertson Vs Ding Junhui
Judd Trump Vs Mark Selby
Predicted tournament winner: Neil Robertson
1st Round Draw
Peter Ebdon Vs Marcus CampbellGraeme Dott Vs Marco Fu
Mark Allen Vs Anthony McGill/ Heydari Nezhad Ehsan
Neil Robertson Vs Jimmy Robertson/ Wang Yuchen
Stephen Maguire Vs Michael Holt
Ding Junhui Vs Barry Hawkins
Stuart Bingham Vs Liang Wenbo/ Lu Ning
John Higgins Vs Robert Milkins
Judd Trump Vs Jack Lisowski/ Zhou Yuelong
Mark Davis Vs Dechawat Poomjaeng/ Zhu Yinghui
Matthew Stevens Vs Rory McLeod/ Hu Hao
Shaun Murphy Vs Andrew Higginson
Mark Williams Vs Lu Haotian
Allister Carter Vs Jamie Cope/ Zhao Xintong
Ricky Walden Vs Ken Doherty
Mark Selby Vs Mark King
No comments:
Post a Comment