It's time to take a look then at all of the weeks scenarios, and who I think will go far in this event:
Quarter 1
Last 128 Draw:Mark Selby Vs Chen Zhe
Anthony Hamilton Vs Amateur Qualifier
Matthew Stevens Vs Allan Taylor
Matthew Selt Vs Ahmed Saif
Martin Gould Vs Amateur Qualifier
Peter Lines Vs Xiao Guodong
Robert Milkins Vs Paul Davison
John Astley Vs Fraser Patrick
Judd Trump Vs Liu Chuang
Chris Wakelin Vs Alexander Ursenbacher
Mike Dunn Vs Michael Leslie
Steve Davis Vs Amateur Qualifier
Tom Ford Vs Amateur Qualifier
Aditya Mehta Vs James Wattana
Mark King Vs Chris Norbury
Joe Perry Vs Daniel Wells
This quarter sees the likes of Mark Selby, Judd Trump, Joe Perry, Robert Milkins and Matthew Stevens as favourites to win it, while Tom Ford and Martin Gould amongst others could all produce good runs capable of winning the quarter. Meanwhile there are also lots of players that will be looking to boost their money ranking or to try and get into the top 8 players not already qualified for next season, and of course there are players in this section that can still make the Grand Finals.
Firstly, Mike Dunn is in a position where he is around £800 behind Tony Drago who holds the final tour card spot, and being £3,000 away from the Top 64 on the provisional money list, you have to say his best opportunity would be to get back on tour via the Euro OoM. Steve Davis is also around £800 pounds behind and could do with getting within this bracket, being only around £5000 ahead of place 65 which should be enough but you never know. Meanwhile the likes of Paul Davison, Daniel Wells, James Wattana and Michael Leslie all need wins this week for the money list you'd think, being a long way behind on that and with no realistic chances of making the top 8 not already on tour for next season. The important match in this quarter could well be between Davis and Dunn with the 2 due to meet in the Last 64 if they win their opening round ties, with the possible winner being in a much better position to stay on the tour you feel.
In terms of PTC Grand finals qualification, Martin Gould, Aditya Mehta and Robert Milkins would be the closest people outside of the Top 24 to be able to qualify this weekend with a few wins under their belts. Mehta is currently 28th on the OoM, while Gould is 31st and Milkins 39th. Looking at the draw and the current positions you have to say Mehta and Gould have the best chances, with Gould around £1,700 behind 24th placed Shaun Murphy, meaning realistically Gould will need to make the Last 8 to have any chance. As for Aditya, he is only £1,200 behind Shaun, meaning he will need either a Last 16 place and early exits for those above him, or a Last 8 spot and still for other results to go his way.
In terms of winning the quarter itself (you could've forgotten with everything else going on) you have to make Selby, Trump and Perry the main favourites this week. Perry has been resurgent all season and is back playing at his best again, and with an Asian PTC under his belt this season you couldn't rule him out this coming weekend. As for Mark Selby, he won the last PTC in November in Antwerp, and despite making the UK and Masters finals, he hardly produced his best snooker in Germany last week, and there are no signs that he could make a deep run in Poland this weekend, but you never know with Selby. Judd Trump is my favourite for the quarter though, having showed a return to form in Berlin last week, where he reach the final before losing out to the unstoppable Ding Junhui (who won't be in Poland to trouble anyone in this event). With Judd back in form it won't be long before he's winning tournaments and with his good record in PTC's, why can't it be this week?
Quarter Winner: Judd Trump
Quarter 2
Last 128 Draw:Michael Holt Vs Li Hang
Jamie Jones Vs Amateur Qualifier
Mark Davis Vs Ratchayothin Yotharuck
Martin O'Donnell Vs Jak Jones
Kyren Wilson Vs Tian Pengfei
Robbie Williams Vs Li Yan
Stuart Bingham Vs Amateur Qualifier
Shaun Murphy Vs Jamie O'Neill
Stephen Maguire Vs Cao Xin Long
Ryan Day Vs Robin Hull
Gary Wilson Vs Adam Duffy
Michael Wasley Vs Amateur Qualifier
Barry Hawkins Vs Ryan Clark
Thanawat Thirapongpaiboon Vs Jimmy White
John Higgins Vs Amateur Qualifier
Anthony McGill Vs Elliot Slessor
This quarter sees the likes of Stuart Bingham, Stephen Maguire, Barry Hawkins, Shaun Murphy and John Higgins battling to try and win this quarter, along with the likes of Mark Davis and Ryan Day that are also well capable of a good run in Poland this weekend. In terms of Grand Final spots we also have places 23, 24 and 25 on the Order of Merit in this quarter along with places 20 and 21 that aren't yet safe and 36 and 37 that still have slim chances of qualifying. As well as this, we also have a fair few players that desperately need prize money this weekend to keep their tour spots via the OoM or Prize money list.
Firstly, in terms of PTC Grand Final spots, Shaun Murphy in 24th currently holds the final qualifying spot, while Barry Hawkins in 23rd is only £17 ahead of him, and therefore nowhere near safe. As for Robbie Williams, in 25th spot he is only £134 behind Shaun and therefore £151 behind Barry meaning it couldn't be tighter between those 3, with realistically the best performing of the 2 being in great shape to qualify. Meanwhile, Mark Davis and Gary Wilson are far from safe, being only around £1,300 clear, and with a lot of people around them being in their quarter, it's still all to play for. Anthony McGill and Kyren Wilson also still have very small chances of qualification, with both sitting around £2,400 or £2,500 behind however, they would need to make a run to at least the semi-finals in my opinion.
On the subject of tour survival, this quarter sees Michael Wasley who is currently within the top 8 not already qualified and being £1,000 ahead of the 9th best player not already qualified, which means that Michael is in a really good position but still needs a win or 2 this weekend to make sure. The current unlucky player who is the 9th best player not already qualified for next year is Martin O'Donnell, who is an agonising £600 behind Tony Drago. Also, the likes of Jimmy White, Thanawat Thirapongpaiboon and Adam Duffy all have decent survival chances, with Jimmy currently £4,000 clear of 65th on the Money list but still in need of wins, while Duffy is actually around £17,000 behind with very little chance of survival unless he has a massive run sometime soon. Thanawat meanwhile is £1,700 behind Tony Drago and would need to run deep in Poland and hope for results to go his way to have any chance of tour survival.
In terms of actually winning the quarter, the form book doesn't really have anything to back up Bingham, Hawkins or Murphy in recent times or even Maguire based on his German Masters showing. In fact Bingham and Murphy are somehow due to meet in the Last 64, but Bingham hasn't quite been himself in 2014 so far, while Murphy has showed glimpses of his best form. Hawkins has also struggled lately throwing away big leads in the UK quarter-final, Last 16 of the Masters and in the Last 32 of last weeks German Masters. Maguire did look good in the Masters and in winning Championship League group 4, but he would have been disappointed not to have gone further than the Last 32 in Berlin. It is sure to be a very tight quarter and with the likes of Higgins and Mark Davis also in the quarter, there are several big players who could win it, but not many that you'd back going by their recent records.
Quarter winner: Stephen Maguire
Quarter 3
Last 128 Draw:Ricky Walden Vs Amateur Qualifier
Marcus Campbell Vs Andrew Higginson
Joel Walker Vs Amateur Qualifier
Andrew Norman Vs Dave Harold
Joe Swail Vs Ross Muir
Michael White Vs Craig Steadman
Alfie Burden Vs Noppon Saengkham
Jimmy Robertson Vs Andrew Pagett
Marco Fu Vs Amateur Qualifier
Nigel Bond Vs Hammad Miah
Sam Baird Vs Vinnie Calabrese
Luca Brecel Vs Amateur Qualifier
Barry Pinches Vs Amateur Qualifier
Pankaj Advani Vs Alex Borg
Ian Burns Vs Yu De Lu
Scott Donaldson Vs James Cahill
This quarter isn't exactly littered with top stars, but it is filled with a lot of people that need money in terms of the order of merit or the Prize money list. The likes of Ricky Walden, Marco Fu and Michael White will be among the favourites to win the quarter, but this quarter has the look about it of a surprise winner for sure, not that you'd like to try and name one from the capable players within it.
Firstly, looking at players fighting for Grand Final spots Joel Walker, Joe Swail and Luca Brecel are all players that are in with a shout of finishing in the top 24 on the OoM, while apart from that Michael White is the only other player in this quarter that could possibly make it, though he is £2,600 behind Shaun Murphy in 24th. As for Walker, he is himself £1,400 behind him and would therefore need at least a run to the Last 8 to have a good chance, with the same applying to Joe Swail who is £1,700 off of the pace, and Luca Brecel who is £2,100 adrift. On that evidence it is difficult to see any of them qualifying.
As for matters down the rankings and tour survival, the likes of Sam Baird, Luca Brecel and Joel Walker and Scott Donaldson all look certainties to gain tour cards via the Euro OoM with the lowest of those 4 (Donaldson) having a £2,000 cushion from unlucky 9th highest player not already qualified for the tour Martin O'Donnell. As for Ian Burns he is £1,100 clear of O'Donnell and 3 places above him, but he would still like a win or 2 this week (starting out against Yu De Lu) to be 100% of his tour place. The other player worth a look is Barry Pinches, who is 10th best not already qualified for next season, and is currently about £600 behind Drago holding the final tour card spot. So, if he can get a good couple of wins this week, starting against his amateur qualifier, he has every chance of gaining qualification for next year, what with being £9,000 behind on the money list.
As for a quarter winner, I have to make Marco Fu favourite despite his Last 64 exit in the German Masters, as he has been playing fairly well through the season, and in this quarter I can't really see many players stopping him to be honest. Ricky Walden had a week off last week which would have allowed him a good period of relaxation ahead of this one, and after a good comeback at the Masters you wouldn't put it past him to go far in this event. I have to say that one of Michael White, Andrew Higginson or even Luca Brecel could make it to a quarter win here, looking at the draw, but I couldn't trust myself to back one of them outright to do so.
Quarter Winner: Ricky Walden
Quarter 4
Last 128 Draw:David Gilbert Vs Cao Yupeng
David Grace Vs Amateur Qualifier
Mark Joyce Vs Ken Doherty
Gerard Greene Vs Zhang Anda
Kurt Maflin Vs Lee Page
Rod Lawler Vs Amateur Qualifier
Ben Woollaston Vs Rory McLeod
David Morris Vs Jamie Cope
Graeme Dott Vs Peter Ebdon
Stuart Carrington Vs Patrick Einslie
Neil Robertson Vs Amateur Qualifier
Alan McManus Vs Sean O'Sullivan
Fergal O'Brien Vs Alex Davies
Tony Drago Vs Liam Highfield
Dominic Dale Vs Dechawat Poomjaeng
Mark Williams Vs Liang Wenbo
This quarter sees the likes of Neil Robertson, Mark Williams, Graeme Dott and Dominic Dale battling it out as favourites to take the quarter, while the likes of Kurt Maflin, David Gilbert and Ben Woollaston are all capable of good outside runs to win this quarter. Meanwhile, we also have a few players that will be battling for tour and grand final spots.
Starting with the PTC grand final places, Graeme Dott, Fergal O'Brien and Kurt Maflin are the players within this section that all still have shots at making it into the top 24. Graeme currently sits in 27th around £1,100 behind 24th placed Murphy, meaning he still has a great chance of qualification if he could get a run to the Last 16 or quarter-finals. Fergal O'Brien sits just 2 spots behind Dott and £1,500 off of a grand final spot, realistically meaning he needs a place in the Last 8 to have any chance. Norwegian Kurt Maflin sits £1,800 behind Murphy which also means he will need to make at least the quarter-finals, but for a player of his class that is still well within his grasp.
Next up is the race for tour spots for next season, with the top 8 not already qualified from the OoM getting promotions to the tour for next season. In this quarter we have places 7 and 8 on that little list who are David Grace who is just £17 ahead of 8th placed Drago. This means they both have around £500 leads over the next best, and with Drago facing a fellow tour survival candidate in Liam Highfield (who needs the money being £11,000 behind on the Prize Money list) he isn't safe just yet, while Grace faces an amateur qualifier in round 1, but won't really be able to breath easy unless he can win this match and one more in Poland this weekend. We also have in this quarter Zhang Anda, who can't qualify from the OoM (barring unlikely results) but is only £7,000 behind on the money list and a decent run this weekend could boost his chances on that list.
Finally, for the quarter I'm struggling to see past Neil Robertson who has been a ton machine this season, and has already won 2 ranking events and was the runner-up in the 1st European Tour event, and he has been playing consistently well for most of the season. Mark Williams will probably provide the biggest challenge for the Australian on Saturday and Sunday having already won a PTC event this season, you wouldn't put it past Williams to do so again, though his form is a lot more in and out this season, and now that he is out of the Top 16 he does get much tougher draws than he would like in the full ranking events. Dotty and shoot-out winner Dale will also provide competition this week, with Dale in decent form, but Graeme's form is patchy at best these days, and he will have a lot of pressure on him this week as he will be fighting hard for every result to try and gain a Grand Final spot. Although, this could make him an even better shout for the quarter, putting everything and much more into every match this weekend as he always does, it's still tough to see him winning it though.
Quarter Winner: Neil Robertson
Tournament runner-up: Neil Robertson
Tournament Winner: Judd Trump
However, whatever happens throughout this weekend it is surely going to be very exciting for the viewers and extremely entertaining to keep track of all the permutations, and watch some incredibly nervous matches as there could be more twitches than a rabbits nose with the fight for Grand Finals spots and tour cards reaching a climax on Sunday evening. I hope you've enjoyed reading my preview and taking in all the possibilities for this weekend, and if you want to see how the OoM is looking after every match this weekend then head to snooker.org where their Provisional Euro Order of Merit will be updated as every result comes in throughout the 3 days of the event.
No comments:
Post a Comment