Wednesday, 22 April 2015

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS: Last 16 Update

As we reach the Last 16 stage of the World Championships, things really begin to hot up as the best-of-19's are swapped for three sessions best-of-25 frame matches, where players always feel like they have a session to more or less play themselves into the match, and of course at this stage all of the players left have avoided the dreaded Crucible first round exit and their title campaigns are well underway.

As this is published ahead of the first set of Last 16 games starting this afternoon and evening, we only actually know six of the eight last 16 ties with Shaun Murphy and Robin Hull concluding tonight while Judd Trump completes his match with Stuart Carrington this afternoon.

What have we seen so far? Well, Mark Selby managed to recover from losing 5 frames in a row from 8-4 ahead and cruising in the opening match against Kurt Maflin to find himself 9-8 down and knowing that any more major mistakes would cost him the match. As always though Mark dug in to win 10-9, while a hefty celebration followed. Four finishes greeted the Sunday crowds at the Crucible and amongst those we saw 2006 World Champion Graeme Dott who had to come through qualifying, see off International Champion Ricky Walden 10-8 from 7-6 down after Ricky hit two centuries in the match. Before that Marco Fu recovered well after a losing a lengthy thirteenth frame to lead 7-6 at the final mid-session break to make a good clearance to go 8-6 and go on to beat Jimmy Robertson 10-6. One Scot that guaranteed his place on Sunday night was John Higgins after a comfortable win against Robert Milkins, while the battle of the Scots between McGill and Maguire flicked this way and that. Anthony was in control after stealing the final frame of session one to go 6-3 up, and after leading 9-5, Maguire reeled off four great frames in a row to force a decider, but he didn't get a chance in it as McGill knocked in a fine century break, just as he did in his final qualifier against Mark King.

Monday came and with it plenty more drama as Barry Hawkins almost repeated his loss from 5-0 up 6-5 at the UK Championships having led Matt Selt 7-2 after session one and 9-4 at the final mid-session break, only for Selt to making two centuries and a 94 on the way to forcing a decider, only for Hawkins to hold it together and win 10-9. Next up Neil Robertson thumped Jamie Jones 10-2, and Stuart Bingham came from 5-4 behind to Robbie Williams after the first session to win 6 of the next 8 frames and the match 10-7. Meanwhile, Tuesday saw the completion of a superb turnaround from Ding Junhui, after Ding trailed 4-0 at one stage in the first session and at 5-3 at the beginning of session two to win 7 of the next 9 frames sending Mark Davis home 10-7. Ali Carter was next with a very strong performance against Alan McManus to win 10-5, and Mark Allen managed to get through comfortably in the end after winning nine straight frames from 3-1 down.

Ronnie O'Sullivan wasted no time on Wednesday morning in getting through to the Last 16 winning comfortably against debutant Craig Steadman, while Matthew Stevens turned the clock back with a great performance to beat Mark Williams 10-2. Joe Perry did the damage in his match with Zhang Anda very much in session one as he led 8-1 after the opening nine frames and eventually got over the line 10-4, while Shaun Murphy ended up beating Robin Hull 10-3 on Thursday, while Judd Trump overcame Stuart Carrington 10-6.

Last 32 Results:

Mark Selby 10-9 Kurt Maflin
Anthony McGill 10-9 Stephen Maguire
Joe Perry 10-4 Zhang Anda
Shaun Murphy 10-3 Robin Hull
Barry Hawkins 10-9 Matt Selt
Mark Allen 10-3 Ryan Day
Ali Carter 10-5 Alan McManus
Neil Robertson 10-2 Jamie Jones
Ding Junhui 10-7 Mark Davis
John Higgins 10-5 Robert Milkins
Marco Fu 10-6 Jimmy Robertson
Judd Trump 10-6 Stuart Carrington
Graeme Dott 10-8 Ricky Walden
Stuart Bingham 10-7 Robbie Williams
Matthew Stevens 10-2 Mark Williams
Ronnie O'Sullivan 10-3 Craig Steadman

What this has all set up is a fantastic set of games in the last 16 of the World Championships and a set of games that I could really see going either way. Here are some of my thoughts on them:

Last 16 Preview: (Picks in Bold)

Mark Selby Vs Anthony McGill - Both of these two guys went down to deciding frames in their opening round matches having each been comfortably ahead at one stage. Starting with Mark, he led 6-3 after the opening session against Maflin and made two centuries on the way to an 8-4 lead. However, from there he struggled and let Kurt back into the game and ended up trailing 9-8 after losing 5 on the trot and at that stage Mark's body language looked poor and he looked beaten. How he got through is simply down to his courageous attitude once again, and in the first half of the match he played pretty well. Having played one Crucible debutant in Kurt he now faces another in McGill who was very impressive in beating Maguire. To get to 9-5 ahead Anthony did need a little bit of luck, but he also played some very good snooker and once again showed his bottle with that deciding frame century break. All told I expect this to be a very close game, but one where on this occasion that overall experience and the Crucible experience especially may well tell over the course of three sessions.

Shaun Murphy Vs Joe Perry  - This for me is a really intriguing match now between two very evenly matched players. Shaun Murphy is the eighth seed for this event while Perry is the ninth seed after winning the Players Championship finals last month. Having now won a major ranking title Joe now says he believes he can take the big one here at the Crucible, while Murphy says that Joe will now know how to win and that this makes him a very dangerous opponent. Joe will be confident and his simple first round success was mainly down to going 8-0 in front against Zhang Anda who didn't settle in the first session. That killer instinct could be the difference this week for Perry as he fell short last year against Ronnie O'Sullivan in the last 16 losing 13-11 from 11-9 ahead. Shaun Murphy meanwhile seemed to be cueing as well as anyone else that played in the opening round when he took on Robin Hull. He was knocking in the long balls just as he does when he's at his best and the breaks were coming with that two, including a century in each session of the match. Shaun is feeling confident and says he enjoys coming to the Crucible just as much every year, while in my view 10 years is too long for him to not have won another World title and he surely feels the same way. Winning the Masters in January along with settling down in his personal life will put Murphy in the best position mentally and physically with his game than he ever has done.

Barry Hawkins Vs Mark Allen - These two guys had first round games of varying difficulty levels in round one. Barry Hawkins could've won easily on another day but Selt played superb from 9-4 to 9-9 before Barry won. After an early test to be 3-1 down to Ryan Day, Mark Allen soon kicked into gear and looked to be playing very well as he rattled off a total of 9 frames on the trot with some strong breaks to match. Barry has been struggling at times this season and even though he has the stronger Crucible record in recent years his confidence certainly won't be through the roof after some of the ups and downs he's had this season. Mark however, seems to be very fresh and well prepared for this seasons Championship and I think he could go very far indeed if he continues to cue as well as he seemed to be at times of the first round. He took some stopping last year by Neil Robertson who was sublime in that match to beat Allen, and I think he could at least go one better this year.

Neil Robertson Vs Ali Carter - Here we have another interesting match between a very well practiced Neil Robertson who was one of the stand out players in round one, while Ali Carter was impressive once more at the Crucible in his 10-5 win over McManus. Early doors, my view is that Neil Robertson is going to take someone playing seriously at the top of their game to beat him, as he's going to be scoring for fun and won't miss too much when he's in amongst them as the statement that he potted 300 balls in a row without missing in practice, which is still some feat just for a practice session. Ali Carter meanwhile will be pleased to win his first match back at the Crucible after cancer treatment, and to play well also he'll be very happy. He scored heavily against McManus but he'll be under much more pressure to make the most of his chances here, as Neil will be punishing him very heavily. The last couple of times they've played Robertson has thrashed Carter, and I think Neil will just be a little stronger.

Ding Junhui Vs John Higgins - This for me is set to be one of the closest matches of this entire round. Ding played very poorly in the early stages of the first session against Mark Davis, but once he settled down he played a lot better, scoring well as he does when he's in good form and if he can carry that on he'll be a real handful across these long matches. John Higgins wasn't tested too much in round one against Robert Milkins and was at times allowed to coast along in the match, but again his consistency was still very up and down as he could've lost the last three frames of the first session from 5-1, but after stealing frame nine it was his for the taking. John's going to be in need of keeping his levels up throughout the three sessions of this match, because if Ding can keep his temperament together he'll be very tough to beat.

Judd Trump Vs Marco Fu - This match should be an interesting one with both players playing at much different times of the week for their first round matches, meaning that one has had much longer off than the other. Marco Fu finished his first round match exactly a full week before he had to start up again for this one in the second one and it will be interesting to see how he goes in the early stages of the game as his tournament basically starts up again. He played reasonable snooker against Jimmy Robertson, but I think against a more experienced player like Judd he will be punished a lot more severely for the mistakes he makes, of which there were a few at times in that match, and he was lucky in some ways to get over the line. Judd Trump meanwhile has had a much shorter turnaround having only completed his first round match against Stuart Carrington on Thursday afternoon and despite being tested by Stuart Carrington who played very well in the second session from 7-2 down, Judd played some pretty solid snooker in round one without peaking too soon. That for me puts Trump in a sharper position and he usually has the edge when playing Fu over any format, as he showed during their 2013 last 16 match at the Crucible.

Stuart Bingham Vs Graeme Dott - It was very much a graft and a grind for Stuart Bingham and Graeme Dott to get through to the Last 16 here at the worlds. Stuart Bingham firstly, had to come from 5-4 down after the first session to win 10-7 as Robbie Williams very much faded in the evening session which was just as well seeing as Stuart was struggling with most aspects of his game in that match. Graeme Dott did have to play well in beating Ricky Walden 10-8 in round one in a match where both sessions followed a clear pattern. After winning the first frame in both sessions, Graeme then had to sit out as Ricky Walden played excellent snooker to win three frames in a row before the interval, including a century in each session. The frame after the interval in both sessions seemed to be the key as Ricky had a lead of other 50 points only to miss an easy ball and Graeme to do what he does and put together a gritty clearance to steal it. From there he took control and the context of each session changed dramatically. It may have gotten a little edgy towards the end of the match, but Graeme is a very gritty player with a lot of World Championship experience having won it once, and appearing in two other finals, while Stuart has never gotten down to the one table set-up at the worlds. I think this match will be close after two sessions, and if this is the case, I certainly favour Dott to win it in that situation.

Ronnie O'Sullivan Vs Matthew Stevens - Ronnie O'Sullivan wasn't in all guns blazing form in his first round tie, and certainly wasn't as sensational as a 10-3 score line suggests as Craig Steadman certainly had his chances. However, he seemed to be in a lot better place mentally and was well prepared, saying he's hungry for a sixth world title. Matthew Stevens is one man that will have something to say about that though. He played some brilliant stuff against Mark Williams who may have been playing poorly, but Stevens still made two centuries and looked to be back to top form and if he can repeat that against Ronnie over the course of three sessions and take the chances he is presented with he'll have a great chance. The one concern for me with Matthew is his consistency, which in the last couple of years has certainly been lacking from his game, and if there is one stage on which that can become evident it is in the World Championships over the duration of a three sessions match.


I think there is going to be plenty of great matches there with the potential to see even more deciders on top of the ones that have already been seen, and of course we are still yet to see the maximum that I predicted before the start of the Championships although we have already seen attempts featuring at least 10 reds and blacks from Jimmy Robertson, Ricky Walden, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Ding Junhui, so who knows what could happen...

I'll be back ahead of the start of the quarter-finals on Tuesday to preview what I think will happen in the last 8, along with another round-up of the action that will be seen in the next few days.

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