The big stories in qualifying is that every single player from world number 17 to the invitees that are not currently tour card holders have to play three best-of-19 frame qualifiers if they are to reach the holy grail of snooker, so you can certainly say that they have earned it. Ding Junhui is the surprise man that has to go through qualifying having been knocked out of the top 16, and as the number 17 seed from last year Michael White will tell you, winning the three matches for Ding is by no means something we can take for granted.
Despite the masses of Chinese players that are on the tour, none of them this year have automatically qualified despite Liang Wenbo also having had the chance to get into the elite 16. People will all have their favourites in qualifying including the all-time greats of Jimmy White and Steve Davis, who has entered the qualifiers this year in tribute to his father Bill who has sadly passed away.
Coming into the qualifiers there is little form to go on, because these are the longest matches the majority of the players will have played in professional competition since last years qualifiers. I'm sure there will be the usual balance of seasoned professionals and Crucible debutants that make it through the gruelling qualifying schedule, one that many players disagree with, but none more vocal than former world champion Peter Ebdon.
It's not all about qualifying for the Crucible though as players around the 64 mark will be battling to stay on the world snooker tour as players outside of the top 64 that do not have the security of being one year into a two year tour card at the end of this season, will be relegated from the tour and forced to go through qualifying school in May if they are to return.
What I am going to attempt to do is not only predict the winners of the 64 first qualifying round matches, but also the players that I think will come through the 16 qualifying sections, so here's a look at the draw in full:
Qualifying Section 1
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Ding Junhui Vs Greg Casey
Ross Muir Vs Sean O'Sullivan
Andrew Higginson Vs Nigel Bond
Gary Wilson Vs Leo Fernandez
Ding Junhui is obviously the big name in this section and all the talk is whether he can win the three matches required to qualify. Looking at his first round draw you would expect him to come through easily but then it gets tougher. Either Ross Muir or Sean O'Sullivan would prove tricky opposition and I expect that opening round match to be a close encounter which could prove beneficial to Ding if he comes through easily. I'm not sure how far the likes of Gary Wilson or Andrew Higginson could go in this section either. Higginson is inconsistent as a player nowadays though he did only miss out on the Crucible last year in a deciding frame to Robert Milkins, though his round one opponent this year is no pushover in Nigel Bond. Gary Wilson has had a very poor season indeed with no impressive results to speak of, though it would not be the biggest surprise if he did qualify as we have seen in the past he has the talent.
Predicted Qualifier: Ding Junhui
Qualifying Section 2
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Jamie Jones Vs Hamza Akbar
Ian Burns Vs Duane Jones
Gerard Greene Vs Jimmy White
Peter Ebdon Vs James Wattana
This section probably has greater importance on the top 64 battle than any other. The pressure will be on both of Ian Burns who is 64th and Gerard Greene in 65th to get first round victories. Greene has been out of form all year and his ranking is probably a fair reflection of that and I think the pressure could prove too much against Jimmy White who is certainly still good enough to do a job on someone like Greene. Ian Burns faces Duane Jones who has not exactly entered everything since earning his tour card through Q School and Burns will be buoyed by the fact that he overcame Peter Ebdon 5-0 in China to get inside the top 64 but he still needs at least one win to stay there and possibly two depending on other results. Jamie Jones is the favourite to qualify from this section I would say as Peter Ebdon has been very hit and miss in the last year or two and three qualifying matches may prove too much for him, but someone like Burns has the quality to win the three matches and certainly the extra incentive too.
Predicted Qualifier: Ian Burns
Qualifying Section 3
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Ben Woollaston Vs Chris Wakelin
Anthony Hamilton Vs Sydney Wilson
Robbie Williams Vs Gareth Allen
Mark Joyce Vs Zak Surety
Anthony Hamilton is in the tour survival battle too but he is not in the firing line as much. He would regain a fresh two year tour card through the European Order of Merit, though the form he showed whenever I watched him at the Welsh Open demonstrated that he could still qualify for the Crucible though that would still not prove enough to get him into the top 64. Robbie Williams is an interesting name in this section. He has qualified for the Crucible in both of the last two years but has done very little of any note this season and a tough draw stands between him and making that three on the trot. Ben Woollaston is probably the favourite after a season that has seen further improvement in his game and some very solid results in the last couple of months. I would be a little surprised if he did not appear at the Crucible this year.
Predicted Qualifier: Ben Woollaston
Qualifying Section 4
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Mike Dunn Vs James Cahill
Li Hang Vs Lu Chenwei
Michael Georgiou Vs Noppon Saengkham
Graeme Dott Vs Brandon Sargeant
This is another interesting section and has been made more interesting by recent events in the China Open. Noppon Saengkham appears to have found a great deal of form there in making the quarter-finals by beating notable players such as Neil Robertson and someone who is in this section in Graeme Dott. You would still expect a player of Dott's match play quality to have a good go at qualifying and it is worth pointing out that he made the Last 16 at the Crucible last year after failing to qualify in 2014. Mike Dunn could be a contender after a pretty solid season that saw him recently reach only his second ranking quarter-final at the Players Championship. I have looked even further outside of the box though in the shape of Li Hang. Last year he fell just a deciding frame shy of qualification against Stuart Carrington and whenever I watch him I am impressed by his play and scoring power in particular, and I think he could be a good shout to qualify for the Crucible based on that.
Predicted Qualifier: Li Hang
Qualifying Section 5
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Robert Milkins Vs Ka Wai Cheung
Joel Walker Vs Scott Donaldson
Kurt Maflin Vs Sanderson Lam
Rod Lawler Vs Zhao Xintong
This is one of the most interesting sections in the draw. Only a few places separate Scott Donaldson and Joel Walker in the rankings but I cannot really think of many good results that Walker has had this season whereas Donaldson seems like more of a quality match player. Robert Milkins should not slip up against the world under 18 champion but you never know and he is probably the favourite to qualify from this section overall with his experience of doing so on several occasions. Kurt Maflin has had a shocking season given the way he finished last year, with the China Open semi-final and then nearly beating defending world champion Mark Selby on the first day at the Crucible. Zhao Xintong meanwhile may have only just turned 19 but he is a huge nuisance in this draw and Rod Lawler is the unlucky player to have drawn him in round one. Xintong is a huge talent and some of his scoring power could prove a greater factor over the longer distance, but the sloppy mistakes he makes may also cost him dearly.
Predicted Qualifier: Robert Milkins
Qualifying Section 6
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Mark King Vs Fraser Patrick
David Grace Vs Brendan O'Donoghue
Peter Lines Vs Ng On Yee
Michael Holt Vs Michael Wild
Plenty more solid players in this section and not one that stands out in particular. Peter Lines has the ladies world champion in round one, which is not a nice draw to have when you need to qualify for the Crucible to save your tour place essentially. David Grace showed what he was about in the UK Championships and if he could bring that out in Ponds Forge I would not be surprised to see him at the Crucible. Michael Holt and Mark King have had solid seasons though for players of their respective rankings and after the pair both missed out in the final qualifying round last year they will be determined to put that right. King has been in particularly good form on the European Tour but also made it into the China Open quarter-finals with some great wins before narrowly losing out to eventual winner Judd Trump and I think he will come to Ponds Forge this year with a lot more confidence, and we all know how good he can be at his best.
Predicted Qualifier: Mark King
Qualifying Section 7
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Alan McManus Vs Michael Wasley
David Morris Vs Chris Melling
Stuart Carrington Vs Hammad Miah
Jimmy Robertson Vs Tyler Rees
This section is another important one for the likes of Stuart Carrington and David Morris who are battling for their tour places. First up with Carrington, he was forced to pull out of the China Open with what was reported to be a back problem so hopefully for his sake (as he is 63rd on the provisional seedings and needs at least one win, and possibly two to stay on tour) that issue has cleared up and he can give this his best go. Hammad Miah proves a more than tricky opponent in round one as he appears to have improved a great deal since dropping off of the tour. Perhaps that was the wake up call he needed. Morris meanwhile takes on Chris Melling, who in last years World Championship qualifiers lost out 10-1 to Li Hang. Melling is almost certain to drop off of the tour and is not the worst opponent that Morris could have. The Irishman needs to win at least his match with Melling, but more than likely will need to make it to the final qualifying round to have any chance of breaking into the top 64. I do rate Morris highly though and think he has the quality to survive one way or another. Alan McManus is always a big name in the qualifying draw so Michael Wasley will not enjoy having drawn such a solid player in round one. My pick from this section though is Jimmy Robertson who was another player who qualified last season and is someone who continues to impress me. His heavy scoring is a big factor in matches and on the whole I think he is improving nicely into someone who should soon break into the top 32.
Predicted Qualifier: Jimmy Robertson
Qualifying Section 8
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Tian Pengfei Vs Hossein Vafei Ayouri
Ken Doherty Vs Andy Hicks
Alfie Burden Vs Tony Drago
Ryan Day Vs Daniel Wells
This section is another very interesting one to have to pick a winner from. Ryan Day is the favourite but I wonder if he may struggle after a couple of bad performances when he still had the chance to go deep into an event and qualify for the Crucible automatically. His draw is by no means easy with Daniel Wells who I think has showed some good improvements since his previous time on the tour and he can score just as well as Day on his...day. Alfie Burden showed what he could do in Beijing by beating Joe Perry 5-0 and making the quarter-finals and someone of his quality and experience could easily win the three best-of-19 matches required to get through. Ken Doherty has struggled this year while Andy Hicks has given plenty of players a tough time and I think that will be the same again here. Arguably the tie of the entire round is Tian Pengfei against Hossein Vafei Ayouri as the qualifier could well come from this match. Hossein has recently had a couple of maximums in practice, and at the start of the season he impressed by qualifying for the Australian Open with four wins. Little has happened for him since while Tian Pengfei has been in fantastic form this season. A finalist on the European Tour he also had runs in the International Championship and more recently the China Open when he was beaten in a Last 16 decider by eventual runner-up Ricky Walden. The Chinese player is certainly the form man in this section.
Predicted Qualifier: Tian Pengfei
Qualifying Section 9
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Kyren Wilson Vs Jason Weston
Martin O'Donnell Vs Kuldesh Johal
Joe Swail Vs Zhang Yong
Matthew Stevens Vs Josh Boileau
This section for me is all about Kyren Wilson. He has been easily the most improved player of the season and one of the best players in 2015/2016 overall, it would be a real shame if he did not come through the three matches needed to make the Crucible. His draw could be a lot worse, though Martin O'Donnell has upset the odds in a lot of matches he's played in the last couple of months and you have to wonder if he could the same again here. Matthew Stevens qualified last year but has struggled again this season with his best snooker in my view coming in the Welsh Open. Joe Swail is still capable of getting done also and after reaching the UK Championship Last 16 amongst other results this year he will be hoping to finish the year well.
Predicted Qualifier: Kyren Wilson
Qualifying Section 10
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Thepchaiya Un-Nooh Vs Akani Sondsermsawad
Yu De Lu Vs Paul Davison
Craig Steadman Vs Michael Leslie
Anthony McGill Vs Hatem Yassin
This is a tricky little section to call. First up we have Craig Steadman who qualified last year for the Crucible but since then has struggled. Now at 66 on the provisional seedings he has work on his hands to even stay on the tour for next year and probably needs to get two wins to have any chance. Anthony McGill also qualified last year but has not reached anywhere near the same heights of his World Championship Quarter-final again this season which will disappoint him. His first round draw is one of the easiest going you would think so that could help him on his way. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh has had a brilliant season reaching the quarter-finals of the World Grand Prix and the semi-finals of the International Championships and proved very entertaining to watch as well as a quality player once more. He has a fellow Thai in round one who has not played a match since earning his tour card at the start of this season so that should help Thepchaiya and I could see him going from strength to strength if he is close to his best. Yu De Lu could also prove a threat, as I do not feel we have seen the best of him this year, after being beaten in three full ranking tournaments at the Last 64 against Marco Fu. Not the best draw you could ask for. For me either Un-Nooh or De Lu will come out on top in this section.
Predicted Qualifier: Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Qualifying Section 11
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Luca Brecel Vs Steven Hallworth
Liam Highfield Vs Luke Simmonds
Sam Baird Vs Thor Chuan Leong
Tom Ford Vs Darryl Hill
In my opinion this could be the most entertaining qualifying section out of all 16. In the seeded players of Brecel, Highfield, Baird and Ford we have four very fluent, heavy scoring and entertaining players to watch. At the top of their game any one of them could go on to qualify for the Crucible which also makes it a tight call to make. Luca Brecel is someone who continues to impress me. Making the German Masters final feels like it will be a big step forward in his career as he now has now got the taste of what success could be like. I witnessed close up a win against Shaun Murphy in the Welsh Open when the young Belgian was not even at his best which was a great result. Liam Highfield has plenty of grit and determination as he showed in the Gdynia Open to beat Robin Hull 4-3 from 3-0 down and give himself half a chance of getting a new tour card via the European order of merit, should he not finish the next week inside of the top 64. Sam Baird has had another good year by qualifying for the Players Championship finals and I still think he could get a lot higher in the rankings in years to come. Tom Ford has also improved a lot this year by making the Last 16 in the Grand Prix and the UK Championships as well as making a European Tour event final and the last time he qualified for the Crucible in 2014 he beat Brecel 10-3 in one of his qualifying victories so he too is more than capable.
Predicted Qualifier: Luca Brecel
Qualifying Section 12
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Jack Lisowski Vs Alex Taubman
Rory McLeod Vs Lukas Kleckers
Lee Walker Vs Conor McCormack
David Gilbert Vs Rhys Clark
A case could be made for plenty too in this section. Jack Lisowski has been working with Terry Griffiths this season and showed small signs of improvement in his results but this will be the big test for him. Crucible qualification would show that this work is really paying off. Rory McLeod has had a much more solid season winning a European Tour and most recently getting into the China Open last 16. Over two sessions, McLeod is the type of player that can really test your mental strength as he can break many a player with his playing style. I think David Gilbert and Rhys Clark could be a big match in this section. Gilbert has been much improved this year making the International final and the Last 16 of the China Open (losing in both to John Higgins) as well as some decent showings on the European Tour. I remember one of his most impressive career displays came in 2012 when he made the World Championship Last 16 after winning plenty of matches to qualify, showing what he can do under the longer format. Rhys Clark has had some great results since coming through Q School at the start of the season. He seems to be a very heavy scorer as he showed in the recent China Open when he lost 5-4 to Alfie Burden in the Last 32 despite four 50+ contributions. In 2014 he thrashed Mike Dunn 10-3 as an amateur and he could prove more than a match for Gilbert in round one here.
Predicted Qualifier: Rory McLeod
Qualifying Section 13
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Matt Selt Vs Igor Figueredo
Mitchell Mann Vs Kishan Hirani
Robin Hull Vs Barry Pinches
Dechawat Poomjaeng Vs Eden Sharav
This is another very keenly contested section of the draw. Two of the eight players reached the final qualifying round last year, two of the eight qualified and another appeared in the Last 16 as recently as 2013. Starting with Mitchell Mann I fully expected him to do well in qualifying last season after having a good first season on tour and he did not disappoint by reaching the final qualifying round before losing to Alan McManus. He has found a bit more form recently with a good run in Gdynia as well as beating Mark Allen to qualify for China and falling just short of a victory against Shaun Murphy in Cardiff. He could well go one step further this week. Robin Hull meanwhile has qualified for the Crucible in both of the last two years winning four matches in the first of those two years, but if you look back at the score lines he did not scrape through any of his qualifying matches in either campaign. In fact he battered his opponents. Hull is a much better player than his ranking suggests and as long as he has fully recovered from the illness that kept him from travelling to the China Open then he is a major contender to qualify. At his best his power scoring is too much for a lot of players to compete with. Igor Figueredo is one of the players that was on the receiving end of that a year ago, when he lost to Hull in the final qualifying round. The Brazilian does not prove an easy opponent for Matt Selt after winning a couple of matches in qualifying in both of the last two years after not competing much in tournaments in either season. Selt though is much improved over the last couple of years and will be a tough player to beat in these qualifiers, but by no means unbeatable. Dechawat Poomjaeng will also be a tough player to beat. Behind all of the shenanigans and antics he brings to a match is a quality snooker player who can score heavily and is a top match player. I have often been guilty of under rating Dechawat but it clicked with me when I watched him live at the Welsh Open really how good he is. His run to the Last 16 in 2013 would not have been achieved otherwise.
Predicted Qualifier: Dechawat Poomjaeng
Qualifying Section 14
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Fergal O'Brien Vs Steve Davis
Zhou Yuelong Vs Dylan Craig
Zhang Anda Vs Bratislev Krustev
Mark Davis Vs Adam Duffy
The stand out match in this qualifying section is the six times world champion and legend that is Steve Davis against another top quality player in Fergal O'Brien. Davis no longer competes on the tour as much, and has not played a competitive match this season but has chosen to enter this as a tribute to his father who was a massive part of developing one of the best players that has ever picked up a cue. In Fergal he faces someone that has missed out on qualifying for the World Championship final stages in both 2014 and 2015 in final qualifying round deciding frames. He'll be more determined than ever to qualify this year for that very reason. Zhang Anda did qualify last year in a deciding frame over Liang Wenbo, but has been a bit hit and miss again since. The return of the longer format could do him good though. Mark Davis has started to drop down the rankings this year, and after qualifying for last years World Championship he surrendered a decent lead in round one at the Crucible to Ding Junhui. He will need to be at the top of his game against Adam Duffy who indeed beat Ding Junhui in the UK Championships and won two matches as an amateur in last years World Championship qualifying including one against Martin Gould who is well inside the top 16 a year on. Duffy narrowly missed out on getting back on the tour through Q School and not only do I think that he will earn his tour card for next season, but I think he is going to prove why I think that against Davis. The player I fancy most in this section though is young Zhou Yuelong. He has the heavy scoring to batter opponents over a longer format when he will get plenty of chances, and he can take a lot from being beaten by some top players in good form in big events this year. After just two years on tour he is breezed into the top 64 and could be in the 50 with a good run in qualifying this year. I predicted him to qualify last year but he has improved even more a year on.
Predicted Qualifier: Zhou Yuelong
Qualifying Section 15
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Ali Carter Vs Mateuz Baranowski
Cao Yupeng Vs Rodion Judin
Oliver Lines Vs Lu Ning
Dominic Dale Vs Ian Glover
This section is all about the four seeded players for me. Ali Carter as a twice former world finalist is the obvious favourite to qualify and rightly so as he is a quality player, particularly over the longer format where he should outclass some of the opposition that he faces here. Cao Yupeng is under pressure needing to most likely qualify to save his tour card, and though he qualified in 2012 he has not showed anything like that form in the last year. Dominic Dale got as far as the quarter-finals in 2014 and he is probably the biggest threat to Carter qualifying as he should ease past Glover in round one and has been in good form over the last month. Based upon that form I would think he would beat Oli Lines too who still has improvements to make in my view before he qualifies for the World Championship, but as such a young player he has plenty of time to make them too.
Predicted Qualifier: Ali Carter
Qualifying Section 16
First Qualifying Round: (Picks in Bold)Xiao Guodong Vs Allan Taylor
Jamie Burnett Vs Jamie Clarke
Jamie Cope Vs Ashley Hugill
Liang Wenbo Vs Joe O'Connor
Finally, we come to a section that I believe UK Championship runner-up Liang Wenbo will dominate. Xiao Guodong has had a woeful season this season and looked frighteningly incapable of winning when I saw him at the Welsh Open (losing 4-1 in the Last 128 to James Cahill) and on the one year money list he is well down in the 70's. A shadow of a man who two seasons ago reached the Shanghai Masters final and qualified for the Crucible narrowly losing in round one to Ali Carter. Jamie Burnett has had a similar year but for a surprise run to the UK Championship Last 16. At times the Scot simply looks like he cannot be bothered. Jamie Clarke will prove a very tough first round opponent for him in round one as Clarke could twice have earned his tour card in the last year, losing out narrowly in the finals of big amateur events. Jamie Cope had a good start to the year when he won the four matches to qualify for the Shanghai Masters and then reached the last 16, but since then his results have been similar to that of last seasons, when he finished out of the top 64 and got back on tour through the European Order of Merit. Ashley Hugill is his opponent and a top amateur player who has beaten Neil Robertson this season and will be more than a match for Cope if he continues to play the way he has in professional competition this year. For me it has to be Liang Wenbo despite two first round exits in the Players Championship and China Open which you would say denied him an automatic Crucible berth, but he is no stranger to qualifying and has a pretty nice section of the draw here so long as he plays to a decent standard.
Predicted Qualifier: Liang Wenbo
I will be keeping the blog updated throughout the qualifiers, with previews of the second and third qualifying rounds along with any notable news from the matches in rounds previously. Selected matches will be streamed by World Snooker's streaming service and will also appear on the betting sites that usually stream snooker events I would imagine.
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