Thursday, 15 September 2016

Shanghai Masters: STAT ATTACK

As the season really gets going it's time for the return of a feature that debuted for this event last year - the "Stat Attack".

Once again most of the statistics you will see in this blog come from the fantastic CueTracker.net and Snooker.org resources and we cannot really thank them enough for the hard work they put into their websites.

On top of that we have a few statistics that you will have seen mentioned in my "Tournament Top Ten" blog that I have been collating and working on for use in these types of blogs. All statistics that will be used in these blogs have relevance in telling you how players perform in the key aspects of the game of snooker, how they perform in this event or how they shape up against their early round opponents. 

HEAD TO HEAD 

- When Ricky Walden meets Michael White in round one, White will be hoping to get only his second victory against Walden, with his only one to date being in the final of the Indian Open in 2015

- Barry Hawkins and Robert Milkins who also meet in the Last 32 stages will play only their second competitive match outside of the Championship League since 2003. The most recent meeting since then was in the Players Championship finals in March which Hawkins won 4-3.

- Surprisingly the match between Jamie Jones and Stuart Bingham will see them meet for the first time outside of the Snooker Shoot-Out (which produced meetings in 2012 and 2015).

- One match catches the eye in the Wildcard Round as Martin Gould was drawn to play Yuan Sijun. In one previous meeting, Yuan beat Gould 5-0 in the 2016 China Open.

- If Michael Holt gets through his wildcard match he will face Kyren Wilson for the third time in Shanghai. Wilson saw off Holt 5-1 in the Last 16 on the way to taking the title a year ago, while Holt was the victor when they met in the quarter-finals in 2013.

- Interestingly, if Stephen Maguire comes through the wildcard he will meet Shaun Murphy which may provide a good omen for Murphy if he comes out the winner. The last three times he has beaten Maguire he has gone on to win the tournament (2015 Masters, 2014 Bulgarian Open, 2014 Gdynia Open) and he has also done this on two further occasions in the past (2008 UK Championship, 2008 Malta Cup). 

SHANGHAI MASTERS STATS

- The 2016 Shanghai Masters is the tenth staging of this event, with the nine previous editions providing nine different winners of the title. Only 2007 champion Dominic Dale of those nine has not qualified last year so there is a chance that could come to an end. 

- Stuart Bingham has won more money from the Shanghai Masters than any other player, whilst Mark Selby, Ding Junhui and John Higgins follow closely behind him.

- Mark Williams has collected the most prize money in Shanghai Masters history of the players never to have actually won the title, falling seventh on the overall list. Judd Trump's two runner-up showings have earned him the second most in this regard, putting him ninth on the overall list. 

- Ryan Day has the highest win percentage of players never to have won the Shanghai Masters (though this does take into account his qualifying round victories also)

- With 13 deciders played in Shanghai Masters history, Shaun Murphy has played in more Shanghai deciders than any other player, having played in at least one in every tournament since 2010. 


PLAYER PERFORMANCES: KEY ASPECTS 

- In an odd statistic, out of the four ranking events so far this season, Stuart Bingham has already lost to the winner in two of them, losing to Anthony McGill in the Indian Open Last 16 and Ali Carter in the Last 32 of the World Open.

- A number of statistics on the 32 players in the field this week should be able to tell how they have been going this season so far in the key aspects of the game. Starting with 50+ breaks, Neil Robertson leads the field for average frames per 50 break or above averaging just 1.88 for each of his so far this season. Anthony McGill comes in a close second after his good early season form, while Trump lies third with an average of 2.38 frames per 50+ while Mark Allen follows closely in fourth despite having only played in the Paul Hunter Classic, while Shaun Murphy completes the top 5 in this statistic. Of the top 16 seeds, Stuart Bingham ranks lowest in this regard with an average of 3.77 frames per 50+ break in the early season (excluding the non-ranking 6 Reds Championship - given also it's different rules for play).

- The next statistic that I have been working on and looking at closely is the average contribution when a player makes a 50+ break. As only 50+ breaks a released with the frame scores this is the closest thing we can get to an average scoring visit statistic. In Liang Wenbo's performances across the Paul Hunter Classic and World Open (all statistics for key aspects do not include the qualifying stages for this tournament nor the 6 Reds) he climbed to the top with an average of 88.82 that will surely level off a bit as the season goes by. John Higgins comes in second with an average contribution of 83.32 when he makes a break of 50+, while David Gilbert follows closely in third which aligns well with how much he appears to be improving as a player. Joe Perry's excellent scoring during the World Open helps him into fourth, while Matthew Selt somewhat surprisingly makes up the top five. Ricky Walden has the lowest average this season so far of the top 16 seeds this week, and the fourth lowest overall (excluding Ronnie O'Sullivan who is the only player yet to play a tournament this year) with an average break of 69 when he makes a contribution of 50 or above, while Judd Trump and Barry Hawkins also have lower averages by comparison.

- When it comes to a close frames win percentage it is first important to put a number on what a close frame can be classed as (when you only have frame scores to go on in most cases, and when the need with statistics is to be very strict or rigid) so the number I have put on it is when 20 points or less was in the frame. When all players were ranked for their performances in the first four full ranking events (6 Reds and Shanghai Masters qualifying again excluded for reasons previously given) it was again Liang Wenbo that topped the charts with a win percentage of 83.33. Marco Fu follows closely in second, before there is very little to separate the next three of Anthony McGill in third, Kyren Wilson in fourth and Mark Selby making up the top five (percentages of 78.57, 77.78 and 76.29 respectively). A gap of nearly ten percent is the difference between Selby and the next best in a big group in joint sixth place that includes David Gilbert, Neil Robertson and Ding Junhui. Michael White is bottom of the pile having only won only 11.11% of these close frames where the points difference was 20 or less.

- With scoring weight, scoring frequency, ability to win the closer, more tactical frames all dealt with there is also a place for looking at who has the bottle when it comes to winning the close matches that end up in deciding frames. John Higgins has a 100% decider hit rate with three wins from three played this season, Michael Holt meanwhile has a hit rate of 80% from the opening four ranking events with four wins out of 5 (the solitary decider defeat coming against Higgins). A number of other players have a 100% hit rate in deciders but at this early stage in the season have only played 1 or 2 such as Mark Selby, Neil Robertson, Liang Wenbo, Kyren Wilson, David Gilbert, Joe Perry and Shaun Murphy have done.

- Neil Robertson has the highest win percentage of those in the field this week, having only played two tournaments and won one of those. His overall percentage is 92.31 with 12 wins from 13 matches. Anthony McGill has a record of 16 wins from 19 matches (excluding his win in qualifying for this event) giving him a percentage of 84.21, whilst Mark Selby, Shaun Murphy and Ali Carter all also have win percentages of above 80 at this early stage of the season.



The key thing this should all have provided is a big insight in to the upcoming Shanghai Masters, particularly in how players rank in what can be viewed as the key aspects of winning snooker matches and tournaments, as well as showing how the season has gone so far and what we can expect in the upcoming times. 

Tomorrow will see my full tournament preview round all of the statistics and analysis of the last two days blogs up and provide you with my choice to win in Shanghai next week. 

Don't forget it is not too late to view my "Tournament Top Ten" blog where analysis, spreadsheets and a points scoring system provided the ten players that "should" do well in Shanghai and this can all be viewed here: 
http://cueactionsnookerblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/shanghai-masters-annisons-analysis.html 

It is also not too late to sign up for this season's Fantasy Snooker competition with a set of re-vamped rules, and all the information on that is in this blog: 
http://cueactionsnookerblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/20152016-fantasy-snooker-league.html 

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