While the European Masters is ongoing in Romania, Monday sees the start of the English Open in Manchester, another of the new events that has been added to the calendar and the first of the home series events in the 2016/2017 season. Following my "Stat Attack" the build up to this event continues with the Tournament Top Ten which will rank the contenders based on the statistics that were also mentioned in the Stat Attack, as well as the most recent events with the Shanghai Masters, Paul Hunter Classic and the European Masters (which is down to the semi-finals at the time of writing). As always I have tried to put similar events into this generator as well, and the one that sticks out is the Welsh Open as all of the home series events this year are based on the format of the Welsh Open from 2014 to 2016.
The statistics used in the generator were the average frames per 50+ break, average break when above 50, close frames win percentage, average frame aggregate and the quarter-finals or better since the start of 2014/2015 list, which were all explained in the first two tournament top ten blogs, and my Stat Attack blog from earlier in the week.
With all of that in mind, here is who the stats and facts think the major contenders will be in the upcoming English Open.
10 - Joe Perry - Just making it on to the top ten list for the upcoming week is Joe Perry. Perry started the season well by getting to the final of the World Open, though by this point in the season this should get less of a consideration. When taking into the account the similarity between this event and the Welsh Open, particularly between 2014 and 2016, you find that in 2014 and 2016 Perry was a semi-finalist. This could mean that his game suits this kind of format of the short matches, but not having to play multiple times in one day like on the old European Tour. However, there has been little else to cheer for Perry in the most recent events which is why he finds himself so low on the list.
9 - Anthony McGill - Anthony McGill has had a brilliant start to the season, winning his first ranking event at the Indian Open, though like the World Open, this one has been given slightly less importance in the generator as it was so early in the season and there have now been a few events in quick succession through September. McGill was boosted by a run to the quarter-finals of the ongoing European Masters beating Ali Carter along the way (who very narrowly missed out on making the top ten). The Scotsman has shaped up well statistically in this first part of the season so far, sitting fifth in the frames per 50+ break statistic and topping the average frame aggregate (when these statistics were calculated before the European Masters quarter-finals). Without a quieter period through the Paul Hunter Classic and Shanghai Masters, and no notable finishes in the most recent editions of the Welsh Open, McGill would be much higher on this list.
8 - Mark Allen - Next up on the list is Mark Allen who won the Players Championship in March, at the venue where the English Open is being played. Having only played in three events this season at the Paul Hunter Classic, Shanghai Masters and European Masters Allen has made the Last 16 in them all and will be looking to push on this week. When it comes to the Welsh Open's relation to this event, you will see that Allen was a losing semi-finalist at the most recent edition in Cardiff back in February. He also stands highly in a couple of statistics coming into this week, sitting third in frames per 50+ break when the statistics were calculated before the quarter-finals of the European Masters, and also coming in third place for the average frames aggregate. All of this puts Allen comfortably in the top ten at eighth, without threatening the top spots.
7 - Stephen Maguire - Stephen Maguire is a player who has found some form of late with his run to the semi-finals of the Shanghai Masters, which is one of the main reasons that he features on the list this week, despite an early exit at the European Masters and not entering the Paul Hunter Classic. When it comes to similarity with the Welsh Open, Maguire was a quarter-finalist in Cardiff back in 2015 which also improves his standing for this week. He also has the backing of the numbers, sitting joint fifth for Quarter-finals or better over the last two and a bit seasons, whilst he was first for close frames win percentage when the statistics were calculated ahead of the week. Overall, seventh is a very handy good position on the list given who is ahead of him.
6 - Judd Trump - One of four guys still competing at the European Masters is Judd Trump who has made it through to the semi-finals this week. He also made the Last 16 of the Shanghai Masters, as well as repeating this finish in the last three stagings of the Welsh Open from 2014 to 2016 in the familiarity stakes, which slightly improves his position on the list for the upcoming week. Trump is present in the top five on a couple of statistics additionally, leading the tour for quarter-finals or better since the beginning of the 2014/2015, including his semi-final appearance in the ongoing European Masters. In addition, he was fifth on the average frames aggregate list when all of these statistics were calculated for the upcoming week.
5 - John Higgins - Higgins may have been beaten by Trump in the quarter-finals of the European Masters, but he still finishes just ahead of him on the tournament top ten list for the English Open. As well as a quarter-final place in Romania, Higgins made was in the Last 16 of the Shanghai Masters, but the bulk of the reason for his standing this week is the fact that in the similarly structured Welsh Open he was a winner back in 2015, and a quarter-finalist in 2014 on top of that. He joins his fellow Scotsman Maguire in joint fifth on the quarter-finals or better list, as well as sitting in second place on the average break when 50 or above list. With quite a gap between fifth and sixth on the tournament top ten list in terms of the points each player gains from their finishes in tournaments and all of these list, but the narrow gaps from fifth to the top spot, this is where the top contenders are.
4 - Neil Robertson - Neil Robertson is another of the semi-finalists in the ongoing European Masters in Bucharest, and has already been a tournament winner this season at the Riga Masters, though the prominence of this win so early in the season has been downgraded for this week. Robertson's high placing on the tournament top ten list is assisted by a runners-up finish at the most recent Welsh Open in February, with it's mirror image format and on top of that he features in the top five in more of the key statistics lists than anyone else. He sits in joint second position on the quarter-finals or better tally, together with a top of the table finish in the frames per 50+ break list. Finally, Robertson is second in the average frame aggregate (which is a combination of average points scored per frame and average points conceded per frame) so there are plenty of reasons why Robertson could be the top man in Manchester.
3 - Ronnie O'Sullivan - Having committed to playing in all four of the home nations events at this stage, O'Sullivan will want to be the top man and there is no reason he could not manage this looking at his finishes. He is another of the players still competing at the European Masters having made the semi-finals there. The greatest quantity of O'Sullivan's points ahead of the English Open comes from the similarly structured Welsh Open where he was champion in both 2014 and 2016, showing there is something about that style of event that certainly suits his game, and allows him to apply himself fully mentally as well. Statistically, O'Sullivan also features in second spot on the average frames per 50+ break statistic at the time those were calculated before the quarter-final stages in Romania. All in all O'Sullivan is one of the big favourites coming into this event.
2 - Mark Selby - The runners-up position on the list this week belongs to Mark Selby. Selby appears to be very close to the top of his form at the moment, having made it to the European Masters semi-finals at the time of writing, in addition to making the final of the Shanghai Masters and winning the Paul Hunter Classic. Twice in the last three years of the mirrored Welsh Open, Selby has reached the quarter-finals and will be looking to translate that and all of his current form to the English Open. Lastly, the current world champion is joint second on the quarter-finals or better tally since the start of the 2014/2015 season, but his form this season alone will see him as a contender for every event he is in.
1 - Ding Junhui - That leaves Ding Junhui to be the table topper in the tournament top ten for the English Open. Ding pulled out of the European Masters and did not enter the Paul Hunter Classic but in between those he was the champion at the Shanghai Masters marking his full return to form over the course of 2016. In the Welsh Open, which really is one of the key indicators for this week in my view, Ding was a runner-up to O'Sullivan in 2014 and made the quarter-finals this year so he will be hoping that translates to Manchester. When it comes to the numbers, the Chinese number one is in joint fifth on the quarter-finals or better tally, in addition to a fourth place standing in the frames per 50+ break statistic and that scoring could be the key to success for a fresh Ding Junhui in Manchester.
That's who the main contenders should be, but that is not to say that someone will come from out of the pack and upset the odds to take victory over the next week. The tournament top ten has worked well so far with 2nd place on the list winning in Shanghai and ahead of the European Masters semi-finals, the four remaining players ranked at 1st, 3rd, 5th and 7th on the tournament top ten before the week.
Don't forget, the Stat Attack is out and can be viewed here:
http://cueactionsnookerblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/english-open-stat-attack.html
Tomorrow, all of the pre-tournament analysis will be rounded off with the overall tournament preview where the Quarter choices will be made and the winner selection will be finalised so watch out for that.
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