Saturday 5 November 2016

Champion of Champions: Stat Attack

Ahead of this weeks Champion of Champions there is the usual statistical offering on the blog featuring interesting notes from the three previous stagings of this event in Coventry, head to heads for all of the first round matches and of course my statistics on average frames per 50+ breaks, average break when 50 or above, close frame win percentage and the average frame aggregate. Once again this week I will be enhancing this analysis with graphs and tables to try and make things much more visual once again.

TOURNAMENT SPECIFIC STATISTICS 

- Despite playing in each of the first three Champion of Champions events, Shaun Murphy has never won a match in the tournament losing first round matches to Mark Selby, Marco Fu and Yan Bingtao in his three attempts.

- His first round opponent is John Higgins who has only won one single match over three appearances in the Champion of Champions, getting to the quarter-finals in 2015 but losing in the first round in both 2013 and 2014. Also, two of his three Champion of Champions defeats have been in deciding frames.

- The only two times Ronnie O'Sullivan has entered the event he has won, not entering last year when Neil Robertson took the title, so watch out for O'Sullivan in Coventry.

- Only three players that reached the quarter-finals of last years addition have qualified again for this year. (Defending champion Neil Robertson, runner-up Mark Allen and Joe Perry).

- Stuart Bingham reached the final the first year it was staged (losing to O'Sullivan) but has lost in the first round in both 2014 and 2015 since then.

- Defending champion Neil Robertson has won his 'group' every year in the Champion of Champions reaching at least the semi-finals on all three occasions.

- With a possibility that they could meet in the quarter-finals, Ali Carter lost to Neil Robertson in both of the first two years of Champion of Champions action.

- Three of the 16 players involved this week are Coventry debutants. English Open champion Liang Wenbo, Indian Open winner Anthony McGill and Robin Hull who's victory came in the one frame Snooker Shoot-Out will all be competing in the Champion of Champions for the first time.

- In terms of centuries 2013 produced 21 centuries in Coventry, with 20 following in 2014 before a drop down to just 14 centuries being made in last year's tournament.

- In similar style to Bingham, Mark Allen was runner-up last year having never won a match at the Champion of Champions prior to this (giving hope to players like Shaun Murphy).

- On Mark Davis' only Coventry appearance he lost out 4-0 to Ronnie O'Sullivan in the first who he could face if he were to win his first round match this time.

HEAD TO HEADS 

- Ronnie O'Sullivan has beaten Robin Hull on each occasion they have played the most recent being at the 2014 World Championship when he won 10-4.

- Martin Gould and Mark Davis have only met three times outside of the Championship League, with Gould winning the most recent one on the European Tour in 2014, while Davis beat Gould prior to that in the 2012 Australian Open.

- Neil Robertson and Stuart Bingham have not played for nearly three years since their classic UK Championship semi-final which was won 9-8 by Robertson.

- The same is true for Ding Junhui and Ali Carter who have not played since the 2013 European Tour event in Belgium.

- Mark Selby and Liang Wenbo will meet in round one for the second time in the last month after their Last 16 clash at the International Championship where Selby came from 5-4 behind to win 6-5.

- Mark Allen has beaten Joe Perry on the last two occasions that he they have played, at the 2015 Masters and on the 2015 European Tour.

- The last two times John Higgins has played Shaun Murphy (outside of Championship League meetings) Higgins has whitewashed Murphy, most recently 6-0 at the 2015 International Championship and then at the 2013 Bulgarian Open 4-0 with Higgins going on to win both of those tournaments.

- In 6 matches between Judd Trump and Anthony McGill, McGill has only beaten Trump once but that was their most recent meeting in the 2014 Riga Masters quarter-finals.

- If Trump beats McGill and Higgins beats Murphy then the pair will meet for the fourth time this season, after meetings at the English Open, European Masters and Riga Masters that were all won by Trump.

- Meanwhile, if Ronnie O'Sullivan and Martin Gould both win their first round games they will meet for the first time in over five years, having only met twice both of which were in UK PTC events in 2011, and both matches were won by O'Sullivan.

- If Mark Selby comes through his match with Liang Wenbo he will play either Mark Allen who he played in last week's China Championship quarter-final, losing out 6-5, or Joe Perry he played the week before in the International Championship quarter-final coming through a 6-3 winner.

PLAYER PERFORMANCE: KEY INDICATORS 

Average Frames per 50+ Break: 




Starting with the average frames per 50+ it is still Neil Robertson that leads the way despite going from 2.12 frames per 50 prior to the China Championship to 2.2 after his first round exit to Michael Holt. Ronnie O'Sullivan follows after skipping events in Guangzhou and taking a week off prior to the Champion of Champions. Mark Allen has also worsened from 2.22 last week to 2.35 which will mainly be due to the 9-3 thrashing he suffered in the semi-finals of the China Championship to John Higgins. First round exits have seen a little worsening of the stats for Ding Junhui and Judd Trump but they are still sitting well in the table. Shaun Murphy is this weeks big improver moving up a few spots in the table (though that will also be helped by the changes to the personnel from the China Championship to the Champion of Champions) and going from 2.77 frames per 50+ to 2.56 after his run to the semi-final.

Last weeks runner-up Stuart Bingham has made small improvements from 2.89 to 2.81 frames per 50+ while winner John Higgins fantastic efforts against Mark Allen and Bingham took him from 2.9 to 2.76. Ali Carter is still very low down the table. Mark Davis and Martin Gould who were both not involved in the China Championship and play each other in round one have similarly average 50+ break stats at 3.3 for Gould and 3.34 for Davis.  Meanwhile the lowest ranked this week is also the lowest in terms of frames per 50+ breaks as Robin Hull sits on 4.16.

Average Break when 50+: 




When it comes to the average contributions that each player makes when they make a break of 50+ the stats are somewhat turned on there heads. The form horses in Trump, Liang Wenbo and Bingham are the table toppers here. Trump has stayed in a similar position to last week, while Liang has made a slight drop but nothing too notable when his average is as high as it is. Stuart Bingham's large amount of centuries over his semi-final and finals at the China Championship have shot him from an average of 78.32 to 79.8. Despite being the lowest ranked player this week by some way, it is no surprise to see a high scorer like Robin Hull at four in the list with an average of 79.47 for every time he makes a 50+ break. Mark Allen's mountain of centuries early on in the China Championship make him the big mover of the last week going from 75.14 to 78.27 as his average contribution when 50 or above. Shaun Murphy has also made his move from 75.25 to 78.13 after his high scoring run to the semi-finals in Guangzhou.

Martin Gould's poor start to the season puts him at the very bottom of the average break weight table with an average of just 70.17. Ding Junhui, Neil Robertson and Ronnie O'Sullivan are all in the opposite end of the table that you would expect to see them in for the enormous century makers that all three of them are, while there is not a whole lot in the averages in the middle of the table.

Close Frames Win Percentage: 




Now we move on to the close frames win percentage (with close frames being determined as those with 20 points or less between the end of frame scores). It is no surprise to see Mark Selby still leading the way with a healthy 70% win rate despite taking a slight drop after last week. Liang Wenbo has also dropped around 2.5% on last week, but just as before the China Championship Neil Robertson, John Higgins and Ali Carter complete the top five. Mark Davis has an incredibly low percentage at 23.08% winning less than 1 in 4 close frames which does not bode well for his upcoming events.

Ironically, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Robin Hull who play each other in round one, have exactly the same close frame win percentage. Mark Allen has taken a big drop from 60% to 53.85% while fellow China Championship semi-finalist Shaun Murphy was not involved in one close frame all week long. For players that have been in good form this year Ding Junhui and Judd Trump still have very low close frame win percentages, which shows just how good their scoring has been to counteract that.

Average Frame Aggregate: 


After first round exits for all of last weeks top three in Judd Trump, Neil Robertson and Anthony McGill it is now Mark Selby who leads the way for average frame aggregate (average points scored per frame - average points conceded per frame). Mark Allen has dropped off by over 4 points on his average frame aggregate after a 9-3 semi-final loss at the China Championships. John Higgins has made a small gain after winning the title last week, while first round exits for Chinese duo Ding Junhui and Liang Wenbo have also seen them drop a little.

Robin Hull's narrow minus aggregate says more about his lower world ranking than anything else to be honest, while Martin Gould has not had the best of starts to the season and is second bottom on the list for that reason. Joe Perry was low on the list for average frame aggregate last week and has now dropped from 8.33 to 6.86 after a first round exit to Shaun Murphy and that is a reflection of all of his first round exits from this season.



That is my first statistical offering this week but still to come will be the tournament top ten blog where these statistics together with past finishes in tournaments will come together to help us see which players should perform best this week.

Following that will also be my full preview where every first round match will be analysed and the tournament prospects of each player discussed before I choose the player I think will win at the Ricoh Arena in Coventry.

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