For the first time this year the Shoot-Out will count towards the prize money ranking list. The field has been upped from 64 to 128 so that all of the tour are eligible. My only issue with these changes is that it may keep someone on tour who does not necessarily deserve to be based on their other performances, or more likely knock someone off of the tour who would be very unfortunate to receive such a fate come the end of the season. The other being that it could get someone into the top 16 for automatic qualification to the World Championships at the Crucible or knock someone out who again would be very unfortunate to have that happen.
There is another small point, over the last two years there have been plenty of tournaments for people to make their marks on the various lists whether that be making the top 64 or the top 16 and if they don't do so then the likelihood is they have not performed well enough on a consistent enough basis to achieve their individual goals.
Besides, with £32,000 on offer for the winner, £16,000 for the runner-up, £8,000 for the semi-finals and £4,000 for quarter-finalists, players would really have to get to the semi's or final to make any kind of significant ranking move.
Otherwise, the Shoot-Out is good fun if you let the stigma attached to it go and enjoy it as it is designed: - As a fun event and something different from any other tournament. It is also an opportunity for some players who have not had a great deal of Television exposure, to get their names out there and show what they can do.
The non-entries for this tournament are aplenty which is not surprising given the non-entries of previous years and this being a busy period on the calendar. Mark Selby, Judd Trump, Ding Junhui, John Higgins, Neil Robertson, Marco Fu, Ali Carter, Ronnie O'Sullivan, Stephen Maguire and Peter Ebdon are the notable absentees and each will have their own reasons for this.
The question now though is, who will be the man who takes the title on Sunday. Well, I am going to narrow down the list of contenders by looking at some of the trends from the previous tournaments.
1. No-one has ever won the Shoot-Out whilst being ranked inside the top 16
8 players are lost at this stage: Stuart Bingham, Shaun Murphy, Mark Allen, Joe Perry, Mark Williams, Liang Wenbo, Kyren Wilson and Barry Hawkins.
2. No Shoot-Out winner has ever won it before
That rules Michael White, Robin Hull, Dominic Dale, Martin Gould and Nigel Bond as well as Barry Hawkins.
3. Since the inaugural event in 2011, only 2016 winner Robin Hull had ever won on his debut:
That rules out a whole host of players, including the likes of Yan Bingtao, Zhao Xintong, Akani Songsermsawad but also players near the top 64 such as Ross Muir, Martin O'Donnell and Daniel Wells.
4. Aside from Michael White, each of the other Shoot-Out winners have been at least 31 years old when winning the Shoot-Out title.
Having already narrowed the field down by half we lose plenty more again here. These include Jack Lisowski, Anthony McGill, Oliver Lines, Luca Brecel, Sam Baird, Xiao Guodong, Jamie Jones and Jimmy Robertson. 35 potential contenders remain.
5. While only Nigel Bond and Dominic Dale out of the six previous Shoot-Out winners had won a ranking event, each winner had made at least the quarter-finals of a full ranking event within the two years prior to victory. No player had ever won a ranking event withing 7 years of their Shoot-Out win.
So for not reaching a ranking event quarter-final (or making one in the last 2 years at least) we lose: Ian Burns, Craig Steadman, Dechawat Poomjaeng, Jamie Cope, Matthew Stevens, Fergal O'Brien, Joe Swail, Aditya Mehta, Ken Doherty, Rod Lawler and Andrew Higginson amongst others.
Meanwhile for winning a ranking event within the last 7 years we lose: Anthony Hamilton, Ricky Walden and Mark King.
6. Each Shoot-Out winner has made at least 100 career centuries (according to CueTracker)
I think this trend just shows on the whole that shoot-out winners are generally heavy scorers. The players we lose here are: Mark Joyce, Thepchaiya Un-Nooh, David Grace, Mike Dunn, Rory McLeod, Matthew Selt and Gary Wilson
11 players remain:
- Alan McManus
- Kurt
Maflin
- Ryan Day
- Michael Holt
- Tom
Ford
- Graeme Dott
- Jimmy White
- Robert
Milkins
- Alfie Burden
- David Gilbert
- Mark Davis
Top 5 Contenders:
Out of the above 18 who fit the bill here are five who based on past performances could have a good shout:
- Kurt Maflin - Maflin reached the quarter-finals of the Shoot-Out in both 2013 and 2014 so he has a decent record by the standards of this tournament. His quick style and high scoring ability also make him a good fit and last week he made the quarter-finals of the Welsh Open.
- Robert Milkins - Milkins has proved before that he is a good match for this format. In the inaugural shoot out of 2011 he was the losing finalist against Nigel Bond. One of the quickest on tour but also the most fluent amongst the reds so the shot clock is never a problem. Last year he shined again making the quarter-finals and after making the semi's in Wales last week he is striking the ball well, which is another reason he could be a contender.
- Graeme Dott - Dott was the second ever finalist back in 2012 and as a losing semi finalist in 2014 he has backed up the thought that he could contend for the title. There is a great snooker myth (thanks to some long and slow high profile matches played at the Crucible) that Dott is a slow player. This couldn't be further from the truth though when he is amongst the reds which is really what the Shoot Out is all about. It has not been the best season for Dott but a major run here could give him the confidence needed to turn his fortunes around.
- Ryan Day - Day is another player with a decent record in this event. Last year he made the quarter-finals and in 2014 he reached the semi's. On two other occasions he has reached the Last 16 and is in good form of late. Reaching the final of the Grand Prix will help his confidence massively and this could be his week to get a title. Another heavy scorer and someone who has no trouble with the Shot Clock he is suited to the format.
- Tom Ford - Finally we come to Tom Ford. Ford is a very fast player and a heavy scorer with great rhythm amongst the reds. He had had a decent season this year making the quarter-finals recently in Berlin and the Paul Hunter Classic final back in August. A semi finalist in 2012, he is another player who could put everything together under this format and certainly fits the bill of a potential winner.
Best of the rest:
Andrew Higginson - For me Higginson is again someone that is well suited this format. In the six stagings of this event he has reached the quarter-finals on three occasions (2013, 2014 and 2016). While his form in recent years has not been as good it is worth remembering that he had won minor ranking events and just a few years ago he was on the verge of the top 16. Another fluent player who has no trouble with the shot clock and scores very heavily he is more than capable of walking off with the title.
Michael Holt - Holt has been a semi finalist in the Shoot Out before back in 2013 and was a quarter finalist two years ago. The format helps Holts rhythm because he is very fluent amongst the balls when he is on form. Much improved performances in the last couple of years could be the catalyst for him going all the way. Holt was also in the 11 that survived the 6 trends of former shoot out winners displayed above.
Mark Davis - Last but not least, Mark Davis is another of the 11 survivors of the 6 trends I picked out earlier. He has twice reached the quarter finals of this event in 2012 and 2014. He was in decent form last week in Cardiff and is a former top 16 player showing his quality.
Dark Horse:
Alfie Burden - Burden reached the quarter final of the Snooker Shoot-out in 2015 and has always looked pretty good in this event. A heavy scorer and fluent amongst the reds under the shot clock there is no reason why, at a big price, Burden cannot be the one who goes all the way this week.
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