Monday, 14 August 2017

China Championship Preview

This week the tour heads over to Guangzhou for the first Chinese ranking event of the season as the world's best compete for the China Championship title.

The tournament unusually starts on a Wednesday with the final following next Tuesday with the winner taking home a huge £150,000 top prize which will certainly guarantee that player a big rankings move as well as a place in the World Grand Prix and Players Championship events next Spring and a place in November's Champion of Champions.

With World champion Mark Selby, home favourite Ding Junhui and Ronnie O'Sullivan all in the field this week it is sure to be a week of great entertainment. The only question that remains is whether we will see a renowned winner, someone returning to the winners circle or, after Ryan Day's win in Riga, another first time champion.

Quarter 1

Last 64 Draw: (Picks in Bold) 

Mark Selby Or Luo HongHao Vs Noppon Saengkham
Zhou Yuelong Vs Chen Zifan 
Martin Gould Vs Andrew Higginson or Hu Hao 
Anthony McGill Vs Mark Joyce 
Stephen Maguire Vs Rory McLeod 
Stuart Bingham Vs Yan Bingtao 
Anthony Hamilton Vs Peter Ebdon
Shaun Murphy Vs Ken Doherty 

For me this opening quarter is one where there are opportunities for a couple of players to go well. It will be interesting of course to see how the leading player Mark Selby gets on this week having missed the Riga Masters and losing in round one in the Hong Kong invitational. You certainly would not be surprised if he came back and won straight away this week, especially after doing so well in China last season winning the China Open and International Championship and making the Shanghai final. Aside from this week's heavy favourite the quarter boasts Shaun Murphy who, by his own admission, was not at his best in last week's Preston qualifiers. This is Murphy's first full ranking tournament of the season having failed to make the venue in Riga.

For me though he faces the week's dark horse in round one and that is the resurgent Ken Doherty. Doherty has won all five of the qualifiers played so far this season and went on to reach the semi-finals of the Riga Masters. In last week's qualifiers he overcame Ali Carter and Barry Hawkins so he has certainly found his form and is capable of taking on the best players. Martin Gould and Anthony McGill could do well but in a packed mini section of the draw it is hard to pick either one out to go far with any certainty. Stuart Bingham is another dangerous player in this section but he has a very tough first round draw against someone in Yan Bingtao who could easily go on a run himself if he hits top gear. Anthony Hamilton has also been in good form over the course of the year and could well get on a run this week with his heavy scoring.

My pick for the quarter though is recent Riga Masters runner-up Stephen Maguire. Maguire has a round one draw here that he will fancy against Rory McLeod, who he overcame easily in the second round of this years World Championship. It was at that World Championship where he showed signs of a return to form and he picked that up again at the start of this season in Latvia. Maguire is long overdue for success having gone four and a half years without a full ranking title. He will be pushing hard to get back into the top 16 and has had success in China before, playing one of his best tournaments last season at the Shanghai Masters as well as having a brilliant China Open record. For me this could be a big week for Maguire with big money on offer on the ranking list. 

Best of the Rest: Ken Doherty
Quarter Choice: Stephen Maguire

Quarter 2

Last 64 Draw: (Picks in Bold) 

Barry Hawkins Vs Oliver Lines
Ben Woollaston Vs Mark Davis 
David Grace Vs Ian Preece
Ali Carter Vs Aditya Mehta
Kurt Maflin Vs Michael Georgiou
Mark King Vs Fergal O'Brien
Alan McManus Vs Elliot Slessor 
Ding Junhui or Niu Zhuang Vs Alfie Burden

This section again gives an opportunity to a few players. Barry Hawkins will be looking to go well after a solid end to last season although he probably has not had as much success in China as he has elsewhere in recent years which may not make him the best pick this week. Ali Carter meanwhile lost both of the qualifiers he played last week in Preston which does not bode too well for this event. Carter particularly seemed to struggle in what I saw of his qualifier against Mei Xiwen. Mark King could really be a dark horse in the draw this week for me. He won each of his three qualifiers in Preston at the beginning of the month and he seems to be confident with his game at the moment. His first round opponent Fergal O'Brien did not seem to go so well last week and will have to up his game if he is to beat King. Watch out also for Ian Preece. He is playing a lot better at the start of this season, completely dominating Oliver Lines and Sanderson Lam in the Indian Open and European Masters qualifiers and thrashing Ricky Walden to get through to Guangzhou. His first round opponent David Grace had differing fortunes in Preston though losing his three qualifiers. 

To me, Ding Junhui is the most likely player aside from Selby who can dominate the game in the next few years. The 30-year-old comes into this tournament fresh having only played in the World Cup with Liang Wenbo, where they ran out winners, since his incredible World Championship semi-final with Selby. In that tournament, Ding for me showed signs that he has come of age at last and is ready to add big titles by the bucket load. His incredible scoring (seeing him rack up 13 centuries in 51 frames won at the Crucible in May) is too much for the large majority of players to handle and is the reason I believe he stands out from the pack. On home soil, his performances were of the highest quality last season as he reached two finals, winning in Shanghai and losing in the International, in the four ranking events in China. His results in the UK and Europe did not always necessarily match that level last year, but he now seems more comfortable than ever playing in front of a home crowd and the results demonstrate it. In quite an open section of the draw I expect Ding again to be the top man. 

Best of the Rest: Mark King
Quarter Choice: Ding Junhui

Quarter 3

Last 64 Draw: (Picks in Bold) 

Judd Trump Vs Daniel Wells or Ma Chunmao
Graeme Dott Vs Robert Milkins
David Gilbert Vs Stuart Carrington
Ronnie O'Sullivan Vs Sam Baird
Liang Wenbo or Ian Burns Vs Allan Taylor
Joe Perry Vs Mike Dunn
Luca Brecel Vs Jimmy Robertson
Marco Fu Vs Hossein Vafei

Quarter three in this draw for me is the most exciting one. For starters we have Judd Trump who will be looking to get back to his Pre-World Championship form of last season. He has recently had laser eye surgery which can take some getting used to, especially in Chinese conditions as well and under the TV lights. He lost 5-0 to Sam Craigie and will more than likely face another talented youngster player in Daniel Wells as long as he wins his wildcard match, and Wells will certainly not make life easy for Trump. Robert Milkins and Graeme Dott is going to be a close battle in my view. Both players blew hot and cold in Preston, Dott's two games in particularly being struggles for the line while Milkins had some tough matches too. Ronnie O'Sullivan is obviously the big draw and I think he will do well this week even if the draw looking beyond round one is filled with class players. He does not always bring his best game out to China, particularly in recent years, but with a big cheque on offer and some exciting matches on the cards I think he will be well up for this event.

Liang Wenbo is not someone we have seen a whole lot of this year. The World Cup has been his only appearance since Sheffield and as someone who is very hit and miss it is going to be tough to judge how he will go this week, with very little form to go on. Luca Brecel and Jimmy Robertson is going to be a very exciting match. Both are attacking players who on their day score very heavily and Robertson himself was in very heavy scoring form in Preston at the start of the month and looked quite impressive. That is a match that could go right to the wire and the winner could go far in this quarter if they are on their game. Finally, Marco Fu and Hossein Vafei looks like another blockbuster. Hossein continues to impress and has won all of his August qualifiers and is just growing stronger and more confident, ever since his run to the China Open semi-finals. Fu has not played much this season and will not want to give Hossein any encouragement early on or else he could be in for a struggle. Fu was much more consistent last season and scored pretty heavily but having been an inconsistent player over the years, the question is certainly whether he can keep that going.

Joe Perry is my pick though for this third quarter. Perry's season tailed off in 2016/2017 after making the World Open final and despite making the Masters final, he could not hold on to that form and stay in the top 16 for the World Championships. He will now be determined to fight back into the top 16 and he started the season with a boost by making the Riga quarter-finals before losing to eventual winner Ryan Day. He has won each of his qualifiers this season so far and showed good fight against Boonyarit in the European Masters qualifier in particular. His draw is not too bad with a couple of players in his mini section who, while being very dangerous at their best, can also dip well below their usual standards if things do not quite happen for them. Perry is probably the most solid by comparison to Liang, Fu or Brecel who can be very streaky. A couple of confidence boosting wins could soon see Perry back to the form that has taken him to two Chinese ranking finals, two Asian tour titles and a lone full ranking win that came in Thailand, showing his pedigree in what can be very difficult Asian playing conditions at times. 

Best of the Rest: Hossein Vafei
Quarter Choice: Joe Perry

Quarter 4

Last 64 Draw: (Picks in Bold) 

Neil Robertson Vs Li Hang
Michael White Vs Xiao Guodong
Mark Allen Vs Matthew Stevens 
Michael Holt Vs Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Ryan Day Vs Cao Yupeng
Mark Williams Vs Tian Pengfei or Fan Zhengyi 
Tom Ford Vs Matthew Selt
John Higgins or Lu Haotian Vs Chris Wakelin 

Another talent-packed section of the draw sees us home here with top players contesting every match. I want to start with Hong Kong Masters winner Neil Robertson. Robertson had not had his best few months on the table coming into that tournament so would have perhaps had reason to not be full of confidence coming up against the other top players. To win in the fashion he did will have been very pleasing and often when Robertson has a good run he keeps it going and has another big run to follow it up with a semi-final, final or another title soon after. In fact there are examples of that in each of the last four or so seasons, so you have to fancy that if he can keep it going he'll be right there again this week. Michael Holt against Thepchaiya Un-Nooh is a great prospect and if I was at the venue for this event, it would be top of my watch list. Holt has improved heavily in the last two years on the big stage and looks a lot calmer under pressure, and with the heavy scoring that Un-Nooh can produce he may be under plenty of it. Riga Masters champion Ryan Day will be looking to keep his form going in what has been a pretty good few months for the Welshman. However, his tie with Cao Yupeng is a very tough assignment. Cao had struggled for a year or two prior to this season but has started in style winning each of his five qualifiers played at Preston so far beating players ranked well inside the top 64 on each occasion. If Day is even slightly off his game he could be punished heavily by the Chinese player.

The talent keeps coming though with former world champions Mark Williams and John Higgins all in the bottom mini section with Day and Cao. Both could be big contenders and of course Higgins will have very fond memories of his win here last year in the invitational event. Williams meanwhile started the season nicely by making the Riga semi-finals for the second year running and losing 5-4 in the semi's for the second year running too. That backs up his run to the China Open final in April so he is certainly a danger man in the draw, even if he still likes to suggest on Twitter every now and again that he is not.

My final quarter choice though is Mark Allen. Allen is in need of an improved season to hold on to his place in the top 16. Last year he finished as low as 22nd on the one-season money list in a season that did not produce enough deep runs in tournaments. This year though he has showed positive signs by bouncing back from defeat in the Riga Masters qualifier to win each of his next four, despite insisting on Twitter that he was not at his best. This ability to grind out matches though is a much more positive sign having been something he probably did not do enough of last season. He still scored well enough in those qualifiers despite his discomfort with the performances, though we all know that on his day there are not many that score heavier. The World Championship last 16 tie with John Higgins provides enough evidence of that. If he is even close to his A game he has enough scoring power to blow away 90% of the tour and should he be happy to grind out frames and matches more along with that I can see a much improved season coming for Allen. 


Best of the Rest: Cao Yupeng
Quarter Winner: Mark Allen

Winner Selection: Ding Junhui 


The format for this week sees the players play over the best-of-9 frames until best-of-11 frame semi-finals and a best-of-19 frame final over two sessions next Tuesday. The event will be live on Eurosport in the UK as well as on the Eurosport Player. 

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