Who wants to be a Shoot Out winner? No it doesn't exactly have the same ring to it as the popular quiz show that used to be hosted by Chris Tarrant, but it is certainly still a title worth winning.
Last year, I listed a few of the trends of past winners in the Snooker Shoot Out and this year I will be doing this again and updating it with a few other trends.
The trends I used last year narrowed the field down from 128 to 11 although it was Anthony McGill that would ultimately come through, though he only broke one of the general rules of past winners by being less than 31 in the year that he won the title. Only Michael White of the previous shoot out winners was less than 31 prior to McGill's triumph.
So, before coming up with any new trends, let's look at the ones that are still running from last year and theoretically eliminate some of the contenders.
1. No-one has ever won the Shoot-Out whilst being ranked inside the top 16
Anthony McGill was just outside of the top 16 when he won last year, so this fact remains. Inside the top 16 in the up to date world rankings and entered for this tournament are: Shaun Murphy, Barry Hawkins, Mark Allen, Mark Williams, Ali Carter, Kyren Wilson, Stuart Bingham, Luca Brecel and last year's winner McGill.
2. No Shoot Out winner has ever won it before.
This additionally takes out the likes of Dominic Dale, Robin Hull, Nigel Bond, Martin Gould and Michael White.
3. In a new trend I've spotted prior to this year, the furthest a Shoot Out winner has ever gone in the competition prior to the year they won is the Quarter-Finals.
Both 2014 winner Dominic Dale and 2013 winner Martin Gould made the quarter-finals in 2012 but no Shoot Out winner has ever been further than that point in any year prior to victory.
So, I have removed from the list all former runners-up and anyone that's ever been in a Shoot-Out semi-final. The players that has taken out are: Xiao Guodong, Robert Milkins, Graeme Dott, Tom Ford, Michael Holt, Ryan Day, Jamie Jones and Joe Swail.
4. Since the inaugural event in 2011, only Robin Hull in 2016 won on his tournament debut however.
So while too much prior success in the event does not bode well, neither does being a total newbie to the difference in format and of course the shot clock. Debutants this year : Alex Davies, Billy Castle, Yuan Sijun, Xu Si, Chen Zifan, David Lilley, Lu Haotian, Chris Totten, Li Yuan, Niu Zhuang, Alexander Ursenbacher and Lukas Kleckers
5. Each previous Shoot Out winner has made 100 career centuries (According to CueTracker)
Shoot Out winners then generally appear to be people either to have the experience of playing long enough to make 100 centuries, or that they are heavy scorers. On this occasion we lose the likes of: Rod Lawler (who is stuck on 99), Matthew Selt (98), Tian Pengfei, Mark Joyce, Gerard Greene, Gary Wilson, Rory McLeod, Sam Baird, Li Hang, Daniel Wells, Zhang Anda, Liam Highfield, Stuart Carrington, Mike Dunn, Zhou Yuelong, Zhao Xintong, Yan Bingtao and many more
6. While only Nigel Bond and Dominic Dale out of the six previous Shoot-Out winners had won a ranking event, each of the last five winners made at least the quarter-finals of a full ranking event within the two years prior to victory. 2012 winner Hawkins had made semi-finals in PTC events.
This is an interesting one, and many surprise a few with some of the previous winners there have been in the Shoot Out. However, they all certainly know how to get towards the latter stages of events. This actually eliminates less of the remaining players than I though it might, but still saw Matthew Stevens and Jamie Cope among those leaving contention. 17 players remain.
7. Despite no player ever being in the top 16 at the precise time of their win, only Robin Hull was lower than 39 at the start of the season in which he won the Shoot Out, and lower than 40 at the end of that season.
Based on this trend, I have removed all players that started the 2017/2018 ranked lower than 39. This takes out Fergal O'Brien, Ken Doherty, Alfie Burden, Jimmy White, Andrew Higginson and Kurt Maflin.
Jack Lisowski started the season outside the top 40 but it already back inside the top 40 and is set to stay there until the end of the season so he remains on the list.
Peter Ebdon started the season inside the top 40 but has since well below this mark and is set to fall lower by the seasons end so has been removed from the list.
The top 10 Shoot Out contenders, based on these trends:
- Mark King
- Joe Perry
- Ricky Walden
- David Gilbert
- Anthony Hamilton
- Alan McManus
- Ben Woollaston
- Jimmy Robertson
- Jack Lisowski
- Mark Davis
There's a nice mix in there of a few ranking winners like Hamilton, Walden, Perry, King who have a lot of experience and guys like Jimmy Robertson and Jack Lisowski who have had impressive seasons. Ben Woollaston and David Gilbert both have the potential, and Gilbert was of course left feeling very hard done by last year when he lost on the Sunday evening to Xiao Guodong.
Overall, it is very tough to pick one player and I think there are other players who may not have come through the full list of trends, but are players I had picked out long before putting this piece together. Mark Joyce is one who has had a great season, scores heavily and has the potential to win tournaments in the future based on what we have seen from him frequently this season. Meanwhile, Liam Highfield is someone else I have my eye on for this weekend. Another impressive scorer who doesn't necessarily hang around among the balls either, he has had some good results this year making the quarter-finals in India and beating a few top players in different events.
Hopefully that has provided a little insight into those who are hoping to find who the winner of this unpredictable tournament will be, but I'm sure there will be a lot of twists and turns before somebody is lifting the trophy on Sunday night.
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