Saturday 31 March 2018

China Open Preview

On Easter Monday, snooker will begin treading uncharted territory with the biggest Chinese event in the sports history. The winner next Sunday will take home £225,000, the second biggest prize of the 2017/2018 season, £75,000 more than any other Chinese event this season, £55,000 more than the UK Championship first prize and £25,000 more than Mark Allen picked up in January for becoming the Masters champion.

All matches up to and including the quarter-finals are played over the best-of-11 frames, an extension on the previous format of this event. Meanwhile, the semi-finals will be played over the best-of-19 frames, and the final over the best-of-21 frames. Not only is this the perfect warm up for the World Championships but also an incredibly important event in its own right.

After this event, the top 16 in the world rankings will be guaranteed their place at the Crucible for the World Championships, while the remainder of the tour will be heading to the English Institute of Sport in Sheffield to battle for the remaining 16 spots.

For Ryan Day, his failure to qualify for Beijing could prove costly. He is currently in position at 16th in the provisional Crucible rankings, but if Mark Allen is able to defeat Noppon Saengkham in the last 64 it will send Day to the EIS.

Theoretically, players as low as 60 in the provisional Crucible rankings could make it into the top 16 by winning the title, if other results go their way in the process. However, only Mark King and Liang Wenbo can get into the top 16 by reaching the final, while a place in the semi-finals for Stephen Maguire would most probably be enough to get him to the Crucible automatically.

Quarter 1

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold)

Mark Selby or Wang Yuchen Vs Scott Donaldson
Ben Woollaston Vs Lee Walker
Liam Highfield Vs Lu Haotian 
Stephen Maguire Vs Fergal O'Brien
Michael Holt Vs Mark Davis
Mark Williams Vs Thepchiaya Un-Nooh
Yan Bingtao Vs Kurt Maflin
Mark Allen Vs Noppon Saengkham

Defending China Open champion Mark Selby has one more tournament to find some form ahead of his return to the Crucible. His season has not had many highlights since winning the International Championship in Daqing at the beginning of November. If he overcomes Wang Yuchen in his heldover last 128 tie then Selby would face Scott Donaldson in the last 64, who was responsible for his last 64 exit at the UK Championship. Last week at the Players Championship he fell in round one after a round one exit in the Romanian Masters and a last 64 loss at the Welsh Open. Staggeringly, the world number one is actually as low as eighth on the money list for this season so he will be hoping to have a good run this week, and build his confidence back up ahead of his World Championship title defence.

The current numbers 17 and 18 on the provisional Crucible seeding list are both in this section of the draw. Mark Allen has a must win game against Noppon Saengkham as he looks to leapfrog Ryan Day in the seedings list. This brings with it huge pressure on Allen, while Saengkham will have plenty of confidence after a career best run to the semi-finals of the Welsh Open a month ago that saw him defeat Judd Trump and Kyren Wilson along the way. Allen has struggled since winning the Masters, and spoke on Twitter of his struggle for form after a first round exit in the Players Championship. This followed a first round loss in Romania and last 32 exits at the Welsh Open and World Grand Prix.

Stephen Maguire meanwhile needs to find a way to win this quarter or face a second successive year of World Championship qualifying. The 2008 China Open champion does have plenty of form in this event, making the semi-finals in 2016 to secure his automatic Crucible seeding. The Scotsman was also a semi-finalist in 2013 and runner-up in 2012 to Peter Ebdon. Last year he fell at the quarter-final stage to eventual winner Mark Selby, and the pair could face off this week in the last 16. 

However, my quarter choice this week is last year's China Open runner-up Mark Williams. His run last year got him into contention for an automatic Crucible qualification spot, but defeat to Selby in the final denied him. So, 12 months on from that and the further disappointment of failing to come through the World Championship qualifiers, it is remarkable to see him back in the world's top eight and someone who looks a big factor in every tournament he plays. As well as winning the Northern Ireland Open and the German Masters, Williams has been in a number of semi and quarter-finals including the recent Players Championship. As well as that, he has been a quarter-finalist in three of the four Chinese events so far this season so it would not be a surprise to see him in the latter stages contending for a title he has won in 2002, 2006 and 2010. 

Best of the rest: Stephen Maguire
Quarter choice: Mark Williams 

Quarter 2

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

John Higgins Vs Martin O'Donnell
Anthony Hamilton Vs Jack Lisowski
Ali Carter Vs Gary Wilson
Joe Perry Vs Chris Totten
Mark King Vs Peter Ebdon or Zhang Yong or Chang Bingyu
Kyren Wilson Vs Andrew Higginson or Chen Feilong or Fan Zhengyi 
Xiao Guodong Vs Jimmy Robertson 
Ding Junhui or Michael Georgiou Vs Craig Steadman 

Fresh from his Championship League victory this week, John Higgins will be looking to press and have a run at taking home a much bigger title this week in Beijing. The Scottish number 1 looks to be hitting top form again at the right time, after also taking the trophy at the Welsh Open a month ago. He will have been disappointed to lose 6-0 in round one of the Players Championship, but as he showed in the Championship League that was a very temporary blip. Not only does Higgins have a fantastic chance this week, in my view he is very much one of the top contenders for the Crucible as well.

In many ways it is nice that, by complete chance, Peter Ebdon has had his last 128 match heldover. The China Open is the scene of his last two ranking titles in 2009 and 2012, so it will always be a special tournament for him. In 2014 he made the last 16 after defeating Judd Trump in Beijing and he is more than capable of pulling off an upset or two this week. Equally, Jack Lisowski could pull off a couple of upsets in Beijing this week. This tournament was where Lisowski made his first ever quarter-final back in 2013 and after finally bettering this by make the semi-finals in Shanghai earlier this season, he must relishing another trip to China.

Kyren Wilson is certainly one to watch this week. He has had some good times in China this season, making the final of the World Open in September as well as making a 147 in the International Championships. He was also a semi-finalist at this tournament 12 months ago, and of course his only ranking title to date came at the Shanghai Masters in 2015. After making three finals in all this season, there is absolutely no reason why he cannot get on another run and perhaps add to that tally at the end of the week. 

Meanwhile, Xiao Guodong and Jimmy Robertson for me is one of the picks of the last 64 in Beijing. Xiao has been in brilliant form this season, making quarter-finals at the Scottish Open, German Masters and the World Grand Prix. The 29-year-old has flown back into the top 32 while Jimmy Robertson is on the fringes after a good season himself. This included a German Masters quarter-final of his own, and some very consistent play pre-Christmas that saw him make the last 32 on a number of occasions. After a poor recent run of first round exits in Gibraltar and the Welsh Open, Robertson hit back to win five of his six round-robin games in group seven of the Championship League. This included a 3-0 win over Ricky Walden and 3-2 wins over Luca Brecel and John Higgins, though ultimately Higgins would gain revenge by defeating him in the group semi-final.

My second quarter pick though is a man looking for a hat-trick of China Open titles in Ding Junhui. The Chinese number 1 turns 31 the day before this tournament gets underway and he has plenty of form in this event. It was the scene of his 2005 breakthrough while his second Beijing title came in 2014. Along with that he was runner-up to Mark Williams in 2010 and has reached semi-finals at this event in 2006, 2011, 2012 and 2015. Recently, he made the final of the World Grand Prix losing out to O'Sullivan, who would overcome him again in the Players Championship quarter-finals. Ding has already won in China this season collecting the World Open title in September before suffering with an eye problem prior to Christmas. Of his 13 ranking titles, six have come in China and seven in Asia overall, so he is always one of the leading contenders in this part of the world and he surely will be again this week. There are certainly a few obstacles in a difficult quarter of the draw, but if Ding is on top form he should have enough to get past those and be around at the weekend in Beijing. 

Best of the rest: Jack Lisowski
Quarter choice: Ding Junhui

Quarter 3

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold)

Jak Jones Vs Nigel Bond
Zhou Yuelong Vs Chen Zhe
Neil Robertson Vs Robbie Williams
Martin Gould Vs Sam Craigie
Ricky Walden Vs Hamza Akbar
Stuart Bingham Vs Matthew Stevens
Graeme Dott Vs Mark Joyce
Shaun Murphy Vs Chris Wakelin 

Zhou Yuelong has not had his best season in the ranking events, but has had a little success in the Championship League. After winning group 1 of the competition in early January he came back for the Winner's group this week and reached the final before narrowly missing out on the title 3-2 to John Higgins. That should give him some confidence though coming into this week and with the draw in his section slightly more open, he in my view is the clear front runner for a place in the last 16 at the very least.

2016 runner-up Ricky Walden will be looking for another big week in China as he looks to build some form up leading into the World Championship qualifiers. He could of course still qualify automatically by winning a fourth ranking title, and with the other three all coming in China, this event is one of the few Chinese tournaments he has not yet been able to capture. Graeme Dott is in a similar boat of someone looking for a good week to take into the World qualifiers. Dott captured this title 11 years ago and has reached quarter-finals since then in 2009 and 2014 so he is certainly dangerous and one to watch out for this week.

Stuart Bingham meanwhile is not completely assured of his place in the World Championship as a seed. He is currently 15th on the provisional Crucible list but could fall to 16th if he loses in round one and Mark Allen gets through to the last 32, thus opening the door if someone just outside of the 16 were to have a big week. In terms of Bingham's own form he will have been pleased to make the final in Romania recently, even if he did end up losing from 4-0 in front. He also made the quarters in Gibraltar the week before though his last 64 opponent in Beijing is the same man that sent him home at the last 32 stage of the recent Welsh Open.

Finally, it is always worth mentioning Neil Robertson but particularly this week. Looking at the draw, he has to be the hot favourite to come through and make it to at least the quarter-finals with Martin Gould being the highest ranked player he would have to defeat in order to do so. His form has been very hit and miss with good wins being followed by surprising losses. After his impeccable display against Luca Brecel at the Players Championship, his display in the following round against Trump was nowhere near the same standard as he fell to a crushing defeat against Judd Trump. He will have good memories of this event, having captured the title in 2013 and nearly defending it in 2014 despite suffering from a virus throughout the event. In recent years he has not been able to keep this going losing at the last 64 stage in 2015 and 2016 before not even entering last year. 

That leaves my selection in this quarter as five time finalist in the 2017/2018 season Shaun Murphy. Murphy has been unfortunate in many ways that he has not won more this season. The Champion of Champions victor has met O'Sullivan in three of his five finals this season, winning one of those. A reoccurring neck and back injury did not hamper his performance as much as many thought it would when he made the Players Championship final, despite being in significant pain. As well as appearing in a quintet of finals, Murphy has been consistent with a semi-final in Berlin and a quarter-final at the Grand Prix earlier in 2018. Despite never winning this title, Murphy has made at least the quarter-finals in seven of his 12 Beijing appearances, with semi-finals in 2011 and 2013 as well as narrowly missing out to Stephen Maguire in the 2008 final. Making the final of the China Championship earlier this season shows that he certainly has form in China and after the Players Championship he should also be full of confidence. All of that makes Murphy a big contender for this title. 

Best of the rest: Zhou Yuelong
Quarter choice: Shaun Murphy

Quarter 4

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Barry Hawkins Vs Sam Baird
Michael White Vs Paul Davison
Luca Brecel Vs Cao Yupeng
David Gilbert Vs Mike Dunn
Liang Wenbo or Rhys Clark Vs Duane Jones
Anthony McGill Vs Stuart Carrington or Basem Eltahhan or Luo Honghao
Tom Ford Vs Yuan Sijun
Ronnie O'Sullivan or Ross Muir Vs Elliot Slessor 

Barry Hawkins will be looking to build from his recent good performance. The Welsh Open finalist had a poor first half to the season, but was excellent in Cardiff and will now be looking to build his form ahead of another big run at the Crucible. Sam Baird is Hawkins opponent in round one and needs a victory to boost his tour survival hopes after a very poor season has left him provisionally outside of the top 64 and outside of the top 8 on the one-season list not already qualified for next season. Hawkins record in the China Open is not the best however, so this may provide half an opportunity if Baird can find some form.

Luca Brecel is really struggling for form in this second half of the season. First round exits in the Players Championship, Gibraltar Open and the World Grand Prix were also accompanied by a last 64 loss in the Welsh Open. There was a highlight in the Championship League last week as he made a 147 in a 3-0 win over John Higgins, though this was the only game he managed to win as he finished bottom of the group. His best form this season by a mile has come over in China which gives him hopes for improvement. As well as winning the China Championship in August, Brecel was a semi-finalist at the World Open and made the quarter-finals of the Shanghai Masters. Perhaps another Chinese trip will help him find his game again ahead of the Crucible.

In round one though he faces a very difficult tie against Cao Yupeng. Cao is having the season of his life having made the Scottish Open final, narrowly missing out on victory there, and then making the Gibraltar Open final a few weeks ago. When the pair met earlier on this season Cao only lost out 5-4 in the World Open last 16, and his performances over the season have been very impressive as he qualified for the World Grand Prix and only just missed out on the Players Championship.

Liang Wenbo needs to make the final this week in order to make the Crucible automatically or face going to the qualifiers. As the Chinese number 2 his last 128 match has been heldover to the venue. There are two clear obstacles in the draw for Liang with a potential last 32 against McGill and a potential last 16 against O'Sullivan so it is hard to give him much of a chance of making the Crucible as a seed. His form has simply not been up to scratch as he failed to qualify for the World Grand Prix and the Players Championship. In ranking events, Liang has failed to make a quarter-final all season and it is difficult to see that changing this week.

Anthony McGill should come to Beijing with a lot more confidence after whitewashing John Higgins 6-0 in the first round of the recent Players Championship, ending his Higgins hoodoo this season. He only narrowly missed out on the semi-finals in Llandudno losing out 6-5 to Shaun Murphy. This also comes after a last 16 appearance in Gibraltar, a run that you feel ended prematurely, and a quarter-final at the World Grand Prix. This is much like the consistency he displayed at the beginning of the season where he made the Indian Open final, English Open semi's and three quarter-finals in addition. He may be the strongest opposition in this section to the world number two. 

Once again though my quarter choice is the player of the season Ronnie O'Sullivan. His form this season is making it very difficult to pick anyone else in fact. His win at the Players Championship was a fifth ranking title of the season, joining his wins at the World Grand Prix, UK Championships, Shanghai Masters and the English Open. That Shanghai victory is the reason I think he could go all the way here in Beijing. Prior to that there were some question marks about him in Chinese events but he answered that by romping to victory. In the China Championships a sublime comeback from eventual winner Brecel halted him at the quarter-final stages. It really is difficult to pick out one man who could stop him this week, because when he has been beaten it has usually taken an excellent performance from his opponent, so it is all about whether anyone can step up to the plate and make that happen. If not, then ranking title number six of this unbelievable season could be on its way. 

Best of the rest: Cao Yupeng
Quarter choice: Ronnie O'Sullivan 

Tournament Winner Selection: Ding Junhui


The event will be covered in full this week on Eurosport while in the UK the 12.30pm sessions will also be simulcast live on Quest. With Crucible spots and huge money on the line and all of the world's best players in the running, the penultimate event of the snooker season should provide plenty of drama and excitement. 

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