Tuesday 24 July 2018

Riga Masters Preview

The Riga Masters gets underway on Friday in Latvia, marking the first full tournament of the 2018/2019 season, nearly three months after Mark Williams picked up his third world title.

The defending champion this week is another Welshman, Ryan Day, after he overcame Stephen Maguire in last year's final to claim his first ever full ranking title, something he would add to earlier this year in Gibraltar.

There are many big names in the field all playing to get their name alongside Day's on the Riga roll of honour, and a large group of contenders have made it through the last 128 round that was played earlier in July.

Those contenders include another former winner in Neil Robertson, along with the 7th, 8th and 9th ranked players in the world with Barry Hawkins, Shaun Murphy and Kyren Wilson. Further top 16 players in the field include Mark Allen, Luca Brecel and Anthony McGill who will all be looking to add to their tally of ranking titles.

However, another big topic at the start of any new snooker season is who the breakthrough players could be and it is well worth bringing back up after Day's triumph 12 months previously. Fellow Welshman Jamie Jones ended last season on a high with an appearance in the last 16 of the World Championships and the twice ranking semi-finalist is one of the top names on my list to make a big move up the rankings this year. Michael Holt is another hoping to take that step up and go one better than his performance in this tournament two years ago.

Jack Lisowski is another at the front of the 'best players without a ranking title' discussion, having teased the snooker world last year with a number of impressive results. The proof is in the pudding though, and it may well be that world champion Williams keeps his exceptional form going to keep the Riga Masters trophy in Wales for another year.

Quarter 1 

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold)

Jamie Jones Vs Rod Lawler 
Chris Wakelin Vs Sam Craigie 
Robbie Williams Vs Lukas Kleckers
Mark King Vs Xu Si 
Joe Swail Vs Mei Xiwen
Fergal O'Brien Vs Stuart Carrington 
Shaun Murphy Vs David Lilley 
Nigel Bond Vs Zhao Xintong

Shaun Murphy is the only top 16 player in this top section of the draw, so is the obvious favourite to come through the draw. His first round opponent David Lilley will not give him an easy ride though having already won two qualifying matches in Preston against full time pros. Murphy knows all about the dangers Lilley poses after ending Lilley's run in the 2016 Indian Open where he made the quarter-finals. From the two qualifiers the world number 8 played earlier in July, he lost out to Mei Xiwen and was just able to beat Sanderson Lam who could easily have won that one. Murphy also lost in the first round at the venue in his last two tournaments of last season so his opponents may see a bit of vulnerability this week, especially over this short format. Having said that, the Magician has gone well on numerous occasions in these short weekend events, having won the Gibraltar Open and finishing runner-up in last season's Paul Hunter Classic since the European Tour was disbanded. If he brings his best to Latvia then he could rip through the draw and be a big title contender. 

Zhao Xintong is someone who many snooker pundits have spoken about as one of the young Chinese players who has so much potential. Having dropped off tour last season, he showed the determination and character needed to fight his way back and has started the season with qualifying victories against Jimmy Robertson and Graeme Dott. When on form his scoring can blow away any opposition, but questions still have to be asked about his ability to grind out results, though there are certainly signs of improvement there too. When you look at the other names in this section, Murphy's is probably the only one that he might fear, so there's reason to believe he could have a good weekend as well. 

My opening quarter pick of the new season is Jamie Jones. After his performances in the World Championships to whitewash Liang Wenbo in qualifying and then come back to beat Murphy, he is a player that should now be looking to kick on and fulfil his potential. Last year he made the semi-finals of the Paul Hunter Classic before falling to Murphy, though he has had plenty of victories over him in the past to believe he could beat him again if they faced off in the last eight this week. If you go back a little further, Jones has had a semi-final in the Australian Open where he fell away after surging ahead early on against John Higgins. Those previous runs should give him the belief that he can keep putting himself in position to win ranking events. He should take inspiration from the play of fellow Welsh players Ryan Day and Mark Williams last season, while his close friend Michael White bagged another ranking title last season, which is the sort of success you can feed off of. Given my thoughts on his break through being close, and then seeing the draw in this quarter, there is enough to make me think Jones could have a special weekend in Riga.  

Best of the rest: Zhao Xintong

Quarter choice: Jamie Jones

Quarter 2 

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Scott Donaldson Vs Robin Hull
Zhou Yuelong Vs Craig Steadman
Liang Wenbo Vs Kurt Maflin
Neil Robertson Vs Li Yuan 
Barry Hawkins Vs Li Hang 
Ricky Walden Vs Jimmy White or Rodion Judin
Mark Allen Vs Peter Lines
Ali Carter Vs Ryan Day or Jamie Cope

While the top quarter may not have had a cluster of top names, the second quarter is the complete opposite courtesy of the unseeded nature of the draw. Liang Wenbo and Kurt Maflin is a fascinating match up given how well Maflin played in qualifying for this event where he beat Lu Haotian. It's a very tough match to call given that both players seem to lack real consistency, but Liang had a very average season last time out and that should give Maflin cause to think that he can win this one. 

Then at the opposing end of this quarter we find the defending champion Ryan Day who has a holdover match against Jamie Cope, where a win would see him face a top 16 player in Ali Carter. Carter had a poor season last year on the whole, with the main highlight proving to be his victory against Ronnie O'Sullivan in the World Championships. A string of early exits in the middle of the season saw him fail to qualify for the Players Championship, while Day was having his best ever season, picking up a trio of titles, starting here in Latvia. He certainly will not want to give this title up easily, and having to play a holdover match could be a nice warm-up for playing Carter, should he beat Cope as expected. 

Ricky Walden is someone who will be looking to build on a positive end to last season and force his way back into the top 16. This time last year, Walden had just been whitewashed in his opening two qualifying matches and was struggling badly with a back injury, but a run to the last 16 of the World Championships should give him confidence. That was joined by plenty more uplifting runs and there will be very little attention on him in the early rounds given some of the other top names in this section, that people will be keeping a close eye on. 

Barry Hawkins would be Walden's likely last 32 opponent early on Saturday should both come through early tests, and it will be interesting to see how the left-hander gets on. Hawkins is not always the quickest out of the blocks at the start of a new season, and usually seems to peak between February and April in recent years, usually culminating in an appearance in the World Championship semi-finals. He qualified easily for the opening two tournaments of the season and will now be looking to buck that early season trend with a run through a tough section of the draw to the latter stages, having won this title back in 2015 on the European Tour. 

Mark Allen is another quality left-hander who has started the season with two qualifying wins and will be looking to move up the rankings after only just qualifying for the World Championships last season in 16th place. Allen is a former runner-up in Riga having lost out in the 2014 final when this event was part of the European Tour. Like everyone else in that mini section though, Allen is going to have to be on his game from a very early stage in this event. 

Neil Robertson is my second quarter choice though as someone that is at the opposite end of this quarter to the likes of Allen, Hawkins, Day, Carter and Walden. Instead the Australian has a much easier looking draw, if he comes to Riga with something close to his best. He may have lost early here last year to Lukas Kleckers, but the year before that he was the champion with a win in the final against Michael Holt. Robertson is a player that I expect to see winning more this season after a difficult couple of years since he took home this title. Having changed cues he should have been putting a lot of work in, and sometimes these changes in equipment have more influence on a player's mindset than anything else. No one can doubt his capabilities as a top player based on his past achievements, and avoiding many of the top names in this section could be the kind of break that he needs to help ease him into this tournament. As someone who has won this title before, he is a certain contender this week. 

Best of the rest: Ricky Walden

Quarter choice: Neil Robertson 

Quarter 3

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

David Gilbert Vs Michael White 
Joe Perry Vs Robert Milkins 
Stephen Maguire Vs Gerard Greene 
Lee Walker Vs Joe O'Connor
Kyren Wilson Vs Luke Simmonds
Niu Zhuang Vs Simon Bedford
Anthony Hamilton W/O Yan Bingtao 
Michael Holt Vs Liam Highfield 

The third section of the draw has both runners-up from the last two years of competition here, as well as a number of other quality players. David Gilbert and Michael White are two of those players, with both sitting in the top 32, though the draw has not been kind to see the pair face off in round one, in what is a very tough game to call. 

Joe Perry is a former top 16 player who will be looking to build on his victory against Mark Selby in last season's World Championship, to help force his way back to where he was after winning his maiden ranking title in 2015. He is yet another player with a difficult draw to negotiate, facing Robert Milkins in round one with the winner to face the victor between White and Gilbert. Trying to pick a winner out of those four is not easy work at such an early point in the season with little form to go on. 

Michael Holt is one of the two former finalists in this quarter of the draw, after he lost out 5-2 to Neil Robertson in 2016. Holt looked impressive in defeating Matthew Stevens to qualify for this event, and the tricky matches keep on coming with the ever-improving Liam Highfield his first opposition in Latvia. Last season was a difficult one for Holt, but go back a further year to the season where Holt was runner-up here and he went on to have one of the best season's of his career, showing what a big run could do this week for any player in the field but also what Holt is still very much capable of. An all-Notts showdown would follow in the last 32 if Holt beats Highfield, courtesy of Anthony Hamilton's walkover following the early withdrawal of Yan Bingtao. 

Stephen Maguire is last year's losing finalist in what would have been his first ranking title since the 2013 Welsh Open. The wait for Maguire has now been five and a half years, which is a very long time between drinks, and he sounded downbeat on his chances of a top 16 revival after losing to Ronnie O'Sullivan in April's World Championship opening round. It all comes down to how much he wants it, and therefore whether he is ready to put the hard work in to fight his way back to the top. His results last season were some of his best for a while and all the was lacking was that elusive title, showing that the ability has gone nowhere. Looking at the draw I would expect him to make the last 16 as a minimum but if he wants it, he could be a title challenger this week. 

Kyren Wilson is my third quarter choice for this event. The youngster had a great season last year, all that was missing is his second ranking title. A finalist at the World Open and the English Open in the Autumn, he also excelled in the triple crown events making the Masters final and World Championship semi's. It is hard to believe given his sharp rise and his performances in the last year or two that his only ranking win is still his breakthrough win from the 2015 Shanghai Masters, nearly three years ago. It would be more surprising if he does not add to his trophy collection this season, given his performances and the belief he should have in his game. Taking the title this week in Latvia would lay down a big marker for what he could achieve in the rest of the season, which is why I think he will be in the latter stages this week. 

Best of the rest: Stephen Maguire

Quarter choice: Kyren Wilson

Quarter 4 

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Graeme Dott or Maris Volajs Vs Tian Pengfei 
Anthony McGill Vs Ashley Carty
Marco Fu Vs Xiao Guodong 
Luca Brecel Vs Mark Davis 
Rory McLeod Vs Zhang Yong
Mark Williams or Rhys Clark Vs Ben Woollaston 
Oliver Lines Vs Alfie Burden
Jack Lisowski Vs Ian Burns 

Mark Williams will be making his first appearance in tournament since winning the World Championship in May, and he will be doing so in a tournament where he has come close in the last two seasons. In 2016 he lost out in the semi-finals 5-4 to Michael Holt, and then last year he fell in the same round in another close contest with Ryan Day. He faces a heldover last 128 match which he should come through comfortably, before what should be a tougher match against Ben Woollaston. There are plenty of big names that could threaten the World Champion in Riga this week, and become the first player to beat him since he won the title, though many of them are in the opposing half of this section. 

A pair of top Scots in Anthony McGill and Graeme Dott could meet in the last 32. Dott has a heldover match against a Latvian wildcard before facing Tian Pengfei in the last 64, while McGill will tackle tour rookie Ashley Carty after beating another rookie in Kishan Hirani in order to qualify. Both players suffered disappointing defeats in World Open qualifying though, and when you look at some of the names in this section, nothing but the best will get the job done. 

Marco Fu, Luca Brecel and Xiao Guodong are three more players that are all more than capable of winning this quarter or even walking away with the title on Sunday night, though only one of them can possibly make it to the last 16. Fu will be feeling invigorated after victories in both his opening qualifiers, his first two wins since the Scottish Open in December 2017, following his eye surgery. Xiao Guodong was the man that ended Fu's title defence that week in Glasgow, in one of his many good runs last season that indicated he is back to the sort of form that saw him make the Shanghai Masters final in 2013. Luca Brecel meanwhile had a pretty miserable end to the 2017/2018 season, but he has qualified for both of the first two tournaments and will now be looking to start his season in a similar style to last year. He was a semi-finalist in the World Open which comes up in a few weeks time, following his victory in the China Championship which has been pushed back a few weeks in the calendar. 

My fourth and final quarter pick for the week though is young Jack Lisowski. For a few years after he made the quarter-finals of the China Open in 2013 it looked like he would never fully make his big breakthrough. That was until last season where he matched that quarter-final at the English Open, and then bettered it by making the Shanghai Masters semi-finals, before coming close to another semi-final in the China Open. He scored heavily on a consistent basis throughout the season and, while remaining aggressive, was a little bit more measured with some of the risks he took on, having looked to improve his safety game. The next step for Lisowski is to make a maiden ranking final like Holt did here in 2016, or go one better by winning his first major title, matching Day's performance last year. This event seems to allow players to make a breakthrough, whether that is because it is early in the season with the top players yet to hit their stride, or because a few other big names have not entered and the draw is unseeded. That is why I have picked Lisowski out in this quarter and Jones in the top quarter because their draws do not look ridiculously tough, and they are two of the players I am looking at to make a big move up the rankings.  

Best of the rest: Xiao Guodong

Quarter choice: Jack Lisowski 

Tournament winner selection: Kyren Wilson


All matches in the early stages of the tournament are best-of-7 frames with the semi-finals and final being contested over the best-of-9 frames which certainly makes for even more of a lottery in the season's first full event. For those looking to watching the three days of play, Eurosport TV and Eurosport Player will be covering the big names throughout the tournament. The last 64 will take place in it's entirety on Friday, along with the four heldover ties. Saturday will see the last 32 and last 16 matches, before the action concludes on Sunday with the final three rounds and the crowning of the first champion in the 2018/2019 professional season. 

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