Saturday 22 September 2018

China Championship Preview

Following the recent Shanghai Masters, snooker is once again heading to China this week for the China Championship in Guangzhou.

This will be the second time that this event has been staged as a ranking event, and the third time overall. Luca Brecel is the defending champion after winning this title in August last year by defeating Shaun Murphy in the final to win his maiden ranking title. John Higgins was the winner a year earlier when the event was played as an invitational, with Stuart Bingham losing out in the final on that occasion.

Unfortunately for the event, recent Shanghai Masters champion Ronnie O'Sullivan is not in the field after deciding not to enter the last 128 qualifiers that were held in August. Paul Hunter Classic and Six-Reds World champion Kyren Wilson is also not in Guangzhou after withdrawing from the event for personal reasons.

The rest of the biggest and best names that snooker has to offer will be making the journey over with £150,000 and the fourth ranking title of the season up for grabs, as the season really starts to heat up with lots of action coming up on the calendar. The event also presents an opportunity to get into the Champion of Champions in November, with a number of top players such as Judd Trump, Ding Junhui and Barry Hawkins all yet to secure their places in Coventry. Though with a number of repeat winners of the qualifying events Ding, Hawkins and Trump are all well placed to qualify if the organisers decide to award any remaining spots via the world ranking list.

With so many players to look out for, here is how the draw looks for the upcoming week:

Quarter 1

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Luca Brecel or Joe O'Connor Vs Martin O'Donnell
Tom Ford Vs Nigel Bond
Marco Fu Vs Zhang Anda
Liang Wenbo or Alfie Burden Vs John Astley
Joe Perry Vs Mark Joyce
Lu Haotian W/O Kyren Wilson
Xiao Guodong Vs Mark Davis
Shaun Murphy Vs Liam Highfield

Shaun Murphy has had two close calls in the previous staging of this event. Last year he was a big favourite to win as the experienced player going into the final with Brecel but came out on the wrong side after falling away after taking an early lead to lose 10-5. In 2016 he lost out a round earlier in a high quality semi-final where Stuart Bingham edged him 9-8. Under normal circumstances with that sort of past tournament form you would make Murphy a good shout for a big run this week. However, he missed the recent Shanghai Masters to be with his family after newborn baby daughter Molly was ill in hospital. Fortunately things have improved since and it was noted that Murphy competed in an Irish pro-am this week which featured the likes of Mark Allen and Ken Doherty, but Murphy took the title with a 4-0 win over Fergal O'Brien in the final.

Liang Wenbo is perhaps someone that could contend in this section now after the withdrawal of in-form Kyren Wilson. It has been a quiet start to the season for Liang and he will start here with yet another heldover last 128 clash. It did not work out as planned in the World Open when James Cahill took him down 5-1. He has work ahead of him in order to stay as the number two Chinese player and avoid trips to the UK qualifiers for future Chinese events. Even though you would expect him to get through the first couple of rounds there is no reason why he may not fall prior to a potential last 32 meeting with Marco Fu, who you would make favourite to beat Liang if that arises.

Luca Brecel is the defending champion in what will be a special period for him. This week he arrives as a defending champion of a ranking event for the very first time and next week he will be playing a ranking event on home turf at the European Masters. It all means that, like Liang, he has a heldover last 128 match to start his week off in Guangzhou. His draw is not straightforward though, as it would be no surprise to see Martin O'Donnell cause him problems in the last 64 or Tom Ford do the same in a potential last 32 clash before possibly playing Fu or Liang in the last 16. He has not had a good time of it in China recently either, losing in the preliminary round of the Shanghai Masters to Zhou Yuelong and relinquishing a 4-0 lead against Fergal O'Brien in the World Open. His appearance in the semi-finals of the Six-Reds is really the only positive from his season and he may be putting a lot of pressure on himself given what these next two events bring.

Marco Fu is my first quarter choice for the China Championship. It has been a long road back for Fu and now his task is to recover the ranking he had after one of his best ever seasons in 2016/2017. There are positives coming here having made the quarter-finals of the World Open before falling to eventual runner-up David Gilbert. The quality of his scoring is still as high as ever and once he gets a few more events under his belt he could be right back to the sensational form he was displaying in that aforementioned period. At the 2016 Scottish Open he was simply unplayable and it is eye trouble that has halted progress in the last 12 months rather than any kind of form loss. Looking at the draw, he is probably the player you would look at most favourably, even though he has some tough names to negotiate, though even Murphy has a tough route despite no top 16 players standing between him and a place in the quarter-finals potentially. Over the next couple of months I think Fu will really start building up his confidence with a run of good results starting here in Guangzhou. 

Best of the rest: Luca Brecel

Quarter choice: Marco Fu

Quarter 2

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold)

Judd Trump Vs Rhys Clark
Anthony Hamilton Vs Jamie Jones
Stuart Bingham Vs Peter Ebdon
Yan Bingtao Vs Chris Wakelin
Jack Lisowski Vs Kurt Maflin 
Stephen Maguire Vs Scott Donaldson
Michael White Vs Mei Xiwen 
John Higgins Vs Allan Taylor

Judd Trump is one of the big names in this second section of the draw, but so far there has been little to talk about in his 2018/2019. Non entries in the Riga Masters and Paul Hunter Classic mean he has only played in two events so far, both of which were in China. At the World Open he was defeated in the last 32, 5-3 by an in-form Gary Wilson, before another in-form Wilson in the shape of Kyren took him down 6-2 in the last 16 of the invitational Shanghai Masters. It would not be a surprise if this was possibly another more quiet week for him as he builds his game towards events to come, such as the European Masters in Belgium where he will be looking to win for the third year in a row, and the English Open that is also coming up in October. He has a tough draw in a section that is packed from top to tail in class players, so a run to the semi-finals or beyond this week could be a huge boost in kick starting his season.

John Higgins has not had much tournament time as yet this season. Last time out in Shanghai he was beaten in the opening round by Ryan Day, having skipped the first three events of the new season. That may well have helped the Scot recover from another tough World final loss in May, allowing him to come back fresh and hungry to play once again. He is a former winner here, having won the invitational version of this event in 2016 but it is probably a little unrealistic to expect him to blaze through this section having only played three matches since losing to Mark Williams at the Crucible nearly five months ago.

Stuart Bingham has had a slow start to the new campaign and will be hoping to kick start things here in Guangzhou. He failed to qualify for the first two events in Riga and Yushan and was very nearly knocked out of this event in Preston by Craig Steadman, who led Bingham 4-2 before losing 5-4. In Shanghai recently, he won 6-0 against a Chinese wildcard, before the withdrawal of Murphy put him into the quarter-finals where he lost out 6-2 to Ronnie O'Sullivan. His draw is far from easy either, facing up to recent Paul Hunter Classic finalist Peter Ebdon in the last 64 with Yan Bingtao or the surging Chris Wakelin his last 32 opposition if he comes through.

Anthony Hamilton is someone who could put some good results together this week and see off some of the big boys. Much like Fu in the top quarter, he had one of his best ever seasons in 2016/2017 but back problems last year ruined what could have been a potential run back into the top 16. Now he needs good results this year to stay on tour, but has started brightly by making the last 16 of the first two events in Riga and Yushan, as well as winning his three August qualifiers for the loss of just one frame. Jamie Jones in the last 64 is a tough opponent but an in-form Hamilton should be the favourite there in my view and would have a very good chance of sending Trump home early in a potential last 32 outing. He has made breaks for fun so far in the new campaign with 24 breaks of 50 or above, baring in mind his frames won tally is 41 thus far.

Could this be the week that Jack Lisowski picks up a ranking title? It is hardly a secret that he is in the form of his life having followed a career best season in 2017/2018 with a run to the final of this season's first tournament. Following that he has added back-to-back quarter-finals, both of which could have seen him go on further and maybe even pick up that illusive silverware. Lisowski is my second quarter pick as the form man that is in Guanghzhou. He starts off in the last 64 against the unpredictable Kurt Maflin. The Norwegian could overcome Lisowski just as easily as he could be soundly beaten, but if Lisowski focuses on his own game, rather than worrying about which Maflin will turn up on Monday, he is the worthy favourite. From there, plenty of top players stand in his way but none that he would be scared of as he seems to be pretty fearless right now. 

Best of the rest: Anthony Hamilton

Quarter choice: Jack Lisowski

Quarter 3

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Mark Selby Vs Akani Songsermsawad
Robert Milkins Vs Jimmy Robertson or Chang Bingyu
Ryan Day Vs Mike Dunn or Luo Zetao
David Gilbert Vs Hossein Vafei
Mark King Vs Sam Craigie
Mark Allen Vs Matthew Selt
Alexander Ursenbacher Vs Yuan Sijun
Ding Junhui or Lee Walker Vs Daniel Wells

Mark Selby as you would expect is one of the tournament favourites this week. The two major events he has played in this season so far have both been in China and have seen rare final frame defeats. At the World Open he was beaten in the last 16 5-4 by Noppon Saengkham. Then last week in Shanghai, he was beaten in the quarter-final 6-5 by Ding Junhui. His draw is far from easy with young Akani Songsermsawad providing his first threat in Guangzhou, with Robert Milkins, Jimmy Robertson, Ryan Day and David Gilbert all sitting between him and a potential quarter-final spot. In top battling form though Selby will more than likely still take care of business, but with events being sporadic in the early season, it feels as though you would need to see his first match or two to judge how he is going to do both in this event, but also for the tournaments that come quickly after this.

Mark Allen has had an inbetween start to his season thus far. In the events he has featured in, he reached the last 16 in Riga, made the last 32 in the World Open before losing to Lisowski and then lost out in the Shanghai Masters last 16 to Ding Junhui. His first round opponent this week is Matthew Selt who beat Allen at the German Masters, in his first outing since winning the Masters earlier this year. Looking further ahead, a potential last 16 repeat against Ding is a possibility who he really does not have a great overall record with either.

David Gilbert is going to be out for redemption when he kicks off his campaign here this week. Last time out in China, Gilbert was a finalist and was well ahead in the final against Mark Williams, before the world champion came through 10-9. That will have hurt greatly as his search for a ranking title continues, having also reached the International Championship final three years ago. Perhaps if he could make another ranking final in China or indeed elsewhere it would be third time lucky, as someone with his break-building skill and pure ball-striking is still more than capable of picking up multiple trophies in the remainder of his career.

Ryan Day has become a tournament contender much more in the last 18 months and again he could be one to watch this week. His results at the start of the season have seen him lose in the last 64 in Riga, but 4-3 to Ali Carter, and in the last 32 of the World Open, though that was 5-2 to eventual semi-finalist Noppon Saengkham. Last time out he defeated John Higgins in Shanghai before losing a tight quarter-final with the in-form Kyren Wilson where he was 3-1 ahead at one stage. His draw is by no means easy with a potential second round tie with David Gilbert in what you would expect to be a tight game if it were to arise. Should he come through though, there is no reason why he could not have another big run.

Ding Junhui is my third quarter choice for the China Championship. When looking at the quarter in full the first thing that came to mind was that Ding had just beaten potential last 16 opponent Allen and potential quarter-final opponent Selby in the same rounds of the Shanghai Masters, where he would eventually lose a very tight semi-final with Barry Hawkins. Looking at his opponents in his first three matches, if the Chinese number one is somewhere near his best you would expect him to come through unscathed and make the last 16. He did lose in the last 32 of the World Open, though that was his first event of the season and his wife was due to give birth at any time. Since then he has also played in the Six-Reds losing the final to Wilson. His game looks to be in good shape which on home soil obviously makes him a very solid choice. 

Best of the rest: Ryan Day

Quarter choice: Ding Junhui

Quarter 4

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold)

Barry Hawkins Vs Ashley Carty
Noppon Saengkham Vs Xu Si
Neil Robertson Vs Gerard Greene
Graeme Dott or Bai Langning Vs Stuart Carrington or He Guoqiang
Ali Carter Vs Fergal O'Brien
Anthony McGill Vs Zhao Xintong
Gary Wilson Vs Luo Honghao
Mark Williams or Rod Lawler Vs Ken Doherty

Neil Robertson started the season in perfect fashion by taking the first ranking title of the year in Riga. Since then, the Australian has had two outings in China, losing in the last 32 of the World Open to Ricky Walden and then having the misfortune to draw Ronnie O'Sullivan in the last 16 in Shanghai. He starts this week against Gerard Greene before a potential run-in with Graeme Dott who has had a pretty quiet start to the new season. Robertson's scoring has been unbelievable at the start of this season, having made 17 centuries in just 14 matches, though even in his out of form period a year or so ago, he was still scoring heavily but was not putting his play together for a full match and leaving the door open for his opponents.

Mark Williams returns to China having won the World Open earlier this season, to put an early exit in Riga to the back of his mind. His exit to amateur Mohammed Shehab in the first knockout round of the Six-Reds will not trouble him either and there is no shame at all in the 6-4 loss he suffered in the quarter-finals of the Shanghai Masters to Barry Hawkins. His draw for the first couple of rounds in Guangzhou features plenty of experience, but he should be able to come through comfortably to the last 32. There he could face Gary Wilson who made the quarter-finals of the World Open and could really cause the world champion some problems. If the early rounds are negotiated though, there is certainly potential for another title to add to his growing collection.

Ali Carter and Anthony McGill are two top players that I could very easily see losing early on this week. Starting with Carter, he faces solid Fergal O'Brien who will pounce if Carter is not at his best. The Captain was not in Shanghai and has only played two events this season where he lost in the last 32 on both occasions so does not bring much form to Guangzhou. O'Brien meanwhile has already had some good results in the new season, defeating Luca Brecel and Zhao Xintong in tough matches on the way to the last 16 in Yushan as well as beating Shaun Murphy in the Paul Hunter Classic. McGill meanwhile faces up to Zhao Xintong who has gotten off to a much more solid start. McGill lost out in the last 64 in Riga and failed to qualify for the World Open, as well as then failing to qualify for the delayed Indian Open in August. Zhao meanwhile has won every qualifier he has played, and made the last 16 in Riga with a whitewash of Murphy on the way that featured two centuries. He has also beaten Matthew Stevens (twice), Graeme Dott and Ricky Walden so big name players do not seem to be bringing any fear out in the youngster.

Barry Hawkins is my fourth and final quarter choice this week and in all-honesty he is one of the stand-out stars of the new season. In the past, Hawkins has been a bit of a slow starter to a season, but that is not the case this time around. His last three trips to China have seen him reach two finals (the China Open and recent Shanghai Masters) and a semi-final (at the World Open) so he is certainly the form man in this part of the world right now. Add in his World Championship semi-final and Welsh Open final from the end of last season and he has reached at least the semi-finals in five of his last eight events (the Gibraltar Open, Romanian Masters and Riga Masters being the odd ones out). Out of the 31 frames Hawkins won on the way to an 11-9 final loss in Shanghai he made 19 breaks of 50 or more, with seven of those passing the century mark which is the sign of a man at the very top of his game and will make him incredibly tough to beat if he re-creates that here in Guangzhou. The only thing missing from Hawkins recent play is a trophy and if he kicks into gear again here then that tournament victory might not be far away. 

Best of the rest: Zhao Xintong

Quarter choice: Barry Hawkins

Tournament winner selection: Barry Hawkins

The tournament if played over the best-of-9 frames from the last 64 through to the best-of-11 semi-finals and the best-of-19 frame final. Full coverage of the tournament will be available on Eurosport TV and Eurosport Player. 

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