Monday, 17 December 2018

German Masters Qualifying Preview

Following victory for Mark Allen in the Scottish Open at the weekend, there is just one piece of snooker business to attend to in the calendar year of 2018.

Starting on Tuesday in Barnsley, 128 starters will be trimmed down to the 32 players that will travel to Berlin for the German Masters. The opening round will be played over the first eight sessions this week, with three sessions of playing taking place each day. From Thursday evening, the final four sessions will be devoted to the last 64 as the final line-up is confirmed.

Having just lifted the Scottish Open title, made the UK Championship and guaranteed to be the number one seed for the World Grand Prix whatever happens this week and in Berlin, Allen is one of the non-entries for this event. 2012 Berlin champion Ronnie O'Sullivan is the other notable non-entry, while Rhys Clark and James Wattana from lower down the rankings have also chosen to give this week a miss.

The search for a home player to qualify is extended this year as Lukas Kleckers is joined by new German pro Simon Lichtenberg while amateur Richard Wienold has been invited to take part. Also, young teenager Ben Mertens from Belgium who reached the last 64 of the Paul Hunter Classic has been invited.

Qualifying Section 1 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Mark Williams Vs Fan Zhengyi
Hossein Vafei Vs Jak Jones

The first section is headlined by defending champion Mark Williams, who cruised to victory in Berlin last year with a crushing win over Graeme Dott. The Welshman comes into this event after skipping the Scottish Open and taking a holiday so it will be interesting to see if that makes him more vulnerable or more refreshed. He should have no trouble in round one against Fan Zhengyi who has not shown enough to offer thoughts that he could produce an upset here. 

The other contenders in this section are fellow Welshman Jak Jones who I give the slight edge in a tight looking match against Hossein Vafei. Hossein has not really got his season going as yet and was a no show recently in Scotland with multiple rumours started on why that was. For me, Jones is the most likely winner of that one but he would need Williams to be below par if he were to qualify for the venue.  

Predicted qualifier: Mark Williams

Qualifying Section 2

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Zhou Yuelong Vs Zhang Anda
Michael Holt Vs Dominic Dale

Section two is a very competitive section where a case could be made for each of the four players. Zhou Yuelong is the stand out in my view given some of his recent form, with victories over Mark Williams and Barry Hawkins in the home nations events. Zhang Anda will offer a threat to Zhou but if Zhou is at or close to his best he is simply a class above Zhang who does not have as much consistency. 

Dominic Dale's form has not been up to scratch this season so far and has left him fighting for tour survival as he faces Michael Holt. That will certainly add pressure to Dale who may already have half an eye on the commentary box given some of his recent comments. Holt has not hit top form yet this season, though he threatened in Northern Ireland by beating Stephen Maguire and Mark King before his run was halted in the last 32 on the final black by Zhou. All in all, Zhou probably has the slight edge on his three fellow competitors in this section. 

Predicted qualifier: Zhou Yuelong

Qualifying Section 3

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Ali Carter Vs Sam Craigie 
Sam Baird Vs David Lilley

There is a nice mix of players in section three headlined by former German Masters champion Ali Carter. He takes on Sam Craigie in the opening round and Craigie will be looking to put some recent tight losses in the UK Championship and Scottish Open behind him to get the win here. Carter has had an interesting season with a couple of quarter-finals and further last 16 appearances but he is yet to quite kick on. 

Sam Baird was the man to end Carter's run in Glasgow, coming from 3-1 adrift to defeat Carter 4-3 and progress to his first ever ranking quarter-final. After dropping off tour at the end of last season, he now looks back to the sort of form that has seen him make the last 16 at the Crucible in previous years. Baird faces David Lilley in round one and Lilley has a good record of winning his last 128 matches this season, despite not being on the tour. He was at it again in Glasgow defeating Tom Ford for the second time this season and that came after Ford had just competed in the UK Championship semi-finals, so do not rule him out here. While Carter is the obvious favourite there is certainly potential for any of the other three players in this section to upset that. 

Predicted qualifier: Sam Baird 

Qualifying Section 4

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Joe Perry Vs Ashley Carty
Chris Totten Vs Andy Lee

Much like the first section, there is a runaway favourite in this section as Joe Perry leads the way. Perry has had a good season so far, making the final of the European Masters, the quarter-finals of the UK Championship and who knows how far he could have gone in Scotland last week if it wasn't for Kyren Wilson's revival from 3-1 down in the last 32. Perry faces Ashley Carty in round one and he is probably the most likely candidate to produce an upset here in section four as he is more than capable when on top scoring form. 

Chris Totten and Andy Lee should be a tight tussle between two players who will be desperate to get some ranking points on the board. It's difficult to split them because neither has shown enough form to make them a clear favourite and whoever does come through would be second favourite in the last 64 as well, regardless of who they face out of Perry and Carty. 

Predicted qualifier: Joe Perry 

Qualifying Section 5 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Peter Ebdon Vs Farakh Ajaib 
Mark King Vs Rod Lawler

Section five is another tight section to call and sees the first of the amateurs in the draw in the shape of Farakh Ajaib. Peter Ebdon is the man taking on the Q School top-up in round one and again he will be a pretty big favourite having shown glimpses of some good form this season, by making the Paul Hunter Classic final and the quarter-finals of the Northern Ireland Open. Ebdon will be second favourite to qualify for Berlin behind Mark King but he is still more than capable of producing the goods and you would expect him to be there battling for a place at the Tempodrome in the last 64. 

King against Rod Lawler is a slightly tougher call but King should still just have the edge with Lawler proving pretty hit and miss this season, after a poor season last year as well. King also suffered very few first round exits this season and was a losing semi-finalist in the European Masters. A possible match-up between Ebdon and King in the last 64 could go the full distance and would be an excellent battle. 

Predicted qualifier: Peter Ebdon

Qualifying Section 6 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Jimmy White Vs Harvey Chandler
Shaun Murphy Vs Martin O'Donnell 

This section has taken a slightly different look after events in Glasgow. Had Shaun Murphy suffered another earlier exit at the Scottish Open then it would have been tough to pick him to beat Martin O'Donnell here in round one. However, Murphy found something and reached the final with victories over Kyren Wilson and Judd Trump in there before a narrow loss to Mark Allen in the final. It still leaves him 31st on the World Grand Prix list with just the German Masters to go before the cut off, so he is by no means safe yet. O'Donnell has reached three quarter-finals this season and is 16th on the Grand Prix list, so well ahead of Murphy on that front and he has shown that he is still capable of pulling off the victory here, even after Murphy's Glasgow run. 

Expect a match that goes to the wire and whoever does come through will be a big favourite to beat either Jimmy White or Harvey Chandler in the last 64. White qualified for this event two years ago with a nice win over Joe Perry and this match with Chandler also shapes up to be a close contest with Chandler showing glimpses of his best form in the first half of his rookie season. 

Predicted qualifier: Shaun Murphy

Qualifying Section 7 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Mark Davis Vs Rory McLeod 
Martin Gould Vs Adam Duffy

Section 7 brings with it another former German Masters champion in the shape of Martin Gould who captured this title back in 2016. His season has not quite sprung into life like it did that year when he was in superb form. He has only won money in three events this season which is partly due to the fact that he has only entered six ranking events, with this being his seventh of the season. You still have to make him a good favourite against Q School top-up Adam Duffy, who had more than enough chances to beat John Higgins in Glasgow on the TV table but he just could not get over the line when it mattered. 

Mark Davis will be hoping to give himself more chances to repeat what he did back in October at the English Open, where he made his first career ranking final. He starts off here with a qualifying match against Rory McLeod who is in serious need of victories as the race for tour survival starts to get a lot more serious. On this season's money list he has earned just £16,000 which is only enough to put him 76th so a big improvement is needed from him in the next four or five months. Overall, based on recent form you have to say that Davis is a worthy favourite to win this section. 

Predicted qualifier: Mark Davis

Qualifying Section 8 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Alfie Burden Vs Oliver Lines
Kyren Wilson Vs Ian Burns

Section 8 on paper may look like one where Kyren Wilson should be the man booking his flights to Berlin at the end of the week, but last year in these qualifiers he simply ran out of steam and motivation and suffered an early exit. Ian Burns could cause trouble for him if he is below par in the last 128 and Alfie Burden is also a big threat in this section. 

Burden made the last 16 of the International Championship a few weeks ago and last week in Glasgow he made the quarter-finals. The common denominator in both of those runs is that he pulled off some strong victories before losing out to eventual winner Mark Allen on both occasions. I certainly see Burden being too strong for Oliver Lines if he keeps that form up, especially since Lines is just outside of the top 100 on the provisional Grand Prix list while Burden is 52nd and in all honesty he could be even higher than that but for a couple of tight losses to Liang in the Autumn. Overall, a quarter-final at the UK Championship followed by a tight last 16 loss in Scotland show no suggestion that Wilson is likely to tail off this week, but if he did Burden is the man most likely to pounce. 

Predicted qualifier: Alfie Burden

Qualifying Section 9 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Barry Hawkins Vs Michael White 
Stuart Carrington Vs Adam Stefanow

Section 9 is another really tough section to call given recent form. Barry Hawkins has gone quiet of late, losing in the last 128 of both the Northern Ireland Open and the Scottish Open as well as the last 32 in the International Championship and English Open. Prior to Christmas here he faces a tough tie against Michael White, though the Welshman has had a very poor season by his standards. He has earned just £13,000 so far this season and is 87th on the Grand Prix list and would have to win this title in order to qualify for Cheltenham.

The dark horse in the section is recent Scottish Open quarter-finalist Stuart Carrington who is 25th on the Grand Prix list and assured of making his debut in the event. He has qualified for Berlin before with a victory over Ronnie O'Sullivan to do so and he is a massive favourite against Adam Stefanow who has only picked up one win this season (defeating Jamie Clarke who is yet to win this season). At his best Carrington is a terrific scorer and is well capable of pulling off upsets and now looks capable of making the latter stages of tournaments too. If Hawkins does not have his A game then Carrington could well qualify for Berlin once again. 

Predicted qualifier: Stuart Carrington

Qualifying Section 10

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Robert Milkins Vs Elliot Slessor
Eden Sharav Vs Allan Taylor

This section feels like an opportunity for all of the players involved given that there is no stand out favourite. Robert Milkins is the highest ranked player though at 37th on the Grand Prix list he has work to do to make it through to Cheltenham and needs to make at least the quarter-finals in Berlin. Aside from a last 16 run at the World and English Opens Milkins has suffered some early exits so could be vulnerable in this section. Elliot Slessor is more than capable of getting the win but he has had a tough season as well, sitting level with Michael White on the Grand Prix list.

Eden Sharav is actually the highest of the four on the one-year list, just ahead of Milkins largely thanks to his semi-final at the Northern Ireland Open as well as good wins in the English Open and International Championship prior to that. Again in all likelihood he would need to make the quarter-finals of this event to make the Grand Prix but you would expect him to beat Allan Taylor in round one who has failed to win a match since the last 128 stage of the English Open. Overall, this section could come down to a close contest between Milkins and Sharav in the last 64.  

Predicted qualifier: Robert Milkins

Qualifying Section 11 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Stephen Maguire Vs Daniel Wells 
Gerard Greene Vs Xu Si 

Section 11 produces a big tie between recent Scottish Open semi-finalist Daniel Wells and UK Championship quarter-finalist and top 16 player Stephen Maguire. Wells is someone I am becoming a big fan of in recent times, particularly after the excellent match that he and Zhao Xintong produced in the UK Championship. In Glasgow he had some good fortune to get the first round walkover after Ronnie O'Sullivan's withdrawal but he jumped all over it. Victories over the likes of David Gilbert, Matthew Stevens and Ryan Day followed before that heart-breaking loss to Mark Allen. Without a real massive winning chance in that match it is hard to say he crumbled under pressure or anything like that, Allen simply came to life in the closing stages which should make it an easier loss to get over.

Maguire did not get started at his home event, losing convincingly in round one to Billy Castle in a real shock result, which would make victory for Wells much less of a surprise. The Scot was in great form though in York so Wells will need to continue his Glasgow form if he is to pull off the victory. The other match features Gerard Greene against Xu Si in a really tight match to call. Both have won the odd match here or there with Greene slightly ahead of Xu on the Grand Prix, though both are around either side of the 100 mark and only separated by nine places. Whoever were to come, they have yet to show the sort of form this season to convince me that they would beat Wells or Maguire. 

Predicted qualifier: Daniel Wells

Qualifying Section 12

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Graeme Dott Vs Sean O'Sullivan 
Michael Georgiou Vs Mei Xiwen

Section 12 is where we find last year's finalist Graeme Dott. The Scot had an excellent few days in Berlin last year recovering from 4-0 down in the quarter-finals and then defeating an in-form Shaun Murphy in the semi-finals before falling flat against Williams. After reaching the last 16 of the Scottish Open, before losing to eventual champion Allen, I see no reason why he should not beat Sean O'Sullivan in round one and go on to win this section.

Sean O'Sullivan has won just one match this season, while Michael Georgiou, who faces Mei Xiwen, is a lowly 81st on the Grand Prix and is yet to rediscover the form that took him to Shoot-Out victory and some good wins straight after that. That makes him a second favourite against Mei, who was beaten by Dott in this event last year at the last 16 stage. Mei has picked up enough wins this season to put him in mid-table on the one-year list at 55. Overall, Dott is still a very strong pick to return to the Tempodrome. 

Predicted qualifier: Graeme Dott

Qualifying Section 13

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Peter Lines Vs Lu Ning 
Yan Bingtao Vs Robin Hull

Section 13 is a good looking section that could produce some interesting results. Starting with Yan Bingtao and Robin Hull there is potential for a slight upset here. Yan is 24th on the Grand Prix list so is safe for Cheltenham but failed to qualify for this event 12 months ago and has been consistent this season without setting the world alight. Hull in my view has played a lot better than his one-season ranking of 106 suggests but there have been some really tough draws in there for him and this is certainly another. He has looked good recently but not quite gotten over the line in a couple of matches. He had a massive chance to beat Ryan Day in the last 32 of the Northern Ireland Open, just as he did in the last 16 of this event two years ago, while from 4-4 against Liam Highfield in the UK Championship Highfield was excellent to win 6-4.

Meanwhile, Peter Lines and Lu Ning is a really interesting clash. Lu had only earned £1,000 this season when he turned up at the Northern Ireland Open but has had an excellent run of results since then. He reached the last 16 there in Belfast, the last 16 in York and only missed out on another last 16 appearance in Glasgow by the odd frame. That has lifted him to 60th on the Grand Prix list which is 14 spots ahead of Lines, who will be desperate to return to Germany after making his maiden ranking semi-final this summer in Furth and he could do with some more big runs to guarantee his tour safety for next season. This section is so tight and all three matches played could easily go close, but on recent form Lu is a strong pick to qualify. 

Predicted qualifier: Lu Ning

Qualifying Section 14 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Alan McManus Vs Ken Doherty
Luca Brecel Vs Matthew Stevens

Section 14 is an incredibly strong section with Luca Brecel in there representing the top 16 along with three former top players. Starting with Brecel, he is 34th on the Grand Prix list after a tough season and he cannot afford to lose prior to the last 16 to have any chance of making it to Cheltenham, though in all likelihood he will need his first ranking quarter-final since November 2017 to make it into the top 32 there. His last 32 loss in Glasgow means that he has curiously gone the entire of 2018 without reaching a ranking quarter-final, yet he remains in the top 16 thanks largely to his China Championship victory in August 2017. In Matthew Stevens, he has a first round opponent who looks to be coming back to some of his old form, sitting 26th on the Grand Prix list thanks largely to his mammoth semi-final run at the International Championship, though he does come into this qualifier after a last 16 run in Glasgow also.

The other last 128 match between Alan McManus and Ken Doherty would have been a big tour survival clash for both players, before McManus overcame John Higgins on the way to the last 32 of the UK Championships. That run has along with a greater consistency of winning first round matches this season has promoted him to 55th on the provisional end-of-season list, while Doherty in 61st is now the man under pressure. For the reason I mentioned with the McManus first round consistency you would give him the edge over Doherty though Stevens looks a solid choice to upset Brecel and win the section. 

Predicted qualifier: Matthew Stevens

Qualifying Section 15

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Li Hang Vs Lu Haotian 
Anthony Hamilton Vs Luo Honghao

Section 15 is another section that looks wide open. 2017 German Master Anthony Hamilton is in a big tour survival battle, sat at 65th on the provisional end-of-season list after injuries ruined his 2017/2018 campaign. Victory over Luo would keep him in with a slim chance of making the Grand Prix which would really help to boost his tour survival hopes. Standing in his way is Luo Honghao who showed what he could do on the way to the English Open quarter-finals in October. That kicked his season into gear and he is in the top half on the Grand Prix list and could easily defeat Hamilton if his opponent struggled as badly as he did at the UK Championships recently.

Li Hang and Lu Haotian presents a very interesting match. Lu should have been a certainty for the Grand Prix after making the China Championship semi-finals, but his first round win in Glasgow was his first and only win since that semi-final in September. Li has not hit top form either for any consistent length of time in this campaign. His scoring in Northern Ireland on the way to the last 16 produced his best result of the season and hinted at better things and they may come here. Overall, every one of the four players in this section has a very realistic chance but if Luo beat Hamilton in round one I would fancy him to edge it. 

Predicted qualifier: Luo Honghao

Qualifying Section 16 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Lukas Kleckers Vs Hammad Miah
Judd Trump Vs Robbie Williams 

The final section in the top half of the draw looks a very one-sided one. Judd Trump, a former finalist in Berlin, is the clear favourite from the four players in this section. His recent Scottish Open semi-final continued on from the form that took him to the title in Belfast recently and it is hard to see anyone in this section touching him.

Miah and Kleckers are both outside of the top 100 on the Grand Prix list and while their opening round match could be a real close fight, a last 64 meeting with Trump would most likely be the exact opposite. Robbie Williams meanwhile is under big pressure. An average start to the season has left him 82nd on the Grand Prix list and 64th on the provisional end of season list, so tough draws like this are not what he needs for his tour survival hopes. Trump should be cruising to Berlin in this section. 

Predicted qualifier: Judd Trump

Qualifying Section 17

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

John Higgins Vs Soheil Vahedi 
Chris Wakelin Vs Zhang Jiankang

John Higgins is the headliner as we get into the bottom half of the draw. His first round tie against Soheil Vahedi looks very one-sided on paper, even with Higgins' recent inconsistent form. He showed signs of a turnaround at his home event with a 147 break in his second round match but would eventually bow out in the last 16 to Alfie Burden. It has been a tough time for Higgins but that does not mean he has forgotten to win by any means. He says he has struggled to get motivated again though and you have to worry about how motivated he's going to be in qualifying matches in the week leading up to Christmas.

Any dip below his best from Higgins could open the door for Chris Wakelin to come through this section. He has had a few tough draws of late but a first round tie against Zhang Jiankang should not really be one of them, even though he made the last 32 in Scotland and looks a capable player. The first round loss Wakelin suffered against O'Donnell in Glasgow meanwhile, was his first last 128 loss of the season, though his failure to consistently get to the last 32 or beyond is the main reason he is not higher than 46th on the Grand Prix list. This section probably comes down to what sort of form Higgins shows up with, if he's at his best or close to it then he should qualify, if not and Wakelin has an excellent chance. 

Predicted qualifier: John Higgins

Qualifying Section 18 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Noppon Saengkham Vs Liam Highfield 
Yuan Sijun Vs Ben Mertens

Section 18 features four players that are all under 30, with two teenagers and a combined age of 86 between the four of them (just three years older than my Nan). At 14, Ben Mertens is the youngest and he was only 13 back in August when he reached the last 64 of the Paul Hunter Classic but qualifying for the Tempodrome would be a monumental achievement. Three talented players surround him in this section and he starts out against 18-year-old Yuan Sijun who will more than likely win that one comfortably. Yuan is presently 29th on the Grand Prix list after a strong season and is well set to qualify for Cheltenham.

Noppon Saengkham and Liam Highfield is a much tougher match to call. Noppon is 19th on the Grand Prix list after a season that has contained a World Open semi-final and an English Open quarter-final, though he has also suffered first round exits in the last two home nations outings. Liam Highfield has not had quite as good a season, sitting 67th on the Grand Prix list, but his only first round exits have come at home nations events as well in Crawley and Glasgow, it is largely his failure to get beyond the last 64 that has left him as low as he is because he is a much better player than that. Whoever comes through out of Noppon and Highfield would be confident of delivering against Yuan, despite the season that the Chinese teenager has had, but this is another very close section.

Predicted qualifier: Noppon Saengkham

Qualifying Section 19 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Jack Lisowski Vs Mark Joyce
Gary Wilson Vs Chen Zifan

Jack Lisowski is the man to beat in this section. He takes on Mark Joyce in round one, with Joyce sitting at 72nd on the Grand Prix list after a very quiet season so far. For Lisowski, this is an event that he can certainly look to as one that could provide his first ranking title. Two of the last three winners were first time ranking winners (Hamilton and Gould) and now that he is into the top 16, securing a tournament win is the next outstanding goal for him.

Gary Wilson provides his major opposition in this section but the pressure is on for Wilson as he aims to keep his spot in the Grand Prix. At 32nd on the list a loss to Chen Zifan would mean that a first round victory for Zhou Yuelong would drop him out of the the all important top 32 on the list. Victory against Chen Zifan, who only has two to his name this season, would put him into a strong position and mean that those below would have to reach at least the last 16 to overtake him. If Lisowski is at his free scoring best then he should have enough to beat Wilson, but if Wilson is also in good scoring form then that could be a last 64 game that goes to the wire. 

Predicted qualifier: Jack Lisowski 

Qualifying Section 20 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Anthony McGill Vs Jordan Brown
Alexander Ursenbacher Vs Duane Jones

The highest ranked player in section 20 is Scotsman Anthony McGill, and despite his ranking of 70th on the Grand Prix list, he is still the highest ranked of the four in this section on that list also. His first round exit in Glasgow made it three last 128 defeats in a row for him in what has been a very tough spell for him, but that could well turnaround this week with a couple of wins to book his place in Berlin. He faces Jordan Brown in the last 128 who has had the odd good result this season, most notably a last 128 victory over Luca Brecel in the International Championship.

Also offering competition is Alexander Ursenbacher who should be favourite to topple Duane Jones in the last 128. Jones has showed little this season, while Ursenbacher has been a lot more consistent at winning his last 128 matches than he was after his English Open semi-final last season. His hit rate in the last 128 is 6 wins from 10 which is not bad considering there have been some tricky draws in there too. If McGill is still misfiring then Ursenbacher is the most likely candidate of the remaining three to deny him German Masters qualification. 

Predicted qualifier: Alexander Ursenbacher

Qualifying Section 21 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Zhao Xintong Vs Sanderson Lam 
Xiao Guodong Vs Thor Chuan Leong

Section 21 is one that will most likely come down to an exciting all-Chinese battle between Zhao Xintong and Xiao Guodong. Defeat for either in the last 128 would be a pretty big upset. For Zhao, he is certain of qualification for the Grand Prix at 23rd on the list and could easily break into the top 64 after just the first season of his two year tour card that he won back in May. His opponent Sanderson Lam meanwhile has only managed two wins this season, both of which came in Northern Ireland and barring a dramatic improvement or a real off day from Zhao there should only be one winner there.

Xiao meanwhile is slightly worse off at 28th on the Grand Prix list but with a nice three player buffer between himself and losing his Cheltenham place he should be safe. His season has been highlighted by a quarter-final run in the early season World Open, with just two first round exits coming in the home nations series. Thor Chuan Leong meanwhile has had just three wins this season and is outside of the top 100 on the Grand Prix list as well. Xiao was a quarter-finalist at this event last season but after losing from 4-0 up he has a bit of unfinished business, while Zhao continues to knock on the door. A potential last 64 meeting between the two could go right to the wire. 

Predicted qualifier: Zhao Xintong

Qualifying Section 22 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Akani Songsermsawad Vs Kishan Hirani 
Ryan Day Vs Lee Walker

Section 22 is another where I could see a top 16 player suffering an early exit. Ryan Day is the man this time that I feel could be under threat. His season has promised a bit more than it has delivered, with his run to the quarter-finals of the Scottish Open seeing him reach his fourth quarter-final of the season but thus far he has lost them all, despite going off favourite in three of them. In round one he faces Lee Walker who reached the quarter-finals of the Paul Hunter Classic in Germany earlier in the season. So far Walker has won 7 out of his 10 last 128 matches this season and Day knows what he will be up against here in this match.

Akani Songsermsawad features in the other last 128 tie and he will be on a quest to get into the World Grand Prix. His hopes suffered a big blow in Scotland as he drew eventual finalist Shaun Murphy in round one and has subsequently fallen to 36th and needs at least a quarter-final in Berlin to make it through to Cheltenham. Runs to the last 16 of both the International and UK Championships have shown what he is capable of though and Grand Prix qualification is not out of the question. His first round opponent Kishan Hirani has had some tough draws this season and managed just a couple of wins so far in his rookie season. Day could easily lose to Walker or Akani in my view if he is not at his best and Akani is certainly not a bad pick to make it through from this section. 

Predicted qualifier: Akani Songsermsawad

Qualifying Section 23 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Fergal O'Brien Vs Tian Pengfei 
Liang Wenbo Vs Thepchaiya Un-Nooh

Another very open section is the 23rd. The two higher ranked players in the two last 128 ties are probably in worse form than their opponents which makes for an interesting dynamic here. Fergal O'Brien is a man who needs victories in order to save his tour place, currently sitting at 63rd on the provisional end-of-season list, despite a start to the season that contained victories over the likes of Shaun Murphy, Ali Carter, Luca Brecel and Marco Fu. His first round opponent Tian Pengfei is in good touch though, having made the last 16 and last 32 in the last two events after an early season quarter-final at the European Masters. After missing two events, he has only suffered two first round losses in eight events, one of which was a best-of-7 frame match where he made three centuries. His scoring could well be the decisive factor against O'Brien and take him close to qualification.

In the other last 128 tie, Liang Wenbo will look to end his poor form as he faces Thepchaiya Un-Nooh. Liang has suffered three first round exits on the bounce, one of which was in the UK Championships after taking a 5-1 lead and overall he is 53rd on the Grand Prix list and in need of making the final in Berlin to advance to Cheltenham. Thepchiaya Un-Nooh is just ahead of him on the list despite his own first round exit in Scotland. Prior to that he made a quarter-final in Northern Ireland and has been in superb scoring form, losing just two first round matches out of nine this season. Overall, I think Tian and Un-Nooh will just come out on top in close calls with Tian winning the section. 

Predicted qualifier: Tian Pengfei

Qualifying Section 24 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Zhang Yong Vs Kuldesh Johal 
Ding Junhui Vs Nigel Bond

2014 German Masters champion Ding Junhui is the front runner in this section. Despite entering just five of the first ten ranking events this season and not yet getting beyond the last 16, he is still set to qualify for the Grand Prix, lying in 29th place. He is a clear favourite to beat Nigel Bond, though Bond is still capable of pulling off results and had a 136 in a losing cause against Shaun Murphy in the last 32 in Glasgow.

In the other last 128 tie, Zhang Yong faces amateur top-up Kuldesh Johal. This is just the second time that Johal has appeared as a top-up this season, after an early season run out at the Riga Masters. Zhang meanwhile is level with Bond on the one-year list and broke a run of three successive first round exits with his own run to the last 32 of the Scottish Open. Either way, it is hard to see anyone in this section defeating Ding if he is anywhere near his best. 

Predicted qualifier: Ding Junhui

Qualifying Section 25 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Neil Robertson Vs Jamie Clarke
Basem Eltahhan Vs James Cahill

The same as Ding could be said for Australia's Neil Robertson in this section. He is in a section that contains an amateur top-up in James Cahill and the only two remaining professionals that are yet to win a match this season. His first round opponent Jamie Clarke has come close but is yet to get over the line in the first half of his rookie season, a similar tale to how many near misses he needed to finally get on tour.

Meanwhile, Cahill will be favourite to beat struggling Basem Eltahhan. Cahill has beaten the likes of Mark Selby in the UK Championship and Liang Wenbo in the World Open, as well as reaching the last 64 in Scotland with a win over Thor Chuan Leong and he could have gone further in each of those three tournaments. He should beat Basem but whether he can challenge Riga Masters winner Robertson is an entirely different question and one that is probably answered with a no unless Robertson has a bad day at the office. 

Predicted qualifier: Neil Robertson

Qualifying Section 26 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Tom Ford Vs Joe O'Connor
Kurt Maflin Vs Paul Davison

The 26th section is headlined by recent UK Championship semi-finalist Tom Ford. His run to the last four there put him 22nd on the Grand Prix list and turned what had been a decent start to the season into a really good one. His last 128 opponent Joe O'Connor also got his season going more after a couple of wins in York against Ryan Day and Andrew Higginson, promoting him to 82nd on the one-year list and showing that he too can do some damage. If Ford is not on top form then that could be a close game, but if Ford scores heavily O'Connor may not be able to compete.

In the other last 128 match, Norway's Kurt Maflin takes on Paul Davison. Maflin has had an average year, sitting 66th on the Grand Prix list picking up a large amount of last 128 wins but failing to convert most of those much further than the last 64 stage. His first round opponent Davison had been having a pretty ordinary year but has picked up slightly by winning his last 128 match in both the UK Championship and Scottish Open to get him up above Joe O'Connor to 80th on this season's money list. Overall, Ford is clearly the stand out player in this section but if he's not quite at his best O'Connor could cause trouble while Maflin is always dangerous, should he defeat Davison in a tricky last 128 tie. 

Predicted qualifier: Tom Ford

Qualifying Section 27 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Stuart Bingham Vs Chen Feilong
Niu Zhuang Vs Simon Lichtenberg

Again we have another section that could be very one-sided for the top 16 player involved. This time it is Stuart Bingham who will be expected to come through and make it back to Berlin. He missed the event last season through suspension, but this year he is back on top form. His victory at the English Open has been backed up by a narrow UK Championship semi-final loss to Mark Allen. However, he lost a couple of first round matches early in the season and has also lost in round one of the last two home nations events, so he is not invincible at this stage. In Chen Feilong he has a first round opponent that is starting to get a taste for life on tour. Chen had failed to win a match on tour prior to his Northern Ireland victory over Marco Fu. That was backed up by a last 128 win over Shaun Murphy in the UK Championship and he also made the last 64 in Scotland last week. Bingham though is still rightfully a strong favourite.

Another German that has a chance to shine is Simon Lichtenberg but his qualification chances in this section are slim at best. He has only picked up a couple of wins this year but may be inspired by the opportunity to qualify for his home event, without actually having the pressure of playing his matches this week in front of his home fans. Niu Zhuang is his last 128 opponent and Niu has only won one more match than Lichtenberg this season so that presents an opportunity for both players to add to their tally this week. The section though feels like Bingham's to lose. 

Predicted qualifier: Stuart Bingham

Qualifying Section 28 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Jimmy Robertson Vs Dechawat Poomjaeng
Joe Swail Vs Richard Wienold 

The third and final German in the draw features in section 28 as amateur Richard Wienold takes on Joe Swail. Wienold is not a familiar name for many but German fans will recognise him as the winner of their amateur championship in 2017. After ending a run of four successive first round exits with a run to the last 32 on home turf, Swail has picked up the bulk of his season's winnings in his last three events and should have far too much class to be losing out to Wienold.

Another amateur features in this section as ex-tour pro Dechawat Poomjaeng takes on European Masters winner Jimmy Robertson. Things kicked up a gear for Robertson in this tournament last season when he made the quarter-finals to register his best ever ranking event finish at the time and perhaps gave him the confidence to go on and win in Lommel in October. He has not lost a last 128 match since that victory so you would not expect that too change against Poomjaeng who is winless from his appearances as a Q School top-up in the first half of this season. This section should really come down to a battle between Robertson and Swail which on current form should go the way of Robertson. 

Predicted qualifier: Jimmy Robertson

Qualifying Section 29 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Craig Steadman Vs Hamza Akbar 
David Gilbert Vs Ashley Hugill

This section features a man in David Gilbert who is in the top eight on the one-season money list, while the highest of the other three on the same list is Craig Steadman in 74th. That makes Gilbert a pretty big favourite, especially against Ashley Hugill in the last 128 who has been defeated in all of his last 128 matches apart from one this season. Gilbert meanwhile was the World Open runner-up early in the season and made the quarter-finals in Northern Ireland recently.

In the other match Steadman faces Hamza Akbar who, like Hugill, has only progressed beyond the first round in one event this season. That was in Northern Ireland where he reached the last 32, while Steadman has lost his last three first round ties in a row but had only lost two out of seven prior to that and he overcame Barry Hawkins in the European Masters to record his best finish of the season. This one will most likely come down to a Steadman Vs Gilbert battle where Steadman is capable of an upset but if Gilbert continues striking the ball as he has been for much of the season, then he will be hard to beat. 

Predicted qualifier: David Gilbert

Qualifying Section 30 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Ben Woollaston Vs Mike Dunn
Marco Fu Vs Matthew Selt

Section 30 is another where I can see a top 16 player suffering an early upset. Marco Fu is that man who is yet to get his mojo back this season. It started well with an early season quarter-final but he has not hit the same heights since but is still 27th on the Grand Prix list. In fact he has failed to get beyond the last 32 since the World Open, so an early exit here is well withing the realms of possibility. He faces Matthew Selt in round one who has also failed to hit the same heights as the World Open, where he reached the last 16. On his day he is capable of defeating Fu though, if his struggles continue.

Ben Woollaston is another man that could take advantage though it is surprising to see him as low as 61st on the Grand Prix list in all honesty. He had an excellent win over Mark Selby in the English Open but he has also had some tough draws in the home nations series. He has only lost three of his 10 last 128 ties this year, one of which was to Neil Robertson, while his opponent Mike Dunn has only gone beyond the first round in four events this season. As his Twitter followers will know, he has a tough time away from the table with his health but he is still good enough to produce the odd good run here and there which keeps him in the top 64. All in all, there is enough vulnerability wit Fu to see someone like Selt or Woollaston getting the better of him and going on to qualify for Berlin. 

Predicted qualifier: Ben Woollaston

Qualifying Section 31 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Li Yuan Vs Ross Muir
Ricky Walden Vs Scott Donaldson

Section 31 could be an all Scottish affair for a place in the last 32 at the Tempodrome. Ross Muir has done more than enough to go off favourite against Li Yuan. Muir defeated Neil Robertson to make the last 32 in Scotland last week and also made the last 16 at the European Masters earlier this season. Li meanwhile has only won one match all season, and that was his very first one, remaining winless since then.

In the other last 128 tie, Ricky Walden will be hoping to break a run of first round defeats, having failed to win a game since defeating Ben Woollaston in the last 32 of the English Open. His recent exits have hardly been against in-form players either losing to Jak Jones and Mark Joyce so he really seems to be struggling and sits 48th on the Grand Prix list. His opponent is Scott Donaldson who is under pressure on the end-of-season list sitting 62nd, but that is not because of a bad season this campaign. He has only suffered two last 128 exits in this campaign and is ahead of Walden at 41st on the Grand Prix list, with a best finish of the last 16 in the China Championship. I would expect him to beat an out of sorts Walden and then overcome his fellow Scot Muir or indeed Li Yuan in the last 64. 

Predicted qualifier: Scott Donaldson

Qualifying Section 32 

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Andrew Higginson Vs John Astley 
Mark Selby Vs Billy Castle

The final section is where we find the world number one Mark Selby. After taking the Scottish Open off and losing in the last 128 at the UK Championships it has been a quiet couple of weeks for Selby so he should be raring to again here. The 2015 German Masters champion will start his campaign against Billy Castle, who upset Stephen Maguire at the Scottish Open last week, though that was only the third event where he has gone beyond round one all season and it is tough to seeing him beating the world's best player in this one. Selby looked in good form in Northern Ireland where he lost in the last four, so his UK first round loss was a massive shock to everyone, including Selby.

Andrew Higginson takes on John Astley in the other last 128 tie in this section, with Astley coming into this after just two wins all season long. In all he has been winless since the International Championship qualifiers and is at 103 on the Grand Prix list. Higginson has plodded along once more this season, with a last 16 run in Northern Ireland his best of the season as he sits 55th on the Grand Prix list. Overall, Higginson should be beating Astley though he has suffered four last 128 exits this season, but Selby would have to be well below his best if he ends up failing to qualify. 

Predicted qualifier: Mark Selby


To watch some of the qualifiers throughout the week, two tables in each session will be broadcast on the Eurosport Player. All matches during the qualifying section are played over the best-of-9 frames. First round winners are guaranteed £2,250 with money increasing to £3,000 for those that make the last 32 in Berlin. 

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