Monday, 28 January 2019

German Masters Preview

On Wednesday, 32 players will kick off a fantastic five days of snooker at one of the most highly rated venues on the circuit, as the German Masters gets underway at the Tempodrome in Berlin.

World Champion Mark Williams will be defending the title that he won last year with a convincing victory in the final against Graeme Dott. The title was Williams' second of the season and was another major confidence boost ahead of his successful World Championship campaign.

The notable absentees from Berlin this year are UK Championship finalists Mark Allen and Ronnie O'Sullivan who chose not to enter December's qualifiers, while all of Luca Brecel, Anthony McGill, Marco Fu and former champions Ali Carter, Anthony Hamilton and Martin Gould failed to get through the two qualifying rounds held in Barnsley.

The absence of these former winners means that defending champion Williams is joined by Mark Selby and Ding Junhui as the only former champions out of the 32 hopefuls.

There is also a tournament within the event this week as the final 32 qualifiers for next week's World Grand Prix will be confirmed. Out of this week's 32, 12 could still play there way into the field, though only four of those could do so without making Sunday's final and each would need to make at least the quarter-finals.

The man who has the most cause for concern is Gary Wilson, who is 32nd in the provisional WGP rankings and failed to qualify for Berlin, while 33rd placed Zhou Yuelong and 34th placed Robert Milkins have both made it through to the Tempodrome and would overtake Wilson if they reached the last eight.

Paul Hunter Classic finalist Peter Ebdon still has a chance but would need to make at least the semi-finals and he takes on joint 30th placed Shaun Murphy in the last 32. Victory there for Murphy would separate him from Fu, who has his destiny out of his hands this week. Ricky Walden is the only other player who can theoretically qualify for the WGP without making the final, though he like Ebdon needs at least a semi-final appearance and opens up his campaign against world number one Mark Selby.

Murphy and Fu though are £6,000 clear of 33rd placed Zhou and a further £2,400 clear of Milkins, while joint 28th placed Ding Junhui and Yuan Sijun are a further £500 ahead of the two tied in 30th place, with both the Chinese players having made it through to Berlin. Barring an incredibly unlikely series of events, everyone else ahead of Ding and Yuan should be well and truly safe.

To better rate the chances of the above hopefuls, here is how the draw shapes up:

Quarter 1

Last 32 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Mark Williams Vs Zhou Yuelong
Joe Perry Vs Sam Baird
Shaun Murphy Vs Peter Ebdon
Kyren Wilson Vs Rory McLeod 

Straight away we find 33rd placed Zhou Yuelong with an uphill task on his hands against defending champion Mark Williams. However, when these two collided earlier in the season at the English Open, Zhou came out on top at the very same stage of the competition. Williams has not been in the greatest form in the last few months, losing out most recently from 3-1 up in the first round of the Masters. This came after early exits in his defence of the Northern Ireland Open, as well as the International Championship and the Champion of Champions. Zhou meanwhile is making his seventh successive appearance in the last 32 of a ranking event this season, going on to make the last 16 at the first two Home Nations events. Without setting the world alight he has added a greater consistency to his game that was not there as much a season ago and there's a huge incentive for him as he takes on Williams here, with the confidence of the Crawley victory from October.

Shaun Murphy's odd season continued with a 6-2 first round loss to Barry Hawkins in the Masters. He came into that after a confidence boosting couple of weeks that saw him making seven centuries in the two matches to qualify for Berlin, as well as a run to the Scottish Open final, which left expectations a lot higher than what was delivered at the Ally Pally. Prior to Glasgow, it had been an abysmal season for Murphy who was outside of the top 60 in the one-season rankings at one stage. He does have a reasonable record at this event, making the semi-finals last year and the final back in 2015 but in both of those seasons he was in much better form than he is presently. First round opposition in the shape of Peter Ebdon could prove very tough, with their last four meetings being shared 2-2 and Ebdon reaching a final in Germany earlier this season.

Kyren Wilson will be disappointed with his Masters effort also, missing key chances on the way to falling 5-0 down against Judd Trump and ultimately losing 6-2 in the first round there. Should both he and Murphy come through their opening ties in Berlin, they would meet again at the last 16 stage, having done so in Glasgow, with Murphy winning a great contest 4-3. Prior to that Wilson also suffered a heavy loss in the UK Championship quarter-finals, but he has had success in Germany this season winning the Paul Hunter Classic in August and if he were to reach the last 16 he could also face a repeat of that final, if Ebdon overcomes Murphy. All of this does depend on the opening round tie against Rory McLeod and while many will right McLeod off here completely he is capable of causing the upset and is at a point where he needs victories to retain his tour card for next season. Wilson always looks like a contender to be at the latter stages of tournaments, but whether he wins enough to be considered a major contender week after week is an entirely different topic.

Joe Perry is a player that can be considered a serious dark horse this week in my opinion. In round one he takes on Sam Baird in what is a tasty draw, with Baird reaching his first ranking quarter-final at the Scottish Open recently. Perry though is the experienced man and you would have to back him in that one after a solid season. A finalist at the European Masters and a quarter-finalist at the UK Championships, where he may be disappointed not to reach the semi-finals, all leave Perry 11th on the World Grand Prix list and only a small amount behind Jimmy Robertson, who beat Perry in the European Masters final. After a slightly quieter couple of seasons, Perry also sits 17th on the provisional Crucible rankings so has an excellent opportunity to avoid going through the qualifiers, especially given the fact he is also in a strong position to go on and qualify for the Players Championship. All of these things give greater incentive and inspiration to Perry to go on further runs in the second half of the season and looking at the draw for this week, with a couple of vulnerable players in this section, it seems like a great opportunity for Perry to pounce.

Best of the rest: Kyren Wilson
Quarter choice: Joe Perry

Quarter 2

Last 32 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Barry Hawkins Vs Robert Milkins
Stephen Maguire Vs Michael Georgiou
Yan Bingtao Vs Matthew Stevens
Judd Trump Vs Li Hang

Robert Milkins is in 34th position on the Grand Prix list and takes on Barry Hawkins needing a victory in this match and in a probable last 16 encounter with Stephen Maguire to put himself into the Grand Prix, if Zhou fails to make the last eight. In all likelihood Hawkins will just be slightly too strong for Milkins. The Gloucester man has put himself in the Grand Prix mix courtesy of last 16 runs in the English Open and the World Open. Hawkins has also won their last two meetings, with Milkins two wins over Hawkins outside of the Championship League coming way back in 2003, so he has a bit to overturn if he is to keep his Cheltenham hopes alive.

Stephen Maguire has had a decent season, even if it has been a little inconsistent. He is nicely secured of his Grand Prix place for next week and appeared at the Masters again recently, earning his way back there with two semi-finals this season at the Riga Masters and English Open as well as a quarter-final appearance at the UK Championship. If he could get close to the form he found in the second half of his match with Mark Williams in York then he certainly would not be nearing the six-year anniversary of his last ranking title win. At this tournament he has a reasonable record, making two quarter-finals, a semi-final and reaching the final in 2012 from the seven times he has qualified for Berlin. He will be a big favourite in round one against Michael Georgiou who has not had the greatest season, but from there a potential last 16 contest with Barry Hawkins would be a very tight call on paper and with the Masters champion also in this quarter, it will be a tough one for Maguire to win.

Judd Trump is the tournament favourite this week after his excellent Masters victory last weekend. Out of his four wins against Kyren Wilson, Mark Selby, Neil Robertson and Ronnie O'Sullivan, three of those were very comfortable victories and he produced the sort of clinical front running that he produces so often against the lower-ranked players to produce so many whitewash wins. The main question for the next couple of tournaments will be whether Trump is ready to kick-on straight away and contend for this tournament so soon after his Masters victory, or whether he will still be a little in celebration mode. This time last year, new Masters champion Mark Allen was defeated in round one to lower ranked opposition, while in 2015 the new Masters champion Shaun Murphy made it all the way to the final and was riding high on confidence. I have to say looking at the draw that Trump is much more likely to go on and reach the final than to lose early on and his biggest threat would come from a quarter-final with either Maguire or Hawkins.

Barry Hawkins has had a solid season without setting the world alight, but we are certainly now coming into the stage of the campaign where his form usually peaks, between February and April. Last year he made the Welsh Open final, while a year earlier he collected the World Grand Prix title in the month of February. He started this season strongly with a final in the Shanghai Masters, semi-final at the World Open and a quarter-final at the China Championship and well over half of his season's ranking prize money was won prior to the European Masters in October. His record in Berlin may also not be the greatest, having only gone beyond round two in two of his seven appearances at the Tempodrome, which does not go along with his usual February flourish. In this quarter you feel as though he could quietly go about his business to reach the quarter-finals before things hot up, but if Trump does take his intensity down for a week or two after his Masters triumph, Hawkins is certainly the next best candidate to make the semi-finals and beyond.  

Best of the rest: Judd Trump
Quarter choice: Barry Hawkins

Quarter 3

Last 32 draw: (Picks in bold) 

John Higgins Vs Yuan Sijun
Jack Lisowski Vs Duane Jones
Ryan Day Vs Xiao Guodong
Ding Junhui Vs Fergal O'Brien 

John Higgins has got another interesting challenge facing him in Berlin as he looks to regain his form. Barring a final appearance at the China Championship, where he admits he was still playing quite poorly, it has been a bad time for Higgins who has admitted problems finding motivation. He just edged out Chris Wakelin 5-4 in the second qualifying match to make sure of his spot in the 32 for this week. Prior to that, he suffered a surprise last 16 loss in his home event, as well as a last 64 in the UK Championship, first round exits in the Northern Ireland Open and International Championship and his year started with a tough 6-5 loss in the first round of the Masters against Ryan Day. Higgins first round opponent this week is the extremely talented Yuan Sijun who is not frightened of taking on the best players. Yuan is currently in position to qualify for the WGP as mentioned in the intro and has beaten the likes of Mark Allen, Kyren Wilson as well as beating Ding Junhui on the way to the China Championship quarter-finals. All things considered, you have to say that Yuan has a great chance of causing another upset here.

Ryan Day could be a dark horse this week and go slightly under the radar in the draw. His first round opponent Xiao Guodong is someone he has played twice, with Xiao winning 10-4 in the 2017 World Championships, while Day won their other meeting in Berlin five years ago. Xiao's recent Championship League outing was not successful though as he managed only one win from his six Round Robin games. Day meanwhile overcame Higgins in round one of the Masters before pushing Ronnie O'Sullivan with some good play in the first half of their quarter-final. In many ways it has been a tale of quarter-finals for the Welshman this season, making two non-ranking quarter-finals at the Masters and Shanghai Masters, as well as four ranking quarter-finals, at the European Masters as well as the opening three Home Nations events. Having not gone beyond that stage in the 2018/2019 campaign it is becoming a bit of an unwanted trait and makes it tough to say he will win this quarter, especially with the quality in the section.

Jack Lisowski is someone I thought would win a ranking event this season, especially after he made the final of the season opening Riga Masters. He followed that up by making the World Open quarter-finals before losing from 3-0 up there when a win may have teed up that maiden title, before similar happened at the Paul Hunter Classic. Another tight quarter-final went against him at the European Masters, and he fell just short against Neil Robertson in the International Championship semi-finals. He is yet to go beyond the last 16 of an event since then but this week looks like a big opportunity for him to put that right. The German Masters does have previous for creating first time ranking winners, with both Martin Gould and Anthony Hamilton achieving theirs in 2016 and 2017 respectively, which may prove a good omen for someone like Lisowski this week. He will also have a slight irk about his poor Masters debut, providing him some extra fire and inspiration in Berlin, while the draw does nothing to play down his chances of at least making the quarter-finals.

2014 champion Ding Junhui is my third quarter selection though, having seen something of an improvement in what was by far his best display of the season at the recent Masters. After a quiet start to the season where he only played three ranking events prior to the UK Championship, he has made three last 16 appearances in a row in ranking events, to play his way into the Grand Prix mix and looks committed to playing more in the second half of the season. As well as competing here again after missing out in previous years, he has committed to play in group 7 of the Championship League in March. Perhaps he feels he needs to put in as much playing time as possible prior to another bid at becoming China's first World Snooker Champion at the end of the season. Against Lisowski at the Masters he was clinical if not at his best and he showed a lot of grit and fight to come through against Luca Brecel. Then against Ronnie O'Sullivan he put a lot of pressure on from 4-0 down and came close to a maximum break, which may have slightly upset his focus in the last couple of frames. You would firmly expect him to beat Fergal O'Brien in round playing as he did in London, before a potential banana skin against nemesis Ryan Day, who has won four of their last five major meetings. Should he get over that hurdle then I would expect him to go from strength to strength and be a serious title contender in Berlin. 

Best of the rest: Jack Lisowski
Quarter choice: Ding Junhui

Quarter 4

Last 32 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Neil Robertson Vs Kurt Maflin
Stuart Bingham Vs Jimmy Robertson
David Gilbert Vs Ben Woollaston
Mark Selby Vs Ricky Walden

David Gilbert is a potential dark horse for this week. He started the season by narrowly missing out on his first ranking title at the World Open and his since made a quarter-final at the Northern Ireland Open and the last 16 of the International Championship. Recently at the Championship League, he won his opening five games in group 5, before making the 147th 147 break in his sixth match. That sort of form certainly makes him favourite against Ben Woollaston in round one and could see him trouble Mark Selby in the last 16 should the pair both get through. At eighth on this season's money list he is not to be underestimated, and as mentioned earlier with Lisowski, the German Masters has produced a couple of first time ranking winners in recent years. If his form from group 5 in the Championship League transfers to Berlin he could certainly be in the running.

Mark Selby has had a very up and down 2018/2019 season so far. The best demonstration of that is how he played in his two matches at the recent Masters. Against Maguire he was in sublime form making three centuries and two further breaks in the 90's, while against Judd Trump in the quarters he was nowhere near that form and was at less than 80% pot success as Trump built his 5-1 lead. Another example of the up and down form would be as Selby narrowly missed out on the final of the Northern Ireland Open, losing to Ronnie O'Sullivan on the final black. At the next event, the UK Championships in York, he lost 6-3 in round one to amateur James Cahill in one of the biggest UK Championship upsets. His China Championship title at the start of the season means he is third on the WGP list and if he has a good week he could walk away with this title easily, but the above examples show that recently he has been a very tough player to predict. His recent head-to-head with first round opponent Ricky Walden has been pretty even, though Walden is not in the best form this season and needs at least a semi-final here to get into the Grand Prix. That may give Walden the extra spark to go on and beat Selby but at the moment both players are very difficult to predict.

Stuart Bingham is another contender in this quarter of the draw and will hoping to bounce back from first round exits at the Masters and Scottish Open with a big run here. Bingham only edged past Chen Feilong 5-4 in the last 128 qualifier for this event as well, though his start to the season has been a good one leaving him in a healthy ninth position on the WGP list. That is mainly thanks to his storming run to the UK Championship semi-finals and the English Open title he picked up two months earlier. In between all of that though there have been further early exits, including a last 128 loss in Northern Ireland and a last 64 defeat at the International Championship, making him another tough player to predict. On top of that, he plays European Masters champion Jimmy Robertson in round one who is just a place below him on the season's rankings. Jimmy may have gone slightly quiet since that Lommel triumph but you also have to consider how long that win must have taken to sink in. He can certainly trouble Bingham in round one here, and was a quarter-finalist at this event 12 months ago - his first ranking quarter-final - so he will have good memories of the event.

Neil Robertson is my final quarter choice for the German Masters however. The Australian is in fifth place on the WGP list so has no fears this week on that front and his form this season is probably as good as it has been for three or four years. He started the season with victory at the Riga Masters and has since made the International Championship final, as well as being the closest man to defeating Trump in the Masters, at the semi-final stage. Mark Allen has been his nemesis this season (beating him in the International final, Champion of Champions quarter-finals and UK Championship last 16) and again he has no fears from him this week after his non-entry in this event. His first round opponent Kurt Maflin is always capable of pulling off an upset on his day, in fact in their last meeting Robertson came back from 3-0 down to beat him 4-3 and four of their previous six meetings have finished in deciding frames. For me, Robertson is someone I would fancy for another tournament win before this season is over and it may well be this week. 

Best of the rest: David Gilbert
Quarter choice: Neil Robertson

Tournament winner selection: Ding Junhui 


The tournament will be covered in full on Eurosport TV and the Eurosport Player and will have the same format as previous. The last 32, last 16 and quarter-finals will be played over the best-of-9 frames, with the last 16 matches spread over Thursday night and Friday afternoon before the famous quarter-finals night on Friday which has produced much drama over the years. The semi-finals will be played over the best-of-11 frames on Saturday before Sunday's best-of-17 frame final, where the winner will receive £80,000. 

No comments:

Post a Comment