Friday, 11 January 2019

THE BIG MASTERS PREVIEW

The snooker year of 2019 kicks into top gear this week as the top 16 players on the world ranking list descend on London's Alexandra Palace for the Masters. The year's first triple crown event is one packed full of worthy contenders.

The season's first triple crown title went to Ronnie O'Sullivan as he defeated Mark Allen to win the UK Championships in December, and it is Allen that is the defending champion in the capital after his epic victory against Kyren Wilson in the final 12 months ago.

Allen and O'Sullivan are joined by a further 6 former Masters champions, while only one of the 16 players in Jack Lisowski is making his first appearance in the event, so there is big tournament winning experience everywhere you look.

As well as Lisowski breaking into the top 16, Stephen Maguire is back where he belongs, qualifying for the Masters again after a two year absence. Stuart Bingham is also back after being suspended for this event last year, while Neil Robertson was also absent 12 months ago after dropping out of the top 16 for the most important week of the year (before immediately retaking his place with a win in Scotland).

Those four replace Anthony McGill, Marco Fu, Ali Carter and Liang Wenbo in the four changes to the line-up from 2018. Plenty of drama can be expected once again and some top quality snooker from the 16 best players that the game has to offer.

Quarter 1 

First round draw: (Picks in bold)

Mark Allen Vs Luca Brecel (Sunday 13 January - 1pm)
Ding Junhui Vs Jack Lisowski (Monday 14 January - 7pm)

Defending champion Mark Allen opens up the tournament on Sunday afternoon with a repeat of the match that got him underway 12 months ago, as he takes on Luca Brecel. The Belgian fell down 6-3 on that occasion and his form has gotten progressively worse from that point on as he suffered a torrid 2018, failing to make a single world ranking event quarter-final. For Brecel, who is winless from four previous outings against Allen, winning this one would be a fantastic result, while the Northern Irishman will have serious aspirations of defending his title. Marches to victory at the International Championship and the recent Scottish Open will have him full of confidence, while Ronnie O'Sullivan was the only man who could stop him in York, as Allen had to settle for second prize at the UK Championship.

The other match in this top quarter sees debutant Jack Lisowski take on 2011 Masters champion Ding Junhui. That opening line may give you false ideas about how this match may go, but the season Lisowski has had to rise into the top 16, coupled with Ding's Masters record since the tournament moved to the Alexandra Palace in 2012 tell an entirely different tale. This will be Ding's eighth Masters in all since he lifted the illustrious trophy and he has managed just one match win in that time. Interestingly, he mentioned after a loss to Shaun Murphy in 2014 that he perhaps did not put enough work in over Christmas in order to give the tournament a good enough go and that quote has stood out ever since. Put that alongside a heavily reduced schedule this season since the birth of his first child and a fairly average season altogether and it is hard to see him as a firm contender this week. Lisowski though has a great chance in this match. He's been excellent this season, making his first ranking final in the season's opening event in Riga, before making the semi-finals of the International Championship and generally looking altogether more consistent than he ever has. His dedication has shone at the start of the 2019, lining up in group one of the Championship League (on New Year's Day) making the final of that group before winning group two.

All things considered, Allen is certainly the form man of this section while Lisowski certainly has an outside chance as long as he does not suffer any debutant nerves early on against Ding. 

Quarter choice: Mark Allen

Quarter 2

First round draw: (Picks in bold) 

John Higgins Vs Ryan Day (Sunday 13 January - 7pm)
Ronnie O'Sullivan Vs Stuart Bingham (Monday 14 January 1pm)

The opening game in this quarter between John Higgins and Ryan Day looks like a really tight affair and one that could hang on a knife edge. In the head-to-head, Higgins may lead the way overall but their last four meetings have been shared, with both of the last two going to deciding frames (Day winning 6-5 in Shanghai and Higgins 4-3 in Coventry). They did meet in the quarter-finals of this event 12 months ago when Higgins ran out 6-1 but his form this season does not point towards a repeat scoreline here. Early exits at the UK and International Championship are the stand out disappointments for a player that has spoken about retirement and losing his motivation with the game, after a second successive World Final defeat last May. Day has hardly set the world alight this season either, with a string of quarter-finals that could have become much more. The question here is whether either player turns up on the day. Day has been known to blow hot and cold at the best of times, while Higgins self-proclaimed lack of motivation may have resulted in a lack of practice time over the Christmas period.

Then on Monday afternoon, it is over to Masters legend Ronnie O'Sullivan and former world champion Stuart Bingham. Overall, the pair have met 17 times, though Bingham has only registered three victories in that time. One of those was the 2015 world quarter-final that inspired Bingham to his world title, though the three meetings since have all gone in O'Sullivan's favour. One of those was a semi-final at this event in 2016 which Ronnie won 6-3, while the other two were this season in Shanghai (6-2 O'Sullivan) and Coventry (4-2 O'Sullivan). Bingham may have had a strong season winning the English Open and making the UK Championship semi-finals, but O'Sullivan has been at the latter stages in every tournament he has played in. A winner at the Shanghai Masters, semi-finalist in the English Open, winner again at the Champion of Champions, finalist in Northern Ireland and then winning the UK Championship. A reduced schedule is helping him to contend in all the big events and helping him to stay motivated and he will be hungry for yet more Masters glory in front of his home fans.

In all, Bingham will most likely fall short against O'Sullivan, while either Higgins or Day would massively have to up their form from the first half of the season in order to get anywhere near him in the quarter-final. O'Sullivan is a firm favourite to lift the trophy next Sunday and the way he has played this season, it is hard to go against that. 

Quarter choice: Ronnie O'Sullivan

Quarter 3

First round draw: (Picks in bold) 

Mark Selby Vs Stephen Maguire (Wednesday 16 January - 7pm)
Judd Trump Vs Kyren Wilson (Wednesday 16 January - 1pm)

Three-time Masters champion and world number one Mark Selby features in the last of the first round matches on Wednesday evening taking on Stephen Maguire. Selby has not had the brightest start to the season in some peoples eyes, though he has won a big Chinese title in the early part of the season. The disappointment for him will come from another early York exit, this time at the hands of James Cahill in the last 128 round. One thing he does have is a slight edge against Maguire in the head-to-head, as well as winning their two previous matches in this event back in 2008 and 2010. Maguire's comeback in the last 16 of the UK Championship against Mark Williams showed that he can still produce the goods on the big stage, but Selby has all the tools to frustrate the hotheaded Scotsman. Given that he has not gone beyond the quarters since 2014, it would be easy to forget that Selby made the final of this event in five of his first seven attempts, while Maguire himself has lost in the first round here in four of his last six appearances. Unless Selby is really off his game in this one, you have to think that Maguire will need to be at his very best to come through.

The other tie in this third quarter is the one that has caught everyone's eye given their track record. The needle between Judd Trump and Kyren Wilson has really gone up a notch in recent months and both will be giving everything they've got to put the other in their place. Trump overcame Wilson twice in the recent Championship League groups, but without a big match atmosphere and much more on the line it is hard to use that as any kind of guide whatsoever. When it has mattered, Wilson has won the last four non-Championship League meetings against Trump, 6-1 in the Champion of Champions, 6-2 in the Shanghai Masters, 4-2 in the Romanian Masters and of course 6-5 from 5-2 down in the Masters semi-final last year. In all that means he has won 20 of their last 25 frames played outside of the Championship League and one of the matches in their head-to-head that may be forgotten is the 2015 Shanghai Masters final which Wilson won 10-9, another massive match where Wilson has got the better of Trump.

The danger for both players given the animosity between them is that they end up trying too hard, fail to produce their best which could result in a scrappy encounter or one player having a runaway win, or indeed taking so much out of themselves that they scupper their chances of going on and winning the title. In all honesty, this feels like a much bigger match for Trump than it does for Wilson. The left-hander has a few points to prove. First off he needs to beat Wilson in a big match because the record between them does not make for pretty reading. Then there is the much bigger task of having a big run in a triple crown event. This is his eighth Masters in a row and it is somewhat surprising that is yet to appear in the final, because on paper it is an event that should suit him down to the ground. He has had three semi-final appearances, but at the same time he has had three first round exits in the last five years at the Palace. This will also be his 22nd triple crown event since winning the 2011 UK Championships and he has only been in one final (the 2014 UK Championship) out of the previous 21, another huge surprise.

In all, Selby's Masters record is the stand out of those in this quarter and he will be hungry for a big run after the disappointment of the UK Championship. If Trump and Wilson's match is as much of a tight battle as anticipated, then Selby could be the benefactor if the winner of that clash shows any mental fatigue in the quarter-final. 

Quarter choice: Mark Selby

Quarter 4

First round draw: (Picks in bold) 

Barry Hawkins Vs Shaun Murphy (Tuesday 15 January - 7pm)
Mark Williams Vs Neil Robertson (Tuesday 15 January - 1pm)

The fourth and final quarter of the draw is probably one of the tightest to call. Starting with 2015 Masters champion Shaun Murphy's match up with 2016 runner-up Barry Hawkins, this is a really tough one to call. The pair actually met in round one here in 2017 with Murphy having a real off day in a 6-1 loss. Taking the Championship League and Snooker Shoot-Out out of the equation, that is one of Hawkins two wins against Murphy, from 11 previous attempts. The other may also have been a big match in the 2013 UK Championship, but Murphy won their very biggest tie in the 2015 World Championship semi-finals by a wide margin.
Their seasons have both been interesting ones. Murphy's has been stacked with early exits, including in the last 128 of the UK and International Championships, but things have looked up in recent times. Back with coach Chris Henry, who aided him in winning this title four years, he made the final of the Scottish Open with wins over Kyren Wilson and Judd Trump before a narrow loss to Mark Allen. Following that he won both of his German Masters qualifiers just before Christmas, making seven centuries in ten frames won. If that sort of form continues in London then he is major title contender, make no mistake. As for Hawkins, he was solid as a rock at the start of the season, making the Shanghai Masters final and having some other good results in China in the early part of the season. In recent times though he has suffered some early exits, including first round losses in both the Northern Ireland and Scottish Opens. It is hard to see this match being anything over than close, but if his form since getting back with Chris Henry continues, Murphy is a huge threat.

Then we have another epic battle lined up between world champion Mark Williams and 2012 Masters champion Neil Robertson. In the head-to-head Robertson has a slight edge and has won their two previous Masters match-ups in 2007 and on the road to victory in 2012. Robertson has a bit of a love affair with the Alexandra Palace. His victory year in 2012 was the first at the new venue and he has thrived since, making two further finals and never losing in the first round in the six times he has qualified for the Masters at this venue. For Williams, it is now 16 years since he last won this prestigious title and he has only appeared in one Masters semi-final since then. If their recent Masters records differ, then so to has their form this season. Williams may have won the World Open early on in the season, but since then he has not made a ranking quarter-final, losing in the last 16 of the UK Championships, the first round of the Champion of Champions and looking a little out of sorts at times, as his World Championship party has gone on a little too long. Robertson meanwhile has been focused from ball one, winning the Riga Masters and making the International Championship final. His failure to qualify for this event last year spurred him on to win the 2017 Scottish Open and he has looked more like the player we know with each passing event. A last 16 exit in the UK Championship and a quarter-final loss in another big event at the Champion of Champions both came at the hands of Mark Allen, who also beat him in that International final. With Allen safely in the opposing half of the draw this week, Robertson could be a serious title contender.

In all though, the second half of this season could be a big one for Murphy after his run to the final in Scotland. The confidence gained there will be re-enforced by having Chris Henry back by his side and that makes him a real dark horse for this title. 

Quarter choice: Shaun Murphy

Tournament winner selection: Ronnie O'Sullivan

For an alternative build-up to the Masters, it is worth listening to the podcast produced by the Racing Post, featuring the thoughts of their snooker expert Dave Clark who is also worth giving a follow on Twitter. You can listen to that in full (at just under the half hour in length) by clicking here.

As always, the first three rounds up to and including the semi-finals will be played over the best-of-11 frames at Alexandra Palace ahead of the best-of-19 frame showpiece final on January 20, where the winner will take home the Paul Hunter trophy and the £200,000 first prize. 

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