The Shoot-Out is the biggest lottery in snooker. 1 frame matches over 10 minutes with a shot clock, ball in hand for any fouls and 128 contenders most of which will fancy their chances of victory. After all, any of the players on the tour can win a frame against any of the other players.
Last year, Michael Georgiou won the title to claim his first ranking event win despite being outside of the top 64 when he stormed to glory in dramatic fashion in the final over Graeme Dott.
Past winners include Nigel Bond, Barry Hawkins, Martin Gould, Dominic Dale, Michael White, Robin Hull and Anthony McGill as well as defending champion Georgiou. Incidentally, Hull has withdrawn from the competition this year.
The other aspect that makes this tournament such a lottery is the lack of high ranked players that enter. Only 6 of the provisional top 17 in the world rankings have entered this year's competition, so many of the 'usual suspects' will not be in attendance this weekend in Watford.
So with winners so tough to pick, in the last two years I have attempted to pick out some trends of past winners and see which players in this year's competition fit the bill based on those trends:
1. No-one has ever won the Shoot-Out whilst being ranked inside the top 16
Anthony McGill was just outside of the top 16 when he won two years ago, while last year's winner Michael Georgiou was well outside of that mark when he won so this trend is still standing. Inside the top 16 in the up to date world rankings and entered for this tournament are: Kyren Wilson, Barry Hawkins, Shaun Murphy, Stuart Bingham, Luca Brecel and David Gilbert - ruling them out based on this trend.
2. No Shoot Out winner has ever won it before.
This additionally takes out the likes of Nigel Bond, Martin Gould, Dominic Dale, Michael White, Anthony McGill and Michael Georgiou.
3. The furthest a Shoot Out winner has ever gone in the competition prior to the year they won is the Quarter-Finals.
Both 2014 winner Dominic Dale and 2013 winner Martin Gould made the quarter-finals in 2012 but no Shoot Out winner has ever been further than that point in any year prior to victory.
So, I have removed from the list all former runners-up and anyone that's ever been in a Shoot-Out semi-final. The players that has taken out are: Graeme Dott, Martin O'Donnell, Mark Davis, Xiao Guodong, Andy Hicks, Joe Swail, Michael Holt, Tom Ford and Robert Milkins.
4. Since the inaugural event in 2011, only Robin Hull though in 2016 won the tournament on his debut.
So while too much prior success in the event does not bode well, neither does being a Shoot-Out novice. Previous experience to the difference in format and of course the shot clock is desireable. So the debutants for this season that are taken out of the equation are: Liam James Davies, Chen Feilong, Michael Judge, Joe O'Connor, Lu Ning, Harvey Chandler, Jamie Clarke, Jordan Brown, Luke Simmonds, Zhang Jiankang, Jamie O'Neill, Ben Mertens, Andy Lee, Fan Zhengyi, Simon Lichtenberg, Luo Honghao and various other amateur invites.
5. Prior to Georgiou winning last year, each previous Shoot Out winner had made 100 career centuries (According to CueTracker)
Shoot Out winners then generally appear to be people either to have the experience of playing long enough to make 100 centuries, or that they are heavy scorers. On this occasion we lose the likes of: Mark Joyce, Thepchaiya Un-Nooh, Paul Davison, Rory McLeod, Sam Baird, Li Hang, Daniel Wells, Zhang Anda, Liam Highfield, Stuart Carrington, Mike Dunn, Zhou Yuelong, Noppon Saengkham, Peter Lines, Zhao Xintong, Sam Craigie, Yan Bingtao and many more
6. While only Nigel Bond, Dominic Dale and Anthony McGill out of the six previous Shoot-Out winners had won a ranking event, each of the last five winners prior to Georgiou in 2018, had made at least the quarter-finals of a full ranking event within the two years prior to victory. 2012 winner Hawkins had made semi-finals in PTC events.
This is an interesting one, and may surprise a few with some of the previous winners there have been in the Shoot Out. However, they all certainly know how to get towards the latter stages of events. This actually eliminates James Wattana, Gerard Greene, Matthew Selt, Jimmy White, Rod Lawler
and Alan McManus. 17 players are left on the list.
7. Despite no player ever being in the top 16 at the precise time of their win, only Robin Hull and Michael Georgiou were lower than 39 in the world rankings at the start of the season in which they won the Shoot Out, and lower than 40 at the end of that season.
Based on this trend, I have removed all players that started the 2017/2018 ranked lower than 40. This takes out Mark Davis, Kurt Maflin, Matthew Stevens, Fergal O'Brien, Andrew Higginson, Peter Ebdon, Ken Doherty, Tian Pengfei and Alfie Burden.
*Mark Davis is currently 35th in the rankings, while Matthew Stevens is 41st in the current rankings after performances this season so would both be on course to finish inside the top 40 at the end of the season.
That leaves the following players on the list of potential winners based on the above trends:
- Ricky Walden
- Gary Wilson
- Jimmy Robertson
- Joe Perry
- Mark King
- Ali Carter
- Ben Woollaston
- Anthony Hamilton
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