The news from qualifying is that the 16 qualifiers to join the top 16 seeds on the biggest stage of them all are Robert Milkins, Graeme Dott, Ryan Day, Mark Davis, Alan McManus, Anthony McGill, Matt Selt, Jimmy Robertson, Kurt Maflin, Jamie Jones, Matthew Stevens, Robbie Williams, Robin Hull, Stuart Carrington, Craig Steadman and Zhang Anda who came through the three qualifying matches to get here. Of those, Anthony McGill, Kurt Maflin, Stuart Carrington and Craig Steadman are making their Crucible debuts and each of those has an interesting draw in the opening round.
Mark Selby obviously kicks off proceedings on Table one on Saturday morning, while i'll be at the Crucible watching both sessions of Marco Fu's match with Jimmy Robertson on Saturday and Sunday morning along with the first session of the all-Scottish tie between Maguire and McGill on Saturday afternoon before watching another Scottish qualifier in Graeme Dott play his first session with (one of my favourite players to watch it has to be said) Ricky Walden.
What do I fancy for this years World Championship? First things first I'm going to stick my neck on the line and say that there will be a maximum 147 break, with the last Crucible maximum being in 2012, but with them being more regular on tour I think we'll see one this year. Secondly, looking at the first round draw I can see there being plenty of close matches and overall, a similar amount of deciding frame finishes to last year where there was 5. If conditions are good plenty of centuries will be fired in, but not a record breaking amount in my opinion. Also, I fancy around 4 or 5 qualifiers winning in the opening round which again is the usual amount in recent years at the World Championships.
Betfred are back as sponsors for this year and I've already been informed of the difference with some of the specials they've offered in their shops this year, as they did in 2012 when they were last sponsors. It seems from some of the early pictures of the setting up taking place also that the Crucible carpet this year is red, which is something I know a lot of fans wonder about in the days leading up to the tournament. Meanwhile, World Snookers attempts to host the draw (and tweet it as it happened) on the YouTube channel seemed to fail, although I only found this out afterwards having had the draw text to me while I was away from the house.
So, Without further ado, here's how the draw looks for the first round proper at the Crucible theatre along with my in-depth:
Quarter 1
Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Mark Selby Vs Kurt Maflin
Stephen Maguire Vs Anthony McGill
Joe Perry Vs Zhang Anda
Shaun Murphy Vs Robin Hull
In the top quarter of the draw we have the defending champion Mark Selby taking on recent China Open semi finalist Kurt Maflin, while the defending Masters champion Shaun Murphy has also landed in this quarter of the draw and will play Robin Hull who has secured his tour place for another year at least after qualifying this year. Lisbon Open Champion Stephen Maguire takes on a fellow Scot in UK quarter-finalist Anthony McGill, while Players Champion Joe Perry plays the lowest seeded player in the event in China's Zhang Anda.
Stephen Maguire was in good form in the middle of the season winning the Lisbon Open, making the UK semi-finals and the last 4 at the German Masters, however the last month has seen him go slightly off the boil. The Players Championship, World Grand Prix and China Open all saw Last 16 exits which wouldn't have been pleasing for him after he skipped the Indian Open to come into those three particular events fresh and set himself up nicely for the World's. Something that's interesting to pick out for Stephen is that he hasn't actually won a match at the World's since making the semi-finals in 2012 after losses to Poomjaeng and Day in the first round in 2013 and 2014. In the opening round Maguire faces a very tough test against his fellow countryman Anthony McGill. Anthony has consistently pushed the top players all the way whenever he's come up against them since a confidence boosting run to the UK quarter-finals. He is one of the best young players in the game presently and I think he has a pretty strong all-round game with a strong head on his shoulders to go with that. He reminds me a lot of Alan McManus, which is a great compliment for a young Scottish player to be given. If McGill can settle quickly in the first session on his Crucible debut he'll be well in the match, and if he can get off to a fast start he'll have Maguire in trouble early on, and when that starts to happen he can lose it a bit if he hasn't settled and we could see some cue bangs.
Joe Perry had his crowning moment in Thailand last month as he won the Players Championship finals to secure his first full ranking title, after a very solid season that also saw him win an Asian Tour event and go well on the European Tour as well. Last year at the Crucible Joe was knocked out 13-11 in round two after leading O'Sullivan 11-9, but Joe did very little wrong and that match went down as one of my classics in 2014. He certainly has all of the experience to go all of the way at the World Championships, but you have to ask if he could sustain his usual quality for the full 17 days, as I feel like Joe would end up in a position where he could play a couple of consistent sessions in a match only for his opponent to come out and player a great session which he wouldn't have a response for, which is what happened against Ronnie last year. Joe's first round opponent is Zhang Anda who certainly had to do things the hard way in qualifying as he beat Liang Wenbo 10-9 in the final qualifying round, and Zhang is also the lowest ranked player left in the tournament. The problem I feel Zhang will have is that he still lacks experience at this level, and that he could keep up with Joe for the first session and a bit, but when it matters Perry will pull away to victory in my opinion.
Mark Selby has two so called "curses" to overcome if he is to win his second world title at the Crucible this year. The first is that no first time World Champion has managed to defend their title the next year, while the second is that, coming in as the China Open champion, no China Open champion has ever won the World Championships, while China has traditionally preceded the Crucible since it's return in 2005. However, Mark has the quality, experience and more importantly the mental strength to defy these jinxes and walk away with the title. He has admitted to feeling the pressure of carrying the title of World Champion around this season, but what first time champion hasn't? However, how many have come from having a poor season until February, yet still come to the Crucible with two ranking titles under their belts, as Selby has by winning in Beijing but also in Berlin at the German Masters? The number one reason Mark won the title last year, is that if he had a poor day or a poor session, he was able to dig in and stay in the match, come back the next day for the next session and take advantage. There aren't many players in the tournament that can do that, especially against the other top players in the game. Selby's defence begins against Norwegian Kurt Maflin who he played in the China Open semi-finals and beat 6-3 in the end. Kurt is a very dangerous player and Mark will know that coming into this match. Maflin will score heavily if he's on form and this is what he did in that semi-final. The key difference in that match was that Selby won the scrappy frames, and these are the frames that make the real difference in a match, and I think that will be the difference on Saturday.
Shaun Murphy comes into this tournament as the Masters champion, 10 years on from when he first burst onto the scene to win the world title. However, the thing for Shaun now is that he is playing the best snooker of his career right now and as a man in his early 30's like Selby is, you'd expect this from him. I think Shaun is as confident as he's ever been as well and this is the key as he seems to have settled down off of the table, having moved to Nottingham with his fiancée. Also, Shaun is working harder on the practice table than I think he ever has done and he has much more of an all-round game which it takes to win multiple titles, along with the superb ball striking that he has always possessed from all areas of the table. Even though he suffered a first round exit at the World Grand Prix, was knocked out at the Last 16 stage in Thailand and went out to Kurt Maflin in the China Open quarter's from 4-2 ahead, he's still striking the ball fine and didn't do much wrong in those last two defeats, and he'll be firing on all cylinders in Sheffield. The thing that will spur Shaun on is that is 10 years since his only world title and in the last two years he's had tough quarter-final defeats for differing reasons. In 2013 he lost a last 8 decider to Judd Trump before being thrashed 13-3 by Ronnie in the 2014 quarters. This year, Robin Hull is Shaun Murphy's first round opponent and he'll cause Shaun plenty of problems because he's a great player and seems to be close to the top of his game. They did meet at the UK Championships and Shaun on the day was striking the ball a bit better and he picked up some of the vital tactical frames, which he is getting a lot better at doing, and even though it will be a close run thing, I think Shaun will pass his first round test and that will strengthen him up nicely for the rest of the tournament.
Quarter Winner: Shaun Murphy
Quarter 2
Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Barry Hawkins Vs Matt Selt
Mark Allen Vs Ryan Day
Ali Carter Vs Alan McManus
Neil Robertson Vs Jamie Jones
The main men to pick out in this quarter are fourth seed and Masters finalist Neil Robertson who takes on 2012 Crucible quarter-finalist Jamie Jones. 2013 finalist Barry Hawkins plays Lisbon Open runner-up Matt Selt, while International Championship and Shanghai Masters runner-up of earlier in the season Mark Allen faces Welshman Ryan Day. 2012 finalist Ali Carter completes the seeds in this section and he'll play last years quarter-finalist Alan McManus.
Barry Hawkins has been struggling a lot in the second half of the season since his disastrous UK Championship Last 64 defeat to Nigel Bond from 5-0 up. Since then, Barry has really struggled and not been getting the results to he'd like because of the confidence hit that he has taken. At the China Open he started to play a little better and made the quarter-finals and that will give him a pick up and a much needed one ahead of the World Championships. His first round opponent this year is Matt Selt and he is one of the most improved players of this season and one that all of the seeds would want to have avoided in particular because of the results he's picked up. Matt will be full of confidence, especially with the beating handed out by him to Barry in the World Grand Prix, other a much shorter format. I don't think this match will be clean and free flowing, but it should go close and will be a test of bottle and character, especially for Barry given that somewhere in the back of his mind memories of that fateful York night against Bond will live on. Yet, you can also say that Hawkins has the memories of making the 2014 semi's and 2013 final.
Ali Carter has obviously had a rough ride since playing at the Crucible last year and he'll be glad to be back at such a great venue and playing at the World Championships. His seeding has been frozen at 13, and that is exactly what he needed when he was undergoing treatment for cancer. However, Ali has struggled really to get his foot back through the door at events since then and despite a couple of good victories he hasn't had a great run to really build up his confidence. One thing that will make him confident is his safe knowledge that he has reached two world finals and can complete well at the Crucible. However, Alan McManus is one of the toughest first round draws you could have and his game is always watertight, and you don't get anything for nothing against Alan which is why he got to the quarter-finals last year as a qualifier and he has the ability to do so again. I expect this to be a very tactical match and one that could certainly go either way, and right down to the wire too.
Mark Allen had a fantastic first half to the season, but has had some unfortunate results since then. he was playing superb on the way to finals in Chengdu and Shanghai and even made the Masters semi-finals before losing to the eventual champion. Deciding frame losses followed in the German Masters, World Grand Prix and the Welsh Open and all of those matches could've gone his way on another day so that is nothing for him to be downhearted about. His game is in good shape and he always comes up as one of the players in the bracket of never really fulfilling their potential at the World Championships. If Allen turns up focussed and pumped up to go then he is as good as anyone on his say, but the issue for him I think is that he will throw in a bad session and depending on how bad it is and when it is, he may not be able to recover. His first round opponent is another tough one in Ryan Day, and it's always about what Day does on the day. You can try and second guess Day all you want, but he is one of those players that is a nightmare to try and predict. We know he has the class and the quality to win a few matches at this event, but equally we know he needs to get off to a good start or his head could start to go down and he is another player like Maguire who can get frustrated very easily, so he will need to be in touch with Allen from the very start.
Neil Robertson despite not having his greatest season will still come into this event as one of the favourites to win it. His first round exit at the China Open may well help him to focus his mind ready for this tournament and he'll be determined to go one better than last year when he was knocked out in the semi-finals by Mark Selby. I think Neil could've easily gone on and won that match last year and ended up as World Champion himself, and that might be the extra bit of spice he needs to come back this year and do it. However, confidence is a key part of the game and if the similar sorts of things start to go wrong in matches as have been in recent times when he has suffered earlier exits than we have come to expect from Neil. For me the Masters final loss to Shaun Murphy created maybe a few more small demons that Robertson hasn't let on and perhaps needs to exercise if he is to win this tournament this year. His first round opponent is Jamie Jones and he will provide a tough early test for Robertson. Jamie has been to the Crucible before and played well there so he will come in without any fear and with the top players he has beaten in the past he has shown that he can cause Robertson a problem here and I expect it to go close, though the Australian's experience could be the decisive factor.
Quarter Winner: Neil Robertson
Quarter 3
Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Ding Junhui Vs Mark Davis
John Higgins Vs Robert Milkins
Marco Fu Vs Jimmy Robertson
Judd Trump Vs Stuart Carrington
This quarter is filled with talent as well, with World Grand Prix champion and UK finalist Judd Trump taking on Crucible debutant Stuart Carrington in round one, while four times World Champion and reigning Welsh Open champion John Higgins faces the highest ranked qualifier in Robert Milkins. China's No.1 Ding Junhui will take on Players Championship and World Grand Prix quarter-finalist Mark Davis. Finally, Marco Fu takes on Jimmy Robertson, which I will be at the Crucible for both sessions of.
Marco Fu hasn't had the best season ever to put it kindly to the man from Hong Kong. A Last 32 exit at the China Open followed Last 32 exits at the Players Championship finals and the World Grand Prix, and Marco hasn't really played many matches or played well in these matches since the Welsh Open and he could be coming in a little more cold than some of the other seeds turning up at the Crucible. Fu however, is a very gritty player with a lot of experience in the game and a lot of ability, so if that all clicks early on he could easily have a great run and prove a lot of people wrong that may have written him out of contention. Marco works very hard and always goes about his business quietly and confidently, but he will need a good start, in matches because if you're not quite on your game it becomes much harder to turn around these early deficits, however determined you are. His first round opponent in Jimmy Robertson is someone who is playing well and in my opinion will come in with little expectation from some people which might be a little harsh on him, as he is a good player on form as he showed earlier this season to make the Gdynia Open semi-finals. As I've said with a lot of players, it's all about whether Jimmy can get a foothold and be in it after session one.
John Higgins seems to have re-captured a little of his form in the last few months having won the Welsh Open, and playing well to reach the China Open quarter-finals. With all of his depth in experience at the World Championships he is never a man you can write off of winning the world title. Yet, I still think that calls that the John Higgins of old is back are a little premature as the Welsh Open win saw him beat only one top 16 player and he has showed a lot of inconsistencies in his game of late that he's never showed before. The problem that Higgins could have is that one day he will turn up and play a great session, but the next day he could miss a lot of easier balls and ones you would expect him to get 9 times out of 10. As he showed at the Masters this inconsistency can even creep up between frames with him following a couple of centuries up by missing easy blacks off of the spot and that just let's your opponents back in and help them to believe that you're not unbelievable, which is hope that Higgins never used to offer up. The other thing worth noting is that, since winning the 2011 world championships, John has only won one game at the Crucible which was in 2012 in a first round decider to Liang Wenbo, losing in the first round to a very tough opponent in Mark Davis, and again in 2014 to Alan McManus. The job isn't any easier for John this year as, like in 2013, he faces a man that could well have easily qualified automatically as a seed in Robert Milkins. Rob has had a good season and will trouble any top player, if he gets an early foothold in the match. Milkins is one player that needs to settle very quickly otherwise his head can completely go and before you know it he's played himself out of the match. Equally, if he gets a good start against you, he can soon have played you out of the match.
Ding Junhui has a had a very mixed season and a pretty poor follow up to winning five ranking titles last year. Book ended by semi-finals at September's Shanghai Masters and the most recent China Open, Ding went a long spell without any good results or any good runs of form, and lost a particularly large amount of first round matches in this time which is unheard of for a player of his class. What you need following a poor run of form is to come to a tournament and a venue that you are comfortable in and have good memories of playing well at. Unfortunately for Ding, the Crucible doesn't seem to be a venue that he likes, yet like with any place, if you can play a good couple of matches and build up your confidence and self-belief then who knows what can happen. Ding also comes in slightly under the radar and that could ease a little bit of pressure, though there's always this idea that he is carrying the pressure of a huge nation, as the only real Chinese hope of winning a world title, year in year out as none of the other Chinese players are in his class as yet. His first round opponent this year is Mark Davis and one that he has beaten recently in Beijing in a shorter format match. The problem that I have when it comes to predicting Mark Davis to win these kinds of matches is that, when you think he has a chance of picking up a really good result he doesn't live up to this expectation, yet if you don't give him much of a chance he seems to pop up and get that result. This could be a question of the pressure he puts on himself. If he thinks he has a really good chance of picking up a memorable result against a top player from the outset, then this puts pressure on him that he can't deal with, yet if he just relaxes and plays his game not really expecting much from the match, then he go under the radar to produce a result.
Judd Trump is one of the players that it seems everyone has had their eyes on this season to potentially win the World Championships, and along with Ding Junhui, is one of the players you look towards for a possible first time winner. Judd has really come a long way in the last year, since his loss to Neil Robertson in the quarter-finals, which could almost fit into the category of a capitulation. It seems as though all of Judd's hard work is beginning to pay off and he is maturing not only as a person but as a player, and is someone now with an incredible all-round game. His safety play, matched with his incredible break building and long potting to match means that he can find his way out of trouble a lot better and his temperament and character is a lot stronger than it was to play the percentages, rather than going for a rash swipe at the balls in hope of pulling off a stunning long pot. When you are looking for a world champion you are a looking for someone that has got the complete package and after his performances at the Champion of Champions, UK Championship and the World Grand Prix, he has also ear marked that he can make the comebacks from horrible positions and dig in to win games against the odds with a lot of bottle and courage. In the first round this year he takes on a debutant in Stuart Carrington, and as good as Stuart has been over the last couple of years to get into the top 64, a lot of the results he's picked up are of players with a similar ranking to his, or just in the top 32, having not really picked up many stand out results against any of the top players like Judd. When looking at the matches there are a lot of close games on paper, and you certainly wouldn't say that this is one of them, but you never know.
Quarter Winner: Judd Trump
Quarter 4
Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Ricky Walden Vs Graeme Dott
Stuart Bingham Vs Robbie Williams
Mark Williams Vs Matthew Stevens
Ronnie O'Sullivan Vs Craig Steadman
The bottom quarter of the draw looks like one of the hardest to call as 5 times champion and reigning UK Champion Ronnie O'Sullivan faces debutant Craig Steadman, while International Champion Ricky Walden faces 2006 World Champion Graeme Dott. Shanghai Master Stuart Bingham faces Robbie Williams who has qualified for the Crucible for the second time having debuted last year. Last but certainly not least is two time World Champion Mark Williams facing an all-Welsh clash with two times World finalist Matthew Stevens.
Stuart Bingham has had another pretty good season this season with good runs in a lot of events, but yet again the titles for him have been coming in Asia and the in the UK he may have had a couple of semi-finals but he is consistently struggling to go any further than that on home soil it would seem. This year he has won the Shanghai Masters and yet another Asian tour event, and despite reaching the UK semi-finals in both of the last two seasons, he hasn't challenged for a title in the UK in my opinion. His first round exit to Ken Doherty last year was poor from him, not only because on paper he should've won but because the performance he gave was very poor too. I think Stuart struggles at the World Championships a little bit to be honest and this may just be because he favours the short format to the long format, because there are a lot of players that are like that. It may be something as simple as putting too much pressure on himself because it is the World Championships, or it could've been a different reason every year. This year is another story waiting to be written and he starts it off with an opening round game with Robbie Williams who didn't put on a good show last year, and is determined to do a lot better this time around although I don't know quite how he'll hold up in this match.
Ronnie O'Sullivan is always the first man that everyone looks to these days when it comes to the World Championships and rightly so as the 5 time champion and winner in both 2012 and 2013 and a runner-up in 2014. He comes into this years World's as the UK and Champion of Champions, having also made the World Grand Prix final. I think it's clear that Ronnie at his very best is just a cut above the challengers and that if he can sustain this for 17 days he will probably walk away with another world title. Unfortunately for him it's not that easy. He has always struggled mentally at different stages of his career and the World Championships is the ultimate test of the mind because at different stages in the build-up and over the 17 days as a whole where you will doubt yourself and your self-belief will be questioned, and it is up to the individual to deal with this. Ronnie has always suffered mentally and has admitted he struggles to deal with these doubts. It seems like his head hasn't quite been in the right place for a while lately, as he showed at the Welsh Open and even at times during the World Grand Prix, where having led 7-5 he just faded out to a 10-7 loss in the final. Ronnie's performance yet again at the Crucible this year will depend on how much he can keep his head together and stay on top of his mind and play snooker freely. In the first round this year he has a very tough cookie in Craig Steadman (who looks like the scariest man of all time in his World Snooker Live Scores photo) and that won't necessarily be the walkover that some expect. Craig has a lot of experience on the circuit, even if this is his Crucible debut, and he knows how to battle, so if Ronnie isn't on top of his game he will be punished.
Ricky Walden is still in my opinion one of the most underrated players in the top 16, and in fact he is seeded at 7 for this years World Championships and with good reason. Ricky admittedly plays his best snooker in Asia, where he can boast the International Championship title and an Indian Open final this season making him the second biggest money earner on the circuit for this season. In the UK the opinion is there that he has never performed but he could so easily have made the World Championship final just two years ago when he lost the semi-final to Barry Hawkins. Ricky has one of the easiest going styles in the game with his free flowing rhythm, and even though sometimes he gets bogged down in matches he is able to grind out a result and he's showed that many times, and he wouldn't have gotten to number 7 in the world without being able to dig in when he's not at his best. When thinking of World Championship contenders not many people will have Ricky Walden down on the list, and even the bookmakers have him priced far too big in my view because he could get on a run this year if he plays well and finds his strong rhythm. However, Ricky has an immediate tester against Graeme Dott who of course is a fantastic player, and of course a former world champion. Ricky will need to get a good start otherwise he could really struggle and Dott could get on top of him in the tactical department and starve him of the good chances that he needs to consistently win frames. However, Dotty of course is not as consistent in his playing levels these days and he even failed to qualify last year so this will be a very tough match to call and surely a close one too.
Mark Williams is someone a lot of people are talking about as a dark horse for this years World Championships, and it's easy to understand why. Mark has had a very good few months on the table, with 3 ranking event semi-finals this season at the International Championships, Welsh Open and Indian Open, finals of the Gdynia Open and Players Championship finals as well as the World Grand Prix quarter-finals. This, along with a considerable weight loss and fitness work, has him back in great form and full of confidence and belief (even if he doesn't like to let it on too much) and this along with some changes he's made to his cue and overall game stand him in good stead. Mark is so relaxed on the table and at tournaments that no match against any player seems to faze him, especially now that he's accepted he will never reach the same heights in his game that he has in the past. This acceptance has seemingly helped him to free his arms and play without as much pressure, although the World Championships of course brings this pressure and mental strain that you have to deal with, but I think he is one of the best players at doing so. In the opening round he takes on fellow Welshman Matthew Stevens, who has struggled this season and even though he has the experience, his game seems to be in decline with the lack of any kind of good results in the last year coming into this event, so I was surprised to see him come through three qualifying rounds, but I'm not sure with the inconsistency in his game how much further he can go once he gets underway at the Crucible on Tuesday evening.
Quarter Winner: Mark Williams
Tournament Runner-Up: Shaun Murphy
Predicted World Champion: Judd Trump
Whoever the winner is on May Day, then they will have come through the biggest test of skill and endurance there is in the game of Snooker and will be thoroughly deserving of their assured place in the history books, as the winner of what could be the greatest World Championships ever to take place. There's going to be some fantastic snooker played, heavy scoring, close games filled with tension, plenty of funny moments and the "Conkers Express" will surely roll into town a few times with the bottle required to win.
I'll of course be back with updates, upcoming round previews and opinions throughout the Championships and I doubt i'll sleep much ahead of my weekend at the Crucible and the start of the event. So, I hope you all enjoy it as much as I will.
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