Australian Open Preview

This week it’s time for the first full ranking event of the season as we head down under to Bendigo for the Australian Open. After qualifiers took place under the old structure with the top 16 seeds qualifying automatically, 16 more players came through qualifying right at the very beginning of June, three and a half weeks prior to the final stages.

The story with the Australian Open is usually who hasn’t entered, and despite the continued absence of Ding Junhui and Ronnie O’Sullivan in Bendigo, most of the other big names will be present, other than Barry Hawkins who is a former Bendigo winner and Mark Williams who is undergoing shoulder surgery at some stage. That means we have both of the last two world champions and world numbers 1 and 2 in Selby and Bingham, as well as defending champion Judd Trump and former champion Marco Fu. Home favourite Neil Robertson will be looking to go one better than his runners-up cheque in both of the previous two years, while World Championship runner-up Shaun Murphy will be looking to start this season playing as well as he did at the conclusion of last.

The absence of four top 16 players means that Michael White, Mark Davis, Xiao Guodong and Michael Holt are also seeded for this week, while there is a pretty strong line-up of qualifiers including Ali Carter, Martin Gould and Ben Woollaston along with some lower ranked players in Joel Walker, Michael Georgiou and Hossein Vafei Ayouri, so it’s a very exciting line-up, even if the tournament is for one of the lower ranking event top prizes in terms of money.

So, without further ado here is how the draw looks for this week along with my thoughts on what we can expect:

Quarter 1

Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)

Judd Trump Vs Jack Lisowski

Xiao Guodong Vs Ian Burns

Stephen Maguire Vs Joel Walker
Ricky Walden Vs Andrew Higginson

This quarter sees the defending champion Judd Trump along with last seasons International Champion Ricky Walden and the recent world cup runner-up Stephen Maguire and some exciting younger players at different stages of their snookering development with Guodong, Lisowski and Walker.

Xiao Guodong is one of the top 16 seeds for this week with four of the big guns deciding not to enter, and out of those 16 seeded players for this week it will be the first action of the new season for half of them, but not for Guodong as he was one of those that represented his country at the snooker World Cup. As part of China A with Ding Junhui, he didn’t exactly impress massively as the pair exited in the first knock-out round after topping the easiest of the four groups. In fact they were outshone by the China B team who went on to win the cup. This is an important season for the development of Guodong’s career. He has money to defend from 2 years ago when he made the Shanghai Masters final, and he didn’t exactly impress greatly in the 2014/2015 with not all that much notable to speak of. His draw isn’t the best if he can get past Ian Burns early on either as he has a possible second round meeting with the world number 7 and defending champion. But, will this season be the one for Guodong to really step up and be counted?

Ricky Walden is also in this quarter and making his first appearance of the season, so it’ll be interesting to see how he performances with a certain amount of rustiness in his game being inevitable. It’s hard enough to predict what Walden is going to play like in the middle of a busy period in the season, so after over two months off, how will he get on? It’s not the easiest early round draw playing Andrew Higginson in round one, with a possible last 16 tie against Maguire to follow. Ricky should be refreshed and raring to go for the new season, and he usually does come out firing after a decent sized break if he can get rid of the cobwebs early on. After a decent season last time out, Walden will be looking to kick on again in the next few months and really become established within the world’s top 8, as a realistic aim.

Stephen Maguire was a runner-up at the snooker world cup in Wuxi so any early season cobwebs should be history from his game, and that will all help in the process of getting used to what appeared to be a new cue for the new season. It wasn’t just a new cue for Maguire but a totally style switching from maple to ash it seems and that will take even more adapting too. The back end of last season was disappointing for Stephen as he fell at the first hurdle in Sheffield, and he’s now hanging on to his place in the top 16, and if he can’t start the season off well then he’s going to spend most of it looking down rather than up. He starts off the week against young Joel Walker and if he can overcome that test I think the quarter-finals is at least realistic for Stephen and that would be a decent warm-up for the rest of the early season.

Judd Trump comes into this week after a couple of months of reflection following his semi-final deciding frame loss in Sheffield, and what was a stunning season for the young man. He comes into this tournament as defending champion, and the world number 7. These are exciting times for Trump who is showing his potential and giving himself a lot of opportunities to win events, as well as converting a good percentage into the silverware he desires. As his first tournament of the season there will be a certain amount of rust to shake off and I don’t expect Trump to go on and defend his title, though I could certainly see him pushing it close if he can over a tricky early match against his friend Jack Lisowski, who always poses a tough challenge if he fires. If Jack doesn’t fire it could be quite an easy opener for Judd that helps him to kick on for the rest of the week.

Quarter Winner: Judd Trump  

Quarter 2

Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)

Marco Fu Vs Martin Gould
Michael Holt Vs Gerard Greene
Mark Allen Vs Mark Joyce
Neil Robertson Vs Matt Selt or Ben Judge

Here, completing the top half of the draw is former champion Marco Fu, along with twice a runner-up in Bendigo and the home favourite Neil Robertson. Fellow left hander Mark Allen and Nottingham’s Michael Holt will be playing their first competitive matches of the season, while Matt Selt and Martin Gould are two qualifiers who can definitely cause some damage in this section.

Michael Holt struggled last year for any real results against the best players or for a really good run at any stage, and this season is an important one for him to keep himself where he is now at least in the top 32. Coming to Australia he’s had a nice break having not had to qualify here or not qualifying for Sheffield so he’s had about 8-10 weeks away from the table so he should be raring to get going again. First up this week though he has a very tough opponent in Gerard Greene who qualified without dropping a frame, and then went on to carry Northern Ireland in the world cup, while Joe Swail appeared to be the one who was struggling. With the cobwebs blown away though he will probably settle the quicker of the two in this match and I think that Gerard could edge it if it goes close as I expect.

Mark Allen is also in his first event of the season after turning down the chance to partner Gerard Greene in the Northern Ireland world cup team. He was beaten in the first round in Australia last season and in fairness I don’t think he travels particularly well (from what you read on Twitter)so could be vulnerable if he hasn’t got into the Australian time zone by the first couple of games. Allen comes into this season after a disappointing end to a season that promised so much last year after two ranking event finals before December, but he only really had a Masters semi-final to show for the rest of his season after Christmas, and a Last 16 World Championship loss 13-11 from 9-6 ahead. Mark needs to knuckle down this year so we can start to see the very best of him, and I have heard that he is trying to keep in better shape, and let’s hope that this will help his form and results. If he could get going this week there is potential for him to go on very far, although a potential last 16 meeting with Neil Robertson could put an end to his week equally.

Marco Fu is a former champion down under and therefore has that money to defend from his triumph two years ago, and Marco is on the defensive a little this year with his ranking because he did little of great note last season and is in danger if he can get results here or in Chengdu where he made the 2013 final losing a decider to Ding. It’s a tough start for Marco this week against Martin Gould who is climbing back up the rankings and had good showings towards the back end of the year in the World Grand Prix and Players Championship Finals. Marco though was able to loosen the arm up in Wuxi representing the Hong Kong team with mixed results. The one thing with Marco is that he is a trier and a battler so usually you have to be right on your game to beat him and that will be the case again this week.

Neil Robertson is going to be one of the favourites for the title this week in Bendigo, playing on home turf and making the 2013 and 2014 finals, so he’ll have double the determination that he had last year to go one better. Again, he dusted away the early season cobwebs in Wuxi representing Australia in the World Cup and he played well, dragging a poor Vinnie Calabrese along and making the quarter-finals. Neil in all honesty would be disappointed with his ending to last season and some early exits in tournaments that he wouldn’t have enjoyed, and with plenty to defend this year with his final place here, a world semi-final and UK Championship winners prize money all from 2 seasons ago, along with Wuxi winners money which he couldn’t defend as the tournament was taken from the calendar. So, he needs to build momentum early this season and there’s nothing like playing in front of your home crowd to fire you up for a big run. Up first he has a possible tough match with Matt Selt who should come through the wildcard match he has, but if Robertson is on his game I think he’ll make at least the semi-finals.

Quarter Winner: Neil Robertson

Quarter 3

Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)

Mark Selby Vs Mark King
Mark Davis Vs Jamie Jones
Michael White Vs Hossein Vafei Ayouri
Shaun Murphy Vs Ali Carter

In the bottom half of the draw we have a particularly interesting section with world number one Mark Selby, and World Championship finalist Shaun Murphy joined by the exciting Welsh talent and Indian Open winner Michael White, with Ali Carter is surely one man outside of the top 16 who you would want to avoid this season, while young Hossein Vafei Ayouri has overcome 4 matches just to get here.

Mark Davis is always a tough player to pick in any draw. Often when you think he can kick on he doesn’t, but then if you underestimate him he’ll surprise you. I think the cases of that were in consecutive tournaments at the World Grand Prix and Players Championship finals, after beating Neil Robertson in the previous round at both events to get to a quarter-final he then came up against Stuart Bingham only to lose 4-0 and 4-1 when he and I probably both gave him better chances of kicking on after the surprise victories against Neil. This week first up he has Jamie Jones who really started to find his game towards the end of last season qualifying for the Crucible and making the Last 16 in Beijing. Mark is obviously playing his first game of the season so could be a little rusty and there for the taking if Jamie is playing well.

Michael White is one man who we will all be looking out for in every draw this season. After his win in India you have to expect great things from him, but (there’s always a but) it’s also down to how he can handle this expectation? He was the highest seed in World Championship qualifying but lost in the second qualifying round, and I think he was disappointed not to have qualified automatically having a couple of events at the Players Championship and China Open to really have a go at breaking the top 16 when the wind was in his sails. However, with money in the bank mostly from last season ranking wise, this season could be more of a free shot for him and if he starts out well in Bendigo who knows what 2015/2016 will bring for the Welshman. This week he starts off against Hossein Vafei Ayouri who will certainly be warm having played 4 matches to qualify, and representing his country in Wuxi just as White did. We all know that Hossein is dangerous and Michael will need to get out of the blocks quickly to avoid an upset.

Shaun Murphy is going to be an interesting player to look out for in the 2015/2016 season. From January to May last season he really hit his straps. A World Championship final (narrowly missing out on the title), a German Masters final and of course the Masters title at the Alexandra Palace to complete his triple crown as he began playing the best snooker of his life. After the World Championships that he had he really needed the couple of months off just to take stock of where he is at, with a now solid ranking at world number 6 and almost with a free shot at the first half of the season as he didn’t get past the Last 16 of a full ranking event until March of the corresponding season two years ago. A holiday for Shaun has been mixed with plenty of Golf and heaps of exhibitions after the World’s so I think he’ll be fresh and raring to go again this week. However, he also has the toughest first round draw of the lot in Ali Carter, and he will know exactly what he is up against there and that he will need to get rid of the early season rustiness quickly to beat Carter. Having a tough starter can work both ways, it can either see you sent packing very early, or fire you up to play your best snooker and go very far and I don’t know which of those will be the case for Murphy in Bendigo.

Mark Selby is the top seed in this quarter and the first thing I want to say about Mark is that I think he had a really good season last year contrary to what certain “experts” said on commentary last week. To deal with the pressures of being world champion and a father for the first time all in a space of a few months, and win a minor ranking event as well as the German Masters and China Open is very impressive. This season is all about damage limitation ranking wise for Selby who will obviously be defending his World Championship money on the two year system as well as his 2013 UK Championship runner-up money amongst other things. He’s the world number one with good reason and I can’t see him being troubled too much before the quarter-finals this week because his draw shapes up pretty nicely, although Mark King can cause trouble in round one. A solid start to the season for Selby is very much expected by myself.

Quarter Winner: Mark Selby

Quarter 4

Last 32 Draw: (Picks in Bold)

Joe Perry Vs Jamie Burnett
Robert Milkins Vs Ben Woollaston or Adrian Ridley
John Higgins Vs Michael Georgiou
Stuart Bingham Vs Fergal O’Brien

Completing the draw we have a quarter that includes the world champion Stuart Bingham, Players champion Joe Perry, recent world cup runner-up John Higgins while Fergal O’Brien and Ben Woollaston are two of the tougher qualifiers in this draw and both could do damage along with world number 16 Robert Milkins.

Robert Milkins is lining up for his first match of the season here against Ben Woollaston (so long as Ben can get through the wildcard round) and that’s going to be incredibly tough for Rob. Robert will be aiming for a strong season this time around to establish himself in the top 16, but I just don’t feel he’s solid enough and consistent enough as a player to do that. He has the talent, of that there’s no doubt, but his temperament and attitude is pretty suspect. Some days he’ll turn up and play out of his skin and can beat anyone, but if a few little things go against him early, he’ll turn into the club player that just likes to have a bash. That’s why a good start will be important for Ben, who must have big aspirations of his own after making the Welsh Open final last season and improving quite a lot.

Joe Perry had an amazing season last year winning his first ranking event and making a ranking event final early on in the season and he’ll be hoping for more of the same in a very big season for Joe. The gentleman had a very consistent season, two years ago, particularly after Christmas where he consistently made quarter-finals and semi-finals of major events. He’s a consistent and solid player when on form and he’ll be looking to start off his season brightly here, with his first match against Jamie Burnett, who you fancy him to beat if he plays some decent snooker. The one thing we’re going to see a lot more of now from Joe is confidence having won his first ranking event and proving that not only can he compete very strongly, but he can win and that is something which you can’t put a price on at any stage of a person’s career.

Speaking of winning, we’ve finally come to the section of the draw that sees our new world champion Stuart Bingham. Stuart was obviously in action at last week’s World Cup representing England, and he looked like he’d been enjoying some sun and some time off, after a long season of snooker and his end of season triumph. The question with Bingham this season is how he will deal with being World Champion, especially as this is something he didn’t necessarily expect to happen to him. He loves to play snooker all around the world though and is the kind of player that will play his way into form due to the sheer volume of matches that he plays over the course of the year. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle for a few events early in the season, while he gets back into that groove, and playing Fergal O’Brien first up this week is no easy task.

John Higgins is going to be interesting this season, as I think he may be starting to find a little bit of form. He represented Scotland at the World Cup, and was certainly playing the better of the pairing between him and Maguire that managed to get to the final. Higgins of course was back in the winner’s circle last season at the Welsh Open, and the only thing that is missing from Higgins game throughout his struggles is the consistency. He still has the ability to make the vital clearances and breaks in matches, but the problem for John is just stringing the frames and matches together at times when he just seemed to throw in a bad miss every now and again. We all know that the talent is still there with John and if he can keep his belief and confidence up and keep working hard he still has a few more good weeks and good seasons in his capabilities.

Quarter Winner: John Higgins

Tournament Runner-Up: John Higgins
Tournament Winner: Neil Robertson

So, once we start on Monday, the first round of best-of-9 frames matches goes on until Wednesday with a two table set-up that then sees the last 16 started on Wednesday also, and finishing on Thursday ahead of Friday’s quarter-finals, Saturday’s best-of-11 frame semi-finals and the best-of-17 frames conclusion on Sunday over two sessions. It should be an exciting week, and a very cold one for those coming back off of their summer holidays and going out to the Australian winter to resume business. It’s a strong line-up and you expect one of the big players to come through even this early in the season.

I’ll be back with blog updates as often as I can be this week, though with my Wi-Fi at home currently out of action, and awaiting a replacement router, it’s anyone’s guess as to when things will be back up and running, though hopefully it’ll be before the business end of the week.