On top of that at the back end of this post will be my Tournament Top Ten as there is little time between the Champion of Champions and this weeks Irish Open to do that blog separately so it features again here.
HEAD TO HEAD
- Alan McManus has beaten fellow Scot Stephen Maguire in their last three matches heading into the Last 128 meeting with Maguire here. Two of those victories came in last season's European Tour, while the most recent was in the first round of the 2016 World Championship.
- Nigel Bond and Liang Wenbo will be playing their tenth full match across PTC and ranking events, yet have not met at all in over five years prior to this event.
- In three previous meetings lower ranked players Li Hang and Allan Taylor have always gone to a deciding frame, with Li leading 2-1 overall.
- Shaun Murphy may lead his head to head with Luca Brecel 3-1, but he did lose out in the most recent meeting 4-2 in the 2016 Welsh Open. Previous victories for Murphy came in the 2015 International Championship, the 2015 Paul Hunter Classic and their famous 2012 UK Championship quarter-final, with Murphy going on to reach the final in two of those events, and still losing to the winner in the other.
- Joe Swail has a very good record against Dominic Dale with a 5-1 winning record in full ranking events or PTC's. However, only two of those meetings has been since the 2000 World Championship, with Swail winning both in deciders.
- The famous bogey man head to head comes with home favourite Mark Allen and Mark Joyce. In five meetings, Joyce has won four including two last season in the Australian Open and German Masters winning 5-2 in each match.
- Ahead of their first round meeting here, Lee Walker and Rhys Clark's only previous meeting came in the first home nations event, with Clark winning 4-2 in the English Open in October.
- The unseeded draw has pulled out a cracker with Marco Fu facing Ryan Day in round one. Fu has never lost to Day outside of the Championship League, with four wins despite two of those matches going to deciding frames.
- If Ronnie O'Sullivan and Jimmy White win their first round matches to meet in the Last 64 it would be their first meeting in ranking competition for six years.
- Ricky Walden and Rory McLeod could meet in the Last 64 for only their second meeting since Walden proclaimed that playing McLeod was like a dentists appointment following his World Championship exit to Rory in 2011.
- Michael Holt could come into a Last 64 match with Barry Hawkins should both win in Belfast, but Holt has only one victory to his name against Hawkins who has beaten Holt in each of their last three meetings and each of their first three meetings with Holt's win at the 2011 Shanghai Masters sandwiched between.
PLAYER PERFORMANCE: KEY INDICATORS
Average frame aggregate:
This week's Top 10:
Stephen Maguire = 17.82
David Gilbert = 17.06
Anthony McGill = 15.77
John Higgins = 15.35
Ding Junhui = 15.16
Shaun Murphy = 13.89
Barry Hawkins = 13.32
Jimmy Robertson = 12.74
Matthew Selt = 12.48
Ronnie O'Sullivan = 12.33
The absence of guys like Mark Selby, Neil Robertson, Stuart Bingham and Judd Trump has seen us go further down the list for the top ten here. Stephen Maguire is top of the shop with a very high aggregate, which is not ever so surprising given some of his overwhelming results in the Shanghai Masters in September. David Gilbert had a decent start to the season but has not kicked on. Then you come to three tournament winners in Higgins (who has won the last two events), Indian Open winner McGill and Ding who won the Shanghai Masters and made the International Championship final. There is then a small drop to those outside of that top five where we find Shaun Murphy who seems to have been playing better in the last few weeks without quite getting the results. Barry Hawkins was a semi-finalist in the first home nations event, while Jimmy Robertson and Matt Selt are surprises to me in the top ten before we come to Ronnie O'Sullivan who made the Champion of Champions final last week.
This week's Bottom 10:
Darryl Hill = -44.35
Sydney Wilson = -35.02
Kurt Dunham = -32.12
Jason Weston = -30.92
Alex Borg = -30.58
Christopher Keogan = -26.6
Paul Davison = -23.97
Michael Wild = -22.71
Josh Boileau = -21.5
Chen Zhe = -20.68
Darryl Hill is resoundingly bottom of this list which is not surprising when you see that he has not won a match all season and only won five frames across the matches he has played. Sydney Wilson has also lost every match he has played but not as badly as Hill, while Kurt Dunham has one win to his name over Alex Borg in the Paul Hunter Classic. Jason Weston is also in the 'Yet to win a match in 2016/2017' club, along with Alex Borg so it is no surprise to see these guys occupying the bottom five. Then there is a jump up to Chris Keogan (who plays Dunham in round one this week), Paul Davison after he gave Mark Selby a good go in round one of the International Championship, and then Michael Wild who won a couple of matches to qualify for the European Masters in Romania. Josh Boileau is higher for someone with only one win, but he was a non-entry at the International Championship meaning his aggregate was neither helped or harmed over the longer format.
Average frames per 50+ break:
This week's Top 10:
Ronnie O'Sullivan - 2.18
Mark Allen - 2.37
Ding Junhui - 2.51
Anthony McGill - 2.59
Shaun Murphy - 2.61
John Higgins - 2.62
David Gilbert - 2.72
Liang Wenbo - 2.73
Jack Lisowski - 2.74
Tom Ford - 2.75
Ronnie O'Sullivan is top of the average frames per 50+ break after his high scoring performances through last weeks Champion of Champions. Mark Allen has also been in very good scoring form, particularly in the last couple of weeks where he has reached a couple of semi-finals. Then we have a little drop to Ding Junhui and Anthony McGill who's good early season form and tournament wins will have surely helped them here. Shaun Murphy is always a frequent scorer, and has lost a couple of quality high scoring games in deciders just lately. John Higgins has really climbed up this list, having been at 2.9 prior to his two tournament victories. Finishing off the top ten are players that are all heavy scoring players, with English Open winner Liang Wenbo and then three guys that are frequent scorers even if they are not reaching the latter stages of events with Gilbert, Lisowski and Ford.
This week's Bottom 10*:
Kurt Dunham - 25
Jason Weston - 16.33
Alex Borg - 15.67
Sydney Wilson - 15
Christopher Keogan - 11.4
Boonyarit Kaettikun - 11.25
Elliot Slessor - 10.14
David John - 9.4
Ross Muir - 9.38
James Cahill - 8.7
Darryl Hill would be bottom of this list but as I mention below he does not actually have an average having not made a 50+ break this season. Kurt Dunham only has a couple to his name, while the next three above Dunham have not won a single match so you would not expect them to have scored frequently as a result of that. Boonyarit Kaettikun may not have won a match yet but he has lost a lot of close games and he has clearly scored better than other guys yet to win a match given the gap between them. Slessor and John have been a little hit and miss with their results, while the fact a player as good as James Cahill can be is in the bottom ten for scoring comes as a surprise.
*Darryl Hill has not made a 50+ break this season meaning he does not have an average.
Average contribution when 50 or above*:
This week's Top 10:
Li Hang - 82.74
Marco Fu - 82.32
Stephen Maguire - 81.47
Thepchaiya Un-Nooh - 81.06
David Gilbert - 80.78
Robin Hull - 80.57
Liang Wenbo - 80.41
Martin O'Donnell - 80.36
John Astley - 79.71
Ding Junhui - 79.24
When it comes to this statistic I have put a filter in place to only count those that have made enough breaks to be included, or else there would have been players at the top of this list who had only made two breaks of 50 or above this season.
Li Hang does top the list having made plenty of breaks and throwing in some very heavy centuries at times too. Marco Fu has been near the top of this list all season long, along with Stephen Maguire who has had a maximum 147 in his brilliant showing at the Shanghai Masters. You would have to say the trait of guys like Un-Nooh, Gilbert, Robin Hull and Liang Wenbo is that they make plenty of high breaks and a fair few centuries so them taking places four through to seven on this list is standard. Then come two players outside of the top 64 in Martin O'Donnell, and John Astley with Astley impressing in some of his results since returning to the tour. Meanwhile, another very heavy century maker completes the list with Ding Junhui, though it is certainly Li Hang that has the bragging rights here amongst the Chinese players.
This week's Bottom 10:
Dechawat Poomjaeng - 57.25
Oliver Lines - 58.13
Lee Walker - 59.36
James Cahill - 59.9
Gareth Allen - 60.71
Zhang Yong - 61.82
Paul Davison - 62.18
Allan Taylor - 63.67
Nigel Bond - 64.46
Rhys Clark - 64.82
As for those that are not heavy scorers, the man at the very bottom (once the filter has been put through at least) is Dechawat Poomjaeng who has gone on a long run of defeats recently. Oliver Lines has not scored as heavily as he can, and neither has James Cahill who we have already seen is struggling on the scoring front with his efforts on the average frames per 50+. As for the rest the common theme is simply that they are all lower down on the rankings and probably not winning enough matches due to a lack of heavy scoring in matches. However, breaks of around an average of the 64 mark have done for guys like Rhys Clark (making consecutive Last 16's in the European Masters and English Open), Allan Taylor (winning all of his qualifying matches at the seasons start) and Nigel Bond (who rolled back the years with his extraordinary run in India).
*Filtered to only those who have made at least 10 breaks of 50 or over.
Close Frames Win Percentage:
This week's Top 10:
Ian Preece - 85.71%
Yan Bingtao - 83.33%
Michael Georgiou - 82.35%
Mark Joyce - 78.57%
Alfie Burden - 76.47%
Stephen Maguire - 73.68%
Kyren Wilson - 73.33%
Li Hang - 69.23%
Thepchaiya Un-Nooh - 69.23%
Kurt Maflin - 68.18%
Ian Preece's high percentage at the top of the close frames percentage list comes from a smaller sample size, than the very impressive percentages of above 80 from Yan Bingtao who has been brilliant in his first half season on tour, and Michael Georgiou who has won a lot of these close frames (20 points or less difference in frame points). Mark Joyce will have to win any close frames if he is to beat home favourite Mark Allen in round one this week, while any percentages of above 70 are very impressive from the likes of Alfie Burden, Stephen Maguire who from his scoring stats we saw earlier is really showing off his all round game, and Kyren Wilson who has showed great tactical play since his breakthrough a year ago. The final three in the top ten of Li Hang (who topped the break weight stats), Un-Nooh and Maflin are all heavy scorers so they could be in the list thanks to good clearances from a long way behind in frames as much as grinding out close frames with exemplary tactical play.
This week's Bottom 10:
Darryl Hill - 0%
Robbie Williams - 15%
Chen Zhe - 16.67%
Thor Chuan Leong - 20%
Jimmy White - 20%
Yu De Lu - 22.22%
Fang Xiongman - 22.22%
Craig Steadman - 22.22%
Jamie Cope - 22.22%
Mark Davis - 23.08%
Poor old Darryl Hill is at the bottom of another list here, having lost all of the close frames in which he has been involved. Robbie Williams shaky form could be explained by the incredibly high number of close frames he has lost, while guys like Chen Zhe have also not won a lot of matches. Thor has lost a couple of close games and perhaps it has been these close tactical frames that are costing him. Further up the list, Yu De Lu, Fang Xiongman, Craig Steadman and Jamie Cope are all on the same percentage with the common theme that they are all lower down the ranking list and not winning high numbers of matches. Mark Davis is the small anomaly here as he has reached two quarter-finals this season so far, despite winning less than a quarter of close frames.
Quarter Finals or better since 2014/2015:
This week's Top 10:
John Higgins - 11
Ding Junhui - 10
Stephen Maguire - 9
Shaun Murphy - 9
Joe Perry - 9
Mark Williams - 8
Mark Davis - 8
Marco Fu - 7
Ronnie O'Sullivan - 7
Ricky Walden - 7
This list only counts quarter-finals in full ranking events, else I'm sure John Higgins would be further in front on this weeks list. Stephen Maguire has made a lot of quarter-finals for someone outside of the top 16 now, while Murphy and Perry have also made a high number without always kicking on and winning as many events as guys like Higgins. Mark Davis may have made eight quarter-finals but on the whole he does not seem to get past the last eight and into the semi's or final as often as he would want from those eight attempts. Ronnie O'Sullivan does not always enter a lot of ranking events so his position is not actually that bad, while for guys like Walden and Fu they may actually expect to get to these stages and beyond a lot more. However, they are both quite inconsistent and this leads to far too many early exits for guys that we all know can do better.
TOURNAMENT TOP TEN
Once again with the short turnaround this week the Tournament Top Ten feature has been scaled back and included along with my Stat Attack, and this week with the non-entries from Mark Selby, Neil Robertson and Stuart Bingham as well as Judd Trump's withdrawal we will see some different names in the top ten. This week the defining features were the events that have almost been back to back in the last five weeks (From the European Masters to the Champion of Champions) with emphasis on the first home nations in Manchester and previous home nations style events so the 2015 and 2016 Welsh Open's were also included along with all of the five statistics categories that have been shown above.
10- Marco Fu - As the graph will show you it has not necessarily taken high averages and high scores from past events to make it into the top ten this week, which is lucky for Marco Fu in tenth. Fu's best this season came at the China Championships with a good win against Ding to make the quarter-finals, prior to his withdrawal from the Champion of Champions last week so hopefully the reason for that was not too serious and he is ready to go this week. Statistically he has always been close to the top of the average break when 50 or above which just sees him sneak into the top ten.
9- Joe Perry - Perry is not that far ahead of Fu in ninth spot. He has been hit and miss this season but his recent best came at the International Championship making the quarter-finals before losing to the eventual winner Selby. Perry also made the semi-finals of the event that gave the template for all of these home nations events, the 2016 Welsh Open. Along with that he is in this weeks top five for quarter-finals made in ranking events since the start of the 2014/2015 season.
8- Shaun Murphy - The inclusion to the generator this week of the last two years Welsh Open will not help Murphy who always seems to struggle in that event. He also lost early in the English Open in a Last 64 decider to the eventual winner. It is hard to read much into another first round exit at the Champion of Champions as that is a bogey event for Murphy, but he has made the quarter-finals of the International and the semi's of the China Championship in recent weeks to separate himself further from Perry. Statistically he is in the top five with Perry for quarter-finals made in ranking events, and he also sneaks into the top five of this weeks list for frames per 50+ break.
7- Ben Woollaston - Woollaston is a name you might be surprised to see in the top ten, but he did make the Last 16 of the first home nations event in Manchester, and his record in the last two years of the Welsh Open saw his first ranking final in 2015, followed with a quarter-final this year. Not being in the Champion of Champions and China Championship means that on the whole he has a better average which is the only reason he sneaks above Murphy here.
6- Stephen Maguire - Stephen Maguire is in the exact same boat as Woollaston, though most of his points come from the statistics. He is with Perry and Murphy in joint third on the quarter-finals in ranking events list, as well as topping the list for average aggregate and third this week for average break when 50 or above. In terms of performances his best that was included in the generator was a Welsh Open quarter-final in 2015. His Shanghai Masters semi-final was not included, and had that event counted he may have crept further up this list.
5- Liang Wenbo - Liang Wenbo is the man chasing the million pound dream as the winner of the first event in the home nations series. Incidentally two of the other top 16 seeds in his quarter in Judd Trump and Ali Carter have both withdrawn which may improve his chances if he can win his early games. Aside from that win are his last 16's in Daqing and Romania, but he does not feature statistically this week and his best in the last two years of the Welsh Open is the Last 32 or he would more than likely have been in the top 3 or 4.
4- Mark Allen - Home favourite Mark Allen takes the fourth position in this weeks pre-tournament rankings after consecutive semi-finals at the China Championship and Champion of Champions. Looking back to the home nations style he was also a semi-finalist at the Welsh Open in February of this year and will be looking to kick on, on home ground. Statistically, a second place finish on this weeks average frames per 50+ break list is the decisive factor in him narrowly climbing ahead of Liang Wenbo.
3- Ding Junhui - Ding Junhui is one of the real form men coming into this week, with a semi-final at the Champion of Champions (where he made four tons and lost) and a recent final at the International Championships. He was also a quarter-finalist in the Welsh Open of 2016 but he shines on equal level in the stats lists. The Chinese number one is at number two this week for quarter-finals or better in ranking events, third for average frames per 50+ break and fifth when it comes to average aggregate. He is a long way behind Allen but also a fair way off of the top two, so his win at the Shanghai Masters not counting probably makes little difference to his overall ranking.
2- Ronnie O'Sullivan - Ronnie O'Sullivan comes in second on this weeks list as a two time finalist this season. Last week at the Champion of Champions he lost out to Higgins, while in the European Masters it was Trump who did the damage and denied him victory. He could not be denied earlier in the season at the Welsh Open though as he cruised to victory in Cardiff. A Last 16 at the International Championship also gives him a small boost. Statistically he is top of the list for average frames per 50+ breaks which was helped by a scoring barrage last week in Coventry.
1- John Higgins - Top of the pile it is no surprise to see back to back winner John Higgins. Winning the China Championship and Champion of Champions in successive weeks was never going to see Higgins finish anywhere else. If that was not enough he had three consecutive quarter-finals from the European Masters, English Open and International Championship. Due to it's similarity the Welsh Open of 2015 where Higgins was also the champion is counted which puts him streets ahead at the top of the list without the statistics. He is top of this weeks list for quarter-finals reached in ranking events in the last two and a half seasons, and that is joined by a fourth place standing in the average frame aggregates.
Those are all of the indicators we have going into this week on who should perform well and who could end up taking the title on Sunday night. Look out though because that is only half of my pre-tournament build-up complete, with the full Northern Ireland Open preview to come as well.
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