Thursday 28 March 2019

China Open Preview

The penultimate tournament of the 2018/2019 snooker season has arrived and far from being a warm-up for the World Championships, the China Open has a lot riding on it this week.

The second richest tournament on the calendar, the winner will take home £225,000 (which is more than all bar the top seven players on the one-season ranking list have earned all year), with the runner-up receiving a massive £90,000 which is more than a lot of tournament winners have received in this campaign.

With the tour survival battle getting tenser and the battle for Crucible seedings coming to a head this week, every win counts. David Gilbert is the man currently in possession of 16th place on the provisional Crucible seedings list and once again Ryan Day finds himself in 17th place and in danger of spending a second successive year in the qualifiers.

The majority of the top players have made it through to Beijing for this week. As defending champion, Mark Selby had his last 128 match heldover, along with World Champion Mark Williams, China's Number 1 and 2 in Ding Junhui and Xiao Guodong. The three other players to get holdovers by drawing the Chinese wildcards include Joe Perry, Mark Davis and Mark King.

Ronnie O'Sullivan, who made a 147 maximum break in this event last year despite a last 64 loss, did not enter the tournament, while struggling Shaun Murphy will also not play again until he walks out at the Crucible, after a qualifying round loss to Adam Stefanow and neither will Mark Allen who has withdrawn from the event.

There are plenty of former winners in the field though, besides Selby who has won it in both of the last two years and was also champion in 2015. 2016 and 2011 champion Judd Trump, 2014 and 2005 champion Ding Junhui, 2013 champion Neil Robertson, 2012 and 2009 champion Peter Ebdon, 2008 champion Stephen Maguire and the 2010, 2006 and 2002 champion Mark Williams.

With plenty of title contenders and a whole host of ranking matters at stake on top of the huge prize money, this is now one of the most important weeks of the year - so let's look at what is coming up from Monday:

Quarter 1

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold)

Mark Selby or Craig Steadman Vs Dominic Dale
Liang Wenbo Vs Gary Wilson
Ryan Day Vs Sam Craigie 
Ali Carter Vs Kurt Maflin
Marco Fu Vs Mei Xiwen
Neil Robertson Vs Kishan Hirani 
Mark King or Bai Langning Vs Alexander Ursenbacher
Barry Hawkins Vs Lu Ning

Dominic Dale is embroiled in the race for tour survival and is one of many to keep an eye on from that perspective in Beijing. Currently he is £7,900 below 64th on the provisional end-of-season list and only 6th in the top 8 players not already qualified for next season on the one-year list. Two wins in China would take him into top 64 but he faces the possibility of a very tough last 64 tie against defending champion Mark Selby and certain players below him could do some damage to his one-year list position if he loses that one. 

Alexander Ursenbacher is another player fighting it out for his tour place. He could close to within a very important £10,000 mark of the top 64 with two wins in China, which is meaningful as money for winning the first round qualifier at the World Championships is £10,000, so all the players outside of the top 64 will still have a good chance if they can get within £10,000 of the 64. Ursenbacher is also 4th in the top eight NAQ on the one-season list. He would move to 3rd with a last 64 win over Mark King or wildcard Bai Langning. Like Dale though, defeat leaves him slightly more vulnerable and still with work to do when he arrives in Sheffield. 

Meanwhile in the fight for a top 16 place at the World Championships, Ryan Day is currently the closest player to the 16 and by far the most likely to force his way in ahead of David Gilbert. However, he must make the quarter-finals here in Beijing as a bare minimum. Gilbert reaching the last 16 would force him to make the semi-finals as the current gap is £15,000 between the pair. In this incredibly tough quarter that pits him against dangerous young Sam Craigie in round one before a possible last 32 meeting with World Grand Prix finalist Ali Carter, he is certainly going to be facing a tough task if he is to avoid the three rounds of qualifying. Having said that, his recent run to the Gibraltar Open final has at least given him a hope, as defeat in the quarter-finals to David Gilbert would have made the gap between them significantly bigger, especially as Gilbert would have been odds on from there to go on and qualify for the Tour Championships. 

Ali Carter is another player that is still just about in the frame for a spot at the Crucible. Unfortunately for him though he needs to make it all the way through to the final to have any chance of forcing his way into the top 16. His missed opportunity may well have been the aforementioned World Grand Prix when he fought his way back into the match against Trump before eventually falling short. A victory there would certainly have put him into the top 16, but now he needs to do it all again and will have to come from by far the toughest quarter of the draw. Opening up against Kurt Maflin is certainly tricky but the idea of needing further wins from a route that could see him play Ryan Day, Mark Selby and Neil Robertson or Barry Hawkins just to make the semi-finals makes it tough to give Carter any chance. 

Mark Selby will be hoping to regain some confidence with some good results as he looks to build up to an assault on a fourth world title in six years by winning a fourth China Open in five years. The year in recent times that Selby did not win this title, when Trump won in 2016, was a year in which he withdrew from the tournament. The new best-of-11 format suits him even better than the previous best-of-9 frames format, but his form of late does not point to any outstanding chances of him winning the title yet again. Since winning the China Championships in September he has been unusually quiet and has just lost his world number one ranking, a position he had proudly held since winning the 2014 World Championships. That may give him added inspiration this week as a title win in Beijing is the only result that can see him regain the number one spot. With a tough quarter like this though and first round exits in both the Players Championship and Tour Championship, his only two events since the Welsh Open in mid-February, improvement will be needed if he is to go all the way.

Barry Hawkins meanwhile was last year's runner-up to Selby here in Beijing. That sparked a run of form that saw him then reach the World Championship semi-finals for the fifth year out of six, before then starting this season with a World Open semi-final, Shanghai Masters final and a narrow quarter-final loss in the China Championships, so his form in China has been very good in the last year. He too has been quiet of late though, failing to qualify for the Tour Championships, losing in round one of the Players Championship and more surprisingly, the first round of the Gibraltar Open, after a last 32 loss in the Welsh Open. To make things tougher he opens up this week against an in-form Lu Ning, who reached the semi-finals of the Gibraltar Open and the quarter-finals of the Indian Open to continue a very good return to the snooker tour that has also seen him reach the UK Championship last 16. Lu will certainly make life difficult for Hawkins here and may even send him to an early exit if Hawkins fails to bring something close to his A game. 

Neil Robertson therefore is my choice to win this opening quarter of the draw. It is difficult to argue with that given the way he has been playing this season, and particularly in the last couple of months. He comes into this event having made finals in the last three ranking events he has participated in, winning the Welsh Open before losing both the Players Championship and Tour Championship finales to Ronnie O'Sullivan. Here in Beijing he won this title back in 2013 and nearly completed a successful defence the following year, eventually losing out in the final to Ding Junhui. Not only is he back to his best but he may even be playing better than he ever has. If he can get through the first couple of rounds unscathed and with plenty left in the tank, his confidence is so high that he will not see anyone in the draw that he cannot overcome. 

Best of the rest: Mark Selby
Quarter choice: Neil Robertson

Quarter 2

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold)

Alan McManus Vs Pang Junxu
Stuart Carrington Vs Jamie Clarke
Stephen Maguire Vs Xu Si
Anthony McGill Vs Nigel Bond
Xiao Guodong or Soheil Vahedi Vs Michael Holt
Luca Brecel Vs Sam Baird
Robert Milkins Vs Hossein Vafei
John Higgins Vs Joe O'Connor

Alan McManus is one of the players currently still unsure of their position for next season. In the tour survival race he is in a very strong position though, £9,300 clear of 65th on end-of-season list. The only way you could see things possibly going wrong for McManus are with a first round loss here in Beijing and another first round loss in World Championship qualifying. However, with an extra £6,000 going on the rankings for a last 64 win, he could essentially remove any further pressure this week and he has been handed a bit of a bonus after the withdrawal of Mark Allen, which now leaves him facing wildcard Pang Junxu in the last 64. 

Xu Si meanwhile is looking somewhat stranded in the tour survival battle. He is nowhere near on end-of-season list - £35,500 outside of top 64 and needing a miracle on that front. On the one-season list he is 19th out of those not already qualified for next season, but two wins in China would throw him into the top eight depending on other results so by qualifying this week he has given himself a glimmer of hope. His last 64 opponent though is former China Open champion Stephen Maguire, who will be a strong favourite to beat the out of form Chinese player.

Nigel Bond has a much better chance though. He may be nearly £40,000 outside of top 64, but is 11th out of those NAQ on the one-season list. Overall, Bond would move into the top 8 ahead of James Cahill, Rory McLeod, Joe Swail and Duane Jones who all failed to qualify for Beijing and possibly Dominic Dale if he loses in the last 64, achieving all of that if he could get a last 64 win over Anthony McGill. Given the form of McGill this season, Bond will certainly feel that he can win that one.

Somebody else that is out of form, but still locked in as a seed for the Crucible is Luca Brecel. A first round loss in the Gibraltar Open, following his narrow last 16 loss in India, continued his run of not having reached a ranking event quarter-final since the Shanghai Masters of November 2017. His China Championship victory from the August of the same year is the only reason he is anywhere near the top 16 and his poor displays over the course of this season saw him fail to qualify for any of the Coral Series events. One thing that does mean is that he will be arriving in Beijing fresher than a lot of the top players, but with little form to speak of he is also very vulnerable to a first round loss. Sam Baird is his first round opponent and certainly someone that can cause trouble for the Belgian. He has already beaten an out of form Shaun Murphy twice this year and made the quarter-finals of the Scottish Open in December. Making him one of the best players to have started the season on £0 after regaining his tour card in last year's Q School. Unless Brecel finds something from the start this week, he is certainly going to have a battle on his hands.

Stephen Maguire has a decent record here at the China Open, as a former winner of this title 11 years ago and as a losing finalist to Peter Ebdon in 2012. Again though, Maguire is another player that has been a little quiet in the second half of the season. He took a 6-2 thrashing in his most recent event at the Players Championship, after losing in round one of the Welsh Open, and the last 16 of the World Grand Prix, his only three ranking events since making the German Masters semi-finals right at the beginning of February. So he will be another player coming here pretty fresh and the draw is slightly more open in this section given the withdrawal of Maguire's potential last 16 opponent Mark Allen, while potential last 32 opponent Anthony McGill has been really out of sorts all season. After three semi-finals and a UK Championship quarter-final, he has shown he is still capable of a big run but it is now over six years since his last ranking title win, a fact that really is astounding given his quality. Looking at this quarter though, he certainly has an opportunity this week.

John Higgins is my second quarter choice though, as the opportunity for Maguire is an even bigger one for Higgins. He has struggled this season at times, despite making a final in China early on in the season. He admitted he lost motivation after a second World Championship final loss in succession last season, though with the opportunity to put that right looming large, this is about the time that Higgins motivation may return strongly as he looks to prove a lot of his doubters wrong. In the last few tournaments he has shown better signs, making the Players Championship quarter-finals, losing narrowly to O'Sullivan after beating Selby, and that followed a semi-final in India as well as a quarter-final in Wales. The man he lost to in Cardiff is the man he opens up against in Beijing, as he looks to get a little bit of revenge on youngster Joe O'Connor, but there is no-one else really in this quarter that you would look at and think that they are at the top of their game right now. While there are certainly still some difficult names in this section, Higgins may be quietly confident of another decent week as he builds towards Sheffield.

Best of the rest: Stephen Maguire
Quarter choice: John Higgins


Quarter 3

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Judd Trump Vs Robbie Williams
Zhou Yuelong Vs Li Hang
Jack Lisowski Vs John Astley
Chris Wakelin Vs Gerard Greene
Yan Bingtao Vs Peter Ebdon
Stuart Bingham Vs Elliot Slessor
Rod Lawler Vs Thor Chuan Leong
Kyren Wilson Vs Yuan Sijun

The battle for tour survival continues in the third quarter starting with Robbie Williams. Williams is currently £4,400 clear of 65th on end-of-season list so could do with a first round victory here to extend that beyond the £10,000 mark mentioned earlier. However, in order to do that he would have to beat the two-time former champion and current Masters holder Judd Trump in what is a very tough match, especially under this kind of added pressure.

There is also plenty of pressure on Northern Ireland's Gerard Greene. He would close to within the all-important £10,000 of the top 64 on the end-of-season list with two wins in China, but that will be a big ask for him. Currently, Greene is 14th in the NAQ category of the one-season list. However, he would move ahead of joint 8th placed Rory McLeod and James Cahill plus 7th placed Joe Swail with a last 64 win over Chris Wakelin and if he does not succumb to the pressure, he has a reasonable chance of getting over the line in that game, having beaten Graeme Dott to qualify.

Rod Lawler also collected an impressive win in qualifying, thrashing Martin Gould to keep alive any hopes that he has of being on the tour next season, without having to go to Q School. He is nearly £53,000 outside of top 64 on the end-of-season list so would need a miracle there, but is a place above Greene in 13th in the NAQ category of the one-season list. Like Greene, he would move ahead of Rory McLeod, James Cahill and Joe Swail and within touching distance of Duane Jones with a last 64 victory over Thor Chuan Leong. Thor overcame Michael White in qualifying, but that is an incredibly winnable game for Lawler and gives him an excellent chance of climbing into position for a new tour card on the one-season list.

Kyren Wilson is both a contender this week in Beijing but also looking further ahead to the World Championships. He has gone slightly quiet since winning the German Masters back in February, losing early in Cardiff, as well as both first round matches narrowly in the Players Championship and Tour Championships. His last 16 exit in the Gibraltar Open to Robert Milkins was also a little bit of a surprise and his first round opponent this week not only beat Milkins to make the semi-finals that weekend, but also beat Wilson convincingly over the best-of-11 frames at the same stage of the International Championship. Yuan Sijun has had an excellent season, sitting in joint 19th on the provisional season list and is now well established in the top 64 in just his second season on the tour. Having reached a few quarter-finals he finally progressed to a semi back in Gibraltar and will be high on confidence as he takes on Wilson in what has the potential to be a last 64 giant-killing.

Jack Lisowski was a semi-finalist in his last visit to China at the International Championships and is a twice former China Open quarter-finalist back in 2013 and last year. His last appearance on the baize saw him suffer an early exit at the Gibraltar Open, after losing the final of the Championship League and falling to a 6-5 loss in the quarter-finals of the Players Championship from 5-2 up against Judd Trump. Lisowski is also on a run of losing four ranking event deciders in a row, after a 4-3 loss to Joe Swail in the last 64 of the Indian Open, followed a 4-3 loss in the last 16 of the Welsh Open, as his luck has seemingly run out after starting that event by winning three successive deciders. Amazingly, Lisowski has also played Trump on four occasions already this season, with his only win coming in the International Championship by a 6-2 score and the pair could make it five meetings here if they both come through the opening two rounds.

Judd Trump is a two-time China Open winner and after his breakthrough here in 2011 this tournament will always be special for him. He comes into it this year in the form of his life having won the Masters as well as the World Grand Prix and the Northern Ireland Open this season. He will certainly have an eye now on claiming that first world title but there is plenty to play for this week for Trump. He comes into this after that very tough Tour Championship semi-final loss to Ronnie O'Sullivan on the final black and prior to that he lost narrowly in the Players Championship semi-final to Neil Robertson. In the last few months Trump has been consistently reaching the latter stages and over the best-of-11 format it is hard to see more than a couple of players in this quarter that can really trouble him as he looks for another deep run.

Stuart Bingham is my third quarter choice as one of those players that is a threat to Trump. Bingham has had a good season, winning the English Open and the recent Gibraltar Open as well as making the Welsh Open final. In both that Cardiff run and the Gibraltar run he was a scoring machine making centuries aplenty and if he can keep that up over a sightly longer format then he will take some serious stopping. At seventh on this season's money list he has shown some consistency ever since winning the English in October, making the UK Championship semi-finals, which is played over the same distance as this event in the early stages and again provides plenty of reasons to believe that he can really go deep this week in Beijing.

Best of the rest: Judd Trump
Quarter choice: Stuart Bingham 


Quarter 4

Last 64 draw: (Picks in bold) 

Ding Junhui or Zhang Jiankang Vs James Wattana
Lu Haotian Vs Oliver Lines
Andrew Higginson Vs Adam Stefanow
Ben Woollaston Vs Ashley Carty
Joe Perry or Wu Yize Vs Scott Donaldson
David Gilbert Vs Matthew Selt 
Ricky Walden Vs Mark Davis or Chang Bingyu
Mark Williams or Harvey Chandler Vs Ken Doherty

Joe Perry still has a decent enough chance of qualifying automatically for the Crucible, by climbing into the top 16 with a good run in Beijing this week. Perry must make at least the semi-finals but would be less reliant on the results of other players as he would be due to meet provisional number 16 David Gilbert in the last 32. His last 128 match was heldover so he takes on Chinese wildcard Wu Yize for a last 64 place against Scott Donaldson, who recently made it to the quarter-finals in both the Welsh Open and the Indian Open. After Perry's last 128 exit in Gibraltar, he may be slightly vulnerable here early on against a good player in Donaldson and his hopes of avoiding the World Championship qualifiers may come to an abrupt early end this week.

Ricky Walden is a former China Open finalist, having reached the big finale in this event three years ago now. Famously, his three ranking event wins have all come in China and he would have been desperate to win the biggest of the lot back in 2016, but fell short against Judd Trump. He has suffered a pretty quiet season overall, but will be looking to find some form here in Beijing ahead of the World Championship qualifiers and he is still more than capable of picking up a few victories this week and being a potential darkhorse in this bottom section.

David Gilbert is the man with the weight of the world on his shoulders this week. He is of course provisional number 16 on the Crucible seedings list and will be looking over his shoulder as this tournament progresses through the week. Frankly, he has had chances in the last few weeks to put this to bed, most notably losing to provisional number 17 Ryan Day in Gibraltar, when a win there could have opened the door to qualifying for the lucrative Tour Championship. He also suffered a first round loss in the Players Championship and a last 64 exit out at the Indian Open, despite leading Elliot Slessor 3-1 in that race to four, having also lost out 4-3 in the first round of the Welsh Open. Those early exits may be a small sign that the pressure could get to him this week and he will hardly be overjoyed to be facing new Indian Open winner Matthew Selt in the last 64. Selt will be playing full of confidence and compared to Gilbert, he also has nothing to lose. A couple of wins to reach the last 16 would make the task of the chasing pack significantly harder, but as it stands he could lose in round one or two and nearest challenger Day would still need to reach the quarter-finals.

Mark Williams is someone that has really done some damage in this tournament in years gone by. He was a losing finalist here as recently as two years ago, as well as winning the title in 2002, 2006 and 2010. This season he has won again in China, taking home the World Open title in Yushan back in the summer and now the world champion will be hoping to find his form ahead of his title defence. Despite blowing an 8-5 lead to lose 9-8 against Judd Trump in the first round, the Tour Championship saw the Welshman show some more positive signs, but on the whole it has been a quiet few months for him. He lost early in the World Grand Prix and the Welsh Open, as well as in the first round of the Masters so he could certainly do with a confidence boost and there is nothing like a tournament where you have plenty of good memories to try and do that. His heldover match with Harvey Chandler should be no problem and while there are a few obstacles in his half of this quarter, a closer look would show an excellent chance for him to make the quarters and maybe even go a lot further.

Ding Junhui is my fourth and final quarter choice. The home favourite will be looking to complete a hat-trick of China Open titles, having won back in 2005 and 2014, as well as a further final in 2010, and four further semi-finals in 2006, 2011, 2012 and 2015. It may have been a largely quiet season for Ding, but he has only played in eight ranking events, the last of which was at the Welsh Open where he lost in the last 16. Before that he lost in the quarter-finals of the German Masters, the semi-finals of the Masters and lost in the last 16 of his last three ranking events prior to Christmas. He has not been playing badly by any means but has just not quite been as sharp as he would like. Now though, he will be feeling fresh and should be ready and focused for an assault on both this title and an attempt at winning his first world title as well. His record in this event shows that he is never far away and the draw is open after the likes of Shaun Murphy and Jimmy Robertson failed to qualify, meaning 31st placed Lu Haotian is the next highest ranked player in Ding's half of this quarter. It has the look of a draw where Ding could probably play through some rustiness in the first couple of games and potentially save some energy for the latter stages, which would be particularly handy if he can reach the best-of-19 frame semi-finals. Any season where the 13 time ranking event winner is not in the winners circle just does not feel quite right so perhaps this is the week where someone fresh and hopefully hungry like Ding could so some serious damage.

Best of the rest: Mark Williams
Quarter choice: Ding Junhui
Tournament winner selection: Ding Junhui

All of the matches in the early rounds in Beijing are the best-of-11 frames, before Saturday's two-session best-of-19 frame semi-finals and the best-of-21 frame final that will conclude the week.

All of the action will be available to watch in the UK and in Europe via Eurosport TV and on the Eurosport Player and keep an eye on the blog throughout the week, for round-by-round updates including the latest news on tour survival and the battle for those all-important Crucible seedings. 

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