It's time for me to try and predict who those 16 will be:
Section 1
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Zhang Anda Vs Andrew Pagett plays Dechawat Poomjaeng
Craig Steadman Vs Jak Jones plays Steve Davis
Winner plays Ken Doherty
This little section, like most of the ones in the draw will be, is crawling with players that need the wins for their places on the money list. Craig Steadman's form has gradually improved as the season has gone on, and if he can get over a short turnaround he'll be a big favourite to beat Jak Jones who has had a very poor season. Whoever wins that though, I'd still back Steve Davis to win that match, desperately needing a victory or 2 in this qualifying event after a poor year from the senior champion has seen him drop just outside the top 64. Zhang Anda and Andrew Pagett have both had fairly inconsistent seasons, with some good results along the way. I fancy Zhang to win that one, but I certainly think that Poomjaeng (one of last years qualifiers) will probably beat the winner of that one, and is probably most likely to end up in the final qualifying round, however determined Davis may be with a tour place at stake. In that final round, Ken Doherty hasn't had his greatest season ever, getting quite badly beaten up in a lot of matches this season, but he was very unlucky last year losing to Matt Selt having come from quite a long way behind, and that will make him more determined to qualify this year, and he certainly won't want to spend the entire of the 17 days with Hazel and the BBC pundits in the Winter Gardens.
Section 1 Qualifier: Ken Doherty
Section 2
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Liam Highfield Vs Khailed Abumdas plays Jimmy Robertson
Thanawat Thirapongpaiboon Vs Sanderson Lam plays Anthony McGill
Winner plays David Gilbert
Liam Highfield looks to have a certain win in the opening round against our Libyan friend Abumdas, unless he's dramatically improved in the last month or so. Liam has put a lot of hard work in this season to try and keep his tour spot, but he's going to need some wins here to have any chance of surviving. However, if he plays well he will have every chance against Jimmy Robertson who you'd say has had another average season. Meanwhile, Thanawat also needs a lot of wins here, starting with a tough match against promising amateur Sanderson Lam, and I think that Lam will give that one a real good go to be honest. Meanwhile, I certainly fancy Anthony McGill to beat the winner of that opening round tie, and looking at the other mini section, I'd put McGill as favourite to make the final qualifying round because for me, McGill is a very promising young player who has consistently given the top players a challenge over the last year or 2, pulling off the odd good result. Meanwhile, in the final round will be David Gilbert, who hasn't had the most consistent back end to the season, and McGill will certainly give him a good match here. Gilbert will certainly have to improve on some of his recent form to have any chance, but McGill has played nicely this season so a Crucible spot is certainly within his grasp now.
Section 2 Qualifier: Anthony McGill
Section 3
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Barry Pinches Vs Hammad Miah plays Alfie Burden
Kyren Wilson Vs Chris Norbury plays Rod Lawler
Winner plays Graeme Dott
This section sees a lot of good players on their day battling it out for a place in the last qualifying round against former champion Graeme Dott. Barry Pinches has improved well as the season has gone on, and I certainly fancy him to beat Miah in the opening round, but Burden has also had a good season in parts so he should come through that into the 3rd qualifying round. Kyren Wilson has also had a very good season, and has showed time and time again why he is a promising young talent. I certainly think he will beat Norbury in the opening round, and from there he will give Rod Lawler a very good match, and it would be incredibly tough to call that one. Whoever does come through into the final qualifying round to play Dott, I don't see any of them really beating him, and has to be said that he's had a couple of good weeks in China making the quarters of the World Open and China Open, so a man with Dott's experience and decent seasons form shouldn't be losing here.
Section 3 Qualifier: Graeme Dott
Section 4
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Martin O'Donnell Vs Shane Castle plays Andrew Higginson
Daniel Wells Vs Ryan Clark plays Kurt Maflin
Winner plays Dominic Dale
Martin O'Donnell and Daniel Wells in this section both need brilliant runs this week to have any chance of staying on the tour, although Wells situation certainly looks like one which can't be salvaged so there will be a lot less pressure on him than will be on Martin O'Donnell. Martin O'Donnell probably has one of the worst possible draws in talented youngster Shane Castle, who certainly impressed me when he played Selby at the UK Championships. He's actually come very close to taking a big scalp a couple of times this season, and I have a sneaky feeling that he will get his scalp this time. Whether either O'Donnell or Castle could then beat Higginson is another question, however Higginson hasn't had the best couple of years and I don't see any way that he will qualify. Kurt Maflin is very dangerous in this section, having only just missed out last year, and having another good season to build up to the Crucible. I don't think he'll have any problems against Wells or Clark, and I'm pretty certain that he will make the final qualifying round. There waiting will be Dominic Dale who, despite his obvious experience, I make vulnerable as he isn't always the most consistent player, and can always throw in the odd bad session, which is no good in a best-of-19 match. I thought even before the draw came out that Kurt would be one of my players to look out for in terms of Crucible qualification, and there is nothing in front of him that makes me change my mind.
Section 4 Qualifier: Kurt Maflin
Section 5
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Jamie O'Neill Vs Cao Xin Long plays Peter Lines
Paul Davison Vs Chris Wakelin plays Alan McManus
Winner plays Mark Williams
The experienced face of Mark Williams would be very difficult to look past in any section for qualification, but this section looks particularly inviting for the former World Champion. Firstly, I fancy Jamie O'Neill to beat Cao Xin Long after improving his form in the last few months, especially at the China Open, and he would certainly provide a very big test for Peter Lines in the next round who is hovering around the 64 line in the end of season money list and will be under pressure to get the win. Paul Davison will also need a few wins this week, but certainly has a tough starter against Chris Wakelin, who has impressed me this year with some of his results, and I think he will get another good one here. Alan McManus has to be the favourite to make the last qualifying round here, especially with his experience and another nice season under his belt, he's also probably the only man in this section that has any chance of beating Mark Williams, but in the best-of-19 format I can't see the Welshman being beaten.
Section 5 Qualifier: Mark Williams
Section 6
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Michael Leslie Vs Christopher Keogan plays Aditya Mehta
Joel Walker Vs Allan Taylor plays Jamie Jones
Winner Plays Michael Holt
This qualifying section could certainly be looked at several different ways with some of the players in it, and with my choice of qualifier, it has to be said that I've taken a bit of a punt. Firstly, Michael Leslie hasn't had a very impressive 2 years on tour it has to be said, but I'd still expect him to beat Christopher Keogan. However, Aditya Mehta has had a very nice season making the final of the Indian Open and he will be a very hot favourite to dispose of Leslie or Keogan there. Meanwhile, Joel Walker's run to the quarter-finals of the Welsh Open (where he nearly beat Ding Junhui) along with some more good results in other events over the course of the season, and the fact that he comes highly recommended by Ronnie O'Sullivan and Shaun Murphy, gives me every confidence that it will only be a matter of time before he qualifies for the Crucible. His first round opponent Allan Taylor has had an average season with the odd good result, but not really a great deal to shout about, so I certainly fancy Joel Walker to beat him there. Next up for the winner would be Jamie Jones, who has admitted on a number of occasions that he has been struggling in recent months, and it has to be said that things have only gone downhill since his 2012 World Championship quarter-final. So, if Walker can bring out the game that got him to the Welsh Open quarter's, then there's no reason why he couldn't get into the final qualifying round. Waiting there would be Michael Holt, who's had another decent season but his former has also dipped a touch in the last few weeks so I certainly think that he will a little bit vulnerable, even though he has a lot of experience in the World Championship format.
Section 6 Qualifier: Joel Walker
Section 7
Draw: (First round picks in bold)James Wattana Vs Alex Borg plays Marcus Campbell
Sam Baird Vs John Astley plays Jamie Cope
Winner plays Mark King
Looking at the opening qualifying round here, James Wattana's form has certainly improved lately and you have to fancy him to beat Alex Borg quite comfortably, given the fact that Borg hasn't really impressed at all this season. Meanwhile, Sam Baird is one player who has certainly impressed me at times this year, particularly in the ET events, so if he can transfer such form and ability into the longer format, I'd certainly back him to beat John Astley, who's had an average year himself, and then to beat the horribly out of form Jamie Cope, who has been suffering a bit over the last 2 years thanks to a tremor in his cue arm, seeing him drop rather quickly down the rankings, and you really do have to feel quite sorry for him. The experience of Marcus Campbell, who will play the winner of James Wattana and Alex Borg, and Mark King who is waiting in the final qualifying round, do stand out somewhat in this section, with both qualifying last season where Campbell was unlucky enough to get Ronnie O'Sullivan and Mark King made it to the last 16 before losing to Ding Junhui. Campbell hasn't been in great form recently though, while Mark King comes into this fresh from a run to the quarter-finals of the China Open and another overall decent season. King is usually quite consistent when it comes to qualifying, and if he can keep his form up, I can't see anyone stopping him here.
Section 7 Qualifier: Mark King
Section 8
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Gary Wilson Vs James Cahill plays Tom Ford
Luca Brecel Vs Lee Page plays Yu De Lu
Winner plays Matthew Stevens
The stand out name in this section of qualification is former World Championship runner-up Matthew Stevens, and he will be one of the comfortable favourites to qualify here. Looking at the opening round you have to expect Gary Wilson and Luca Brecel to come through their matches. Gary has had a very good season so far, with a place in the Players Championship probably featuring as a highlight after a semi-final place in the 2nd Euro Tour event. His opponent James Cahill doesn't appear to have settled on to the tour particularly well so far this season, with nothing really to show for his seasons efforts, so Wilson will be a massive favourite to win there. Meanwhile, 2012 Crucible qualifier and 2012 UK quarter-finalist Luca Brecel will be another big favourite to beat Lee Page, who hasn't had a particularly sparkling first season of his 2 year tour card, despite beating Brecel in a ET event. Brecel hasn't had the most consistent season himself, but a run to last weeks China Open last 16 will provide him a much needed boost, just at the right time. Yu De Lu will be awaiting the winner of that match, and he's in some really good form at the moment making the China Open last 16 and the Players Championship quarter-finals, and I have to favour him to make the final qualifying round here, ahead of the likes of Gary Wilson and the out of form Tom Ford, who really seems to have struggled badly for results this season. De Lu would certainly be a surprise package if he qualified for the Crucible, and Stevens has struggled at points this season, but you'd think a man of Matthew's experience would just have a bit too much for De Lu and everyone else in this section.
Section 8 Qualifier: Matthew Stevens
Section 9
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Chen Zhe Vs Anthony Parsons plays Mark Joyce
Michael Wasley Vs Sydney Wilson plays Rory McLeod
Winner plays Robert Milkins
Once again, Robert Milkins is a massive stand out name in this qualifying section, with Mark Joyce and Rory McLeod looking like the only other players that could offer him a real challenge in this section. In the opening round, 2 good amateur players in SB Classic winner Anthony Parsons and SB Classic grand-finalist Sydney Wilson will certainly push Chen Zhe and Michael Wasley all the way. Chen Zhe hasn't had the best season, and seems pretty resigned to the fact that he will have to go through Q School to retain his tour place, and Parsons will certainly push him all the way there. Meanwhile, Wasley does seem to have been working really hard this season, and he should re-qualify for next year via the EOoM, and I think he will just have enough to get past Sydney in round 1. However, I do expect that both Mark Joyce and Rory McLeod will come through and meet in the penultimate qualifying round, and if so, Joyce would probably be the slight favourite especially after his run to the quarter's in Haikou in March, and coming back from 8-0 down to end up only losing to Michael Holt 10-7 in last years final qualifying round. Despite a recent dip in form since the new year, I still think Milkins should qualify for the Crucible, having had a lot of time off to go away and work hard for the World Championships, and he'll be full of confidence after beating Neil Robertson in the first round this year.
Section 9 Qualifier: Robert Milkins
Section 10
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Robbie Williams Vs Lu Haotian plays Liu Chuang
Li Hang Vs Ratchayothin Yotharuck plays Pankaj Advani
Winner plays Fergal O'Brien
If any qualifying section is going to see a lower ranked Asian player qualify, it is more than likely going to be this section, given the fact that 5 of the 7 players are from Asia. However, February's Gdynia Open runner-up Fergal O'Brien still leads this section, and will be a massive favourite to qualify for the Crucible once more. In the opening round we have a couple of decent games with Robbie Williams taking on young Chinaman Lu Haotian, and fellow Chinese Li Hang taking on Thailand's Ratchayothin Yotharuck. Firstly, both Robbie Williams and Lu have had good seasons, with Williams making the semi-finals of the Indian Open and a ET event, while Lu made the final of an AT event earlier on in the season. However, at such a young age, it will be interesting to see how Haotian goes in the longer format, which is why I make Robbie a slight favourite. His next opponent should he win would be Liu Chuang who has had a pretty poor season I can't see him winning his qualifying match whether he's playing Robbie or Lu. In the other mini section Li Hang is in slightly better form than Yotharuck who has just had the odd good result this year, and I don't think that that is enough of a basis for me to tip the Thai here. However, India's Pankaj Advani is probably my slight favourite to end up in the final qualifying round against Fergal O'Brien, having had a good first 2 years on tour, slight dropping off in the second half of the season, but I think this longer format suits his game a lot more than the other ranking events. Overall, Fergal O'Brien is certainly the experienced man of this section, and with some nice form to go with that and only one match to play to qualify, I'd be fairly surprised if we weren't seeing Fergal at the Crucible.
Section 10 Qualifier: Fergal O'Brien
Section 11
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Tony Drago Vs Robin Hull plays Tian Pengfei
Ian Burns Vs Fraser Patrick plays Jimmy White
Winner plays Peter Ebdon
It's quite tough to see past the highly experienced former world champion that is Peter Ebdon in this section, especially as he is far and away the best player in this qualifying section. Starting in the first round you have to think that Tony Drago will beat Robin Hull, while Ian Burns will probably have more of a match against Fraser Patrick, but one that I still expect him to come through. Ian was rookie of the year last year, but this year has been more of a struggle for him, although Fraser hasn't really done a lot of note all season, which makes it a little tougher for me to see him beating Burns. As for Drago, he's in more of a promising mood after skipping the China Open, feeling a bit pressured about tour survival and saying he was quite depressed. However, he went and had a practice with Ronnie O'Sullivan and says he's feeling a lot better about things now, which could be the boost he needs to beat Hull, who's not had much to shout about this season. You'd have to fancy Tian Pengfei to beat the winner of Drago/Hull and Jimmy White to do the same against Burns or Patrick. Jimmy had a good couple of results to make the China Open last 16, while Tian Pengfei has had a few good results in 2014 as well, which have massively boosted his standing on the end of season money list. I actually think that Pengfei will continue his form here and make it to the final qualifying round. However, I don't think he'll have enough to beat Peter Ebdon, who made the Last 16 himself in Beijing last week, after a mixed season for him.
Section 11 Qualifier: Peter Ebdon
Section 12
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Sean O'Sullivan Vs Mitchell Travis plays Martin Gould
Adam Duffy Vs Igor Figueredo plays Gerard Greene
Winner plays Liang Wenbo
This section could really go quite a few ways with some of the players involved, and the calibre of players on display. In the opening round though, I've got a feeling for another of the amateurs, Mitchell Travis this time who impressed beating Marco Fu and Kurt Maflin to get to the Last 32 of the UK Championships, and with him playing Sean O'Sullivan who hasn't really done anything to impress me over his 2 years on tour, I think Mitchell has a brilliant chance of victory. Meanwhile, Igor Figueredo is playing his first match of the season against Adam Duffy. I have no evidence here to say comprehensively that Igor has a great chance of victory so I have to go for Duffy. However, I have to think that the experience of Martin Gould and Gerard Greene will be battling out for the place in the final qualifying round against the equally experienced Liang Wenbo. Gould did qualify last year, but otherwise he hasn't really had a great couple of years seeing him slip from the top 16, to outside of the top 32 now. Meanwhile, Greene comes into this full of confidence off the back of his first ranking final in the Players Championship, and I have a feeling that he will be playing Wenbo in the final round. However, Liang has had a very good year this season winning an Asian Tour event and having decent runs in a few of the seasons ranking events such as a quarter-final place at the International Championship. It's tough for me to see past Wenbo for this one.
Section 12 Qualifier: Liang Wenbo
Section 13
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Noppon Saengkham Vs Vinnie Calabrese plays Jamie Burnett
Scott Donaldson Vs Ahmed Saif plays Cao Yupeng
Winner plays Ben Woollaston
This qualifying is one full of bright young talents such as Cao Yupeng, Scott Donaldson, Noppon Saengkham and Vinnie Calabrese, while Ben Woollaston qualified last year to make his Crucible debut. Scott Donaldson has had a brilliant season this season with good results in the Welsh Open, and the opening Asian Tour and Euro Tour events, and he feels he's played very well all season long. He should be a certainty to beat Ahmed Saif who's done nothing to impress all season. The match between Noppon Saengkham and Vinnie Calabrese will be a cracking game between 2 decent players in the first season of their 2 year tour cards. Vinnie has had a few good wins this season, and with guys like Neil Robertson and Joe Perry for practice partners he's hardly short of top class players to learn from up close. As for Noppon Saengkham, he's another from a long list of Thai players and he's had a lot of good results this season making the Last 32 at the World Open and UK Championship, and he'll certainly fancy his victory chances here. As for the guys waiting in round 2, Cao Yupeng qualified 2 years ago, but hasn't had a lot to shout about since some good early season form, and a match-up between him and Scott would be another great match which I think Donaldson might edge. Meanwhile Jamie Burnett is awaiting the winner of Noppon or Vinnie and his form hasn't been great either in the last year or so, so he may also be vulnerable to an early exit. In the final qualifying round Ben Woollaston is waiting, having qualified last year, and he'll be full of confidence and belief that he can do so again this season, but he doesn't have the similar good form to back it up as much in the ranking events, so he may also be vulnerable.
Section 13 Qualifier: Scott Donaldson
Section 14
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Stuart Carrington Vs Andrew Norman plays Jack Lisowski
David Grace Vs Ross Muir plays Nigel Bond
Winner plays Ryan Day
It's pretty difficult to see past either Ryan Day or Jack Lisowski for winning this qualifying section, especially is there isn't that much more convincing talent in this section from lower down the rankings. Stuart Carrington is a big favourite to beat Andrew Norman in my eyes in the opening round after seeing nothing for Norman to build from coming into this, while Carrington has had some decent ranking performances including the Last 32 at the UK Championships. In the other opening round match, Ross Muir hasn't had a great season with probably one of his best wins of the year being under investigation for match fixing at one stage, while David Grace has battled hard and looks more than likely of keeping his tour place via the European order of merit. Meanwhile, Nigel Bond has also not been terribly convincing over the course of this season, with no real massive results, continuing to chip away and get by on the tour in his elder years. It should really be Jack Lisowski playing Ryan Day for the place at the Crucible, but unlike last year, Jack doesn't come here with too much good form behind him and he hasn't really followed up his great performances that saw him get to the China Open quarter-finals. Meanwhile, I think Ryan Day has seen some big benefits from some time spent in the Championship league, playing himself into a bit of form, whilst making the German Masters semi-finals as well this season and putting on a very good show.
Section 14 Qualifier: Ryan Day
Section 15
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Mike Dunn Vs Rhys Clark plays Matt Selt
David Morris Vs Alexander Ursenbacher plays Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Winner plays Michael White
This section looks like it could be a very good one with some Crucible debutants of last year in Matt Selt and Michael White, lining up with some good young players in Thepchaiya Un-Nooh and David Morris also going for the Crucible spot. In the opening round we also have China Open semi-finalist Mike Dunn against amateur Rhys Clark, though given how recent that one is, Dunny may not go to far here if he is still having problems with Jet lag after the long flight home on Sunday. In the other tie, David Morris has been very impressive this year and a possible 2nd round qualifying game against Un-Nooh would be an absolute cracker. Morris has had a great season making the quarter-finals in Wuxi and the Last 16 at the UK Championships so his confidence will be high ahead of this one, and I can't see him losing first round to Ursenbacher who hasn't had any major results this season so far. Matt Selt said he's been struggling a tad since his Crucible appearance and his form isn't great ahead of this, so he may be struggling if he's hoping for a repeat performance of last season. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh is the exciting player of this section, knowing what he can produce when he's on top form, which he isn't far off of at the moment getting some really good wins under his belt, especially in making the Last 16 at the World Open, and if he could make the Crucible, he could be one of the tournaments great success stories. Michael White was one of last years big success stories, but since making last years world quarter-finals he's struggled quite badly for form and he is probably one of the more vulnerable players in the 17-32 bracket.
Section 15 Qualifier: Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Section 16
Draw: (First round picks in bold)Alex Davies Vs Joe Swail plays Anthony Hamilton
Li Yan Vs Elliot Slessor plays Dave Harold
Winner plays Xiao Guodong
This section is hardly jumping at me with stars, and Xiao Guodong is a massive favourite here to qualify for the Crucible, unless one of Anthony Hamilton or Dave Harold can grind him down in the final round. In the first round though we have a couple of very close games. Firstly, Alex Davies and Joe Swail have both had pretty similar seasons, with neither having very deep runs in events, but they have pulled out the odd good result every now again. This one could very well come down to experience and Joe Swail has a lot more than Alex which is why I think he'll just edge that. Meanwhile, there isn't much to separate Li Yan and Elliot Slessor either, neither one has had too many big results this season, although I do see a lot of potential in Slessor and I think a first round win here would be a good scalp for him. Meanwhile waiting in the second round is Dave Harold and Anthony Hamilton, with neither having too many good runs this season either, with them both just grinding out the odd result. However, I would say that Hamilton is probably the much better of the 2 and he should really make the final qualifying round, just as long as he doesn't give away another big lead like has done a couple of times this season. Xiao Guodong though is certainly the most consistent performer of all the players in this section, and he has consistently qualified for tournaments, making the Shanghai Masters final, the German Masters quarter-final and the last 32 of a number of different events. He's a massive favourite here.
Section 16 Qualifier: Xiao Guodong
Whoever does qualify for the Crucible at the end of these brutally brilliant qualifiers down at Ponds Forge, you know that they will be the 16 most deserving players of the spots and I really look forward to seeing if the older guard can get through, and what new faces we will be seeing at this years World Championships.
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