Next Monday sees the start of the European Masters in Romania, one of the new ranking events that have been added to the calendar in the 2016/2017 snooker season. Starting the build up to the week is my tournament top ten blog which is certainly a harder one as this is a brand new event. Once again the contenders will be ranked based on some statistics that I have been working on, along with form from the five events this season so far, and the other two things I put into the generator this week were the last two years German Masters (a similar event played in a similar style arena to the one for this week, and over the last two years it too has taken 32 to the venue after the Last 64 and Last 128 rounds were played as qualifying rounds under the flat draw) and how many semi-finals or better a player had reached in the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 seasons on the European Tour.
The statistics used to help develop this were: frames per 50+ break, average break when making 50 or above, close frame win percentage, quarter-finals or better since the start of 2014/2015 and average frame aggregate (calculated by average points scored per frame - average points conceded per frame).
So here's who, based on these factors, "should" be the players to watch next week in Romania.
10 - David Gilbert - David Gilbert sneaks into the tournament top ten this week thanks to his good results in the early season. A quarter-finalist at the World Open, he also reached the Last 16 in Riga and in Shanghai showing how much his game has improved over the last year. On the European Tour last season he reached a semi-final which also helped him onto the list. Statistically, he is fifth in this weeks field for average frame aggregate, demonstrating a decent consistency for average points scored per frame, and his heavy scoring as well as being second in the field this week for average break when making a 50 break or above this season.
9 - John Higgins - John Higgins just leads Gilbert, with a similar season so far. Higgins too reached the World Open quarter-finals, as well as the Last 16 of the Riga Masters and Shanghai Masters. The difference being that he did not enter the Paul Hunter Classic and Indian Open where Gilbert did and exited early. Higgins did not have the best record on the European Tour over the two most recent seasons, or the last two years German Masters which has a similar format to this week now. In terms of statistics Higgins is third out of this weeks field for the average break when 50+. Higgins is also joint fourth in the field this week for most quarter-finals in ranking events since the start of the 2014/2015 season. However, he will have to up his results to get higher up the list.
8 - Mark Allen - Eighth on the list for this week is Mark Allen, who may not have played too much so far this season, but still reached the Last 16 of the Shanghai Masters and Paul Hunter Classic. Allen was one of the best players in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 on the European Tour which with the shorter format could see him do well in Romania. His record in the last two years of the German Masters is average, He is also fifth out of this weeks field for average frames per 50 break or above, showing his good frequency of scoring. If he can keep that up this week then he will have a good chance of going far.
7 - Ronnie O'Sullivan - Ronnie O'Sullivan makes the tournament top ten list for Romania. Having not played much this season he did reach the Last 16 of the Shanghai Masters. Reaching the 2015 German Masters quarter-finals also helps his ranking on this list given the similarity between that event and the European Masters this week. O'Sullivan is also a past winner of the German Masters and seems to thrive in front of the big crowds in the big venues that we can expect in Romania.
6 - Ali Carter - Ali Carter has been one of the form players so far this season, particularly in the Chinese events as the winner of the World Open and a quarter-finalist at the Shanghai Masters. That should stand Carter in good stead for this week, along with the fact that he is a former winner of the German Masters and a winner last season on the European Tour with the familiarity of those two events compared to this. One of the things the tournament top ten does not take into account is the draw, where Carter plays another form man Anthony McGill in the Last 32.
5 - Judd Trump - Making his way into the top half of the list is Judd Trump. Trump reached the quarter-finals in both the 2015 and 2016 German Masters and is a good performer in Europe overall where he reached a semi-final or better on the European Tour twice in the last two seasons before that Tour was scrapped. Starting the season, Trump had a disappointing Last 16 most recently at the Shanghai Masters (losing 5-3 from 3-0 up), but in the first event of the season he reached the Riga Masters quarter-finals. In terms of stats Trump is fourth out of this weeks field for average frame aggregate, with a very high average points scored per frame so far this season. On top of that he also leads the field in ranking quarter-finals since the start of the 2014/2015 season, which should hold him well for this week.
4 - Anthony McGill - Anthony McGill has been one of the most in form players of the season so far. He won his first ranking title at the Indian Open with quarter-finals at the Riga Masters and World Open either side of that victory. McGill has been a semi-finalist on the old European Tour between 2014/2015 and 2015/2016, and if he can get past Ali Carter in round one he should go well. McGill is also second out of this weeks field for average frames per 50+ break so far this season, and this frequency of scoring would also have helped his average frame aggregate which he leads the tour for this season, thanks to his brilliant average points scored per frame. McGill could be a big contender again in Romania.
3 - Neil Robertson - Another player who has been in top form at the start of the season is Neil Robertson. Robertson gets a podium place on the tournament top ten this week thanks to his win at the Riga Masters and a semi-final at the World Open. In the 2015 German Masters he narrowly lost out in the quarter-finals and has also been a semi-finalist at the Tempodrome in an event that could be a key indicator for this week. Statistically, the Australian has been one of the best this season so far too. Robertson is second on the average frame aggregate, while he leads out of the 32 in the field for average frames per 50+, as well as having a good record over the last two years in ranking events being second in this weeks field for making the quarter-finals or better in this period.
2 - Shaun Murphy - Just away from the top spot this week is Shaun Murphy who had a maximum 147 break in the second qualifying round for this event. Murphy has been in the quarter-finals this year at the World Open, and he lost out in the semi-finals at the Indian Open. Again, taking into account the German Masters which I believe to be a good indicator, Murphy was the runner-up there in 2015. He is also the best out of anyone in the field for reaching the semi-finals or better in the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 European Tour events with four semi-finals or better out of 12 events which is a fantastic record. In addition, the Magician is in joint fourth for quarter-finals or better in full ranking events over the same period. Murphy is third in the field for average frame aggregate this season which again has a correlation to the average frames per 50+ statistic where Murphy is fourth out of this weeks field. The maximum break in qualifying shows he is in decent form and could go very far this week.
1 - Mark Selby - It is not at all surprising to see World Champion Mark Selby at the top of this list after his fantastic start to the season. Selby was the runner-up to Ding Junhui at the Shanghai Masters after winning the Paul Hunter Classic. In terms of similar events to this one, it was Selby that beat Murphy in the 2015 German Masters final and he also had two semi-finals or better on the European Tour between 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Plenty of things point to Selby this week, and he is third out of the field this week for ranking event quarter-finals from 2014/2015 onward. Selby has an extra match to play after having his Last 64 match held over, but that should have no difference this week and according to all of the indicators he should do very well in Romania.
The tournament top ten got off to a good start in Shanghai with number 2 on the list Ding Junhui (not in this weeks event) beating number 5 on the list Mark Selby in the final, so hopefully this bodes well for the rest of the season.
Next up on the blog will be the "Stat Attack" for the event, with my full preview to round things off at the weekend.
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