China Open Preview

After a two week break on the World Snooker circuit, attentions turn firmly to the race to the World Championships as the final qualifying event arrives, the China Open.

Judd Trump is the defending champion here in Beijing with him, Mark Selby and the top two Chinese players Ding Junhui and Liang Wenbo having their Last 128 matches held over. They are the lucky four that did not have to pre qualify in Barnsley all the way back in January, but there are a much more unlucky triio who have been drawn to play wildcard players before they can get going in the Last 64. Those with the banana skin to avoid are Jimmy White, Li Hang and Alex Borg. Robbie Williams was also due to play a wildcard player, but he has withdrawn through illness and Fan Zhengyi will now go straight into the Last 64. 

There are a few top players who get to have the extra time to prepare for the World Championships. Neil Robertson has decided to give the China Open a miss, while Mark Allen missed the entry deadline for qualifiers, something that his Twitter followers will certainly remember. Meanwhile, Marco Fu and Barry Hawkins both failed to qualify, though that may play into their hands with greater preparation time for Sheffield.

Ryan Day has also failed to qualify for the China Open which could prove hugely significant. He is currently 16th on the provisional seedings for the World Championships, meaning he is holding the last automatic qualifying spot. Everyone below him would have to play three qualifying matches to make the Crucible, but there are still plenty of players that can catch him.

Joe Perry - Must reach the semi-finals
Martin Gould - Must reach the semi-finals
David Gilbert - Must reach at least the final
Mark King - Must reach at least the final
Ricky Walden - Must reach at least the final
Michael Holt - Must win the tournament
Mark Williams - Must win the tournament
Alan McManus - Must win the tournament
Stephen Maguire - Must win the tournament

There is also the pressing matter of those battling for tour survival, and there are plenty of players involved in that battle who have qualified for Beijing. Here are some of the guys who have qualified and where they stand on the Provisional end of season list:

60 - Li Hang - £53,575

64 - Daniel Wells - £51,512
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65 - Gary Wilson - £50,362
66 - Ross Muir - £47,150

68 - Noppon Saengkham - £41,550

73 - Jamie Cope - £39,125

Crucially, 63rd on the provisional end of season list is Scott Donaldson. Donaldson is on the first year of a two year tour card so will not drop off of the tour in the event that he finished in 65th or below, but if he finishes 64th or above as he is projected to it would essentially relegate an extra player, by taking that spot unexpectedly.

Also, the top 8 players on this seasons money list who are not in the top 64 at the end of season will get a fresh two year tour card. Here is that list as it stands (based on the provisional end of season list) with players in red that are not qualified for China.

1 - Gary Wilson - £30,887
2 - Akani Songsermsawad - £25,500
3 - Rhys Clark - £24,425
4 - Hossein Vafei Ayouri - £23,000
5 - Ross Muir - £23,000
6 - Nigel Bond - £21,500
7 - Allan Taylor - £20,237
8 - Rod Lawler - £19,712
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Jimmy White - £19,525
Noppon Saengkham - £18,050
Eden Sharav - £17,025

Andy Hicks - £16,050 (Hicks is not currently on tour but is still entitled to re-earn his tour card by this route.

Again there is a key note on this that Robin Hull (62nd on the provisional end of season list) who is not in Beijing, is above Gary Wilson and the other players on the provisional season rankings and would take one of these spots if he were to drop outside of the 64. The same applies to provisional 64th on the end of season list Daniel Wells. 

Now that we know who to keep a keen eye on, here is how the draw shapes up for the coming week.

Quarter 1 

Last 64 Draw: (Picks in Bold) 

Judd Trump/Jason Weston Vs Ashley Hugill

Ross Muir Vs Eden Sharav

Anthony McGill Vs Tian Pengfei 

Martin Gould Vs Fan Zhengyi

Mike Dunn Vs Andy Hicks

Liang Wenbo/Itaro Santos Vs Rory McLeod 

Ben Woollaston Vs Kurt Maflin

Joe Perry Vs Hossein Vafei Ayouri 

Anthony McGill is certainly an interesting one to watch in this quarter. He had a solid start to the season, and will now be looking for some good preparation for another good run at the Crucible. Winning the Shoot-Out has secured his top 16 seeding for the World Championships, and this had had a big effect on certain others. Joe Perry is provisional 17th seed and he needs to win this quarter in order to make the World Championships without going to qualifiers. The draw is not the easiest for Perry to advance either, but if he can perform as he did at the start of the season in the World Open he has a good chance. Martin Gould is also chasing an automatic Crucible spot and also needing to win this quarter to do so. He starts off against a wildcard player, but has a possible Last 32 meeting with McGill and a potential Last 16 with Judd Trump so it will certainly be a tough route for him to secure this. Liang Wenbo is one of the home favourites and he has the extra match to play this week, not that this will be a problem against Itaro Santos. His form has not been the best after early exits in Cardiff and Gibraltar, but he could well have a strong run this week to take some positives to the Crucible.  

My opening quarter choice then is Judd Trump, the two time China Open winner. Trump has been the star of the season and is certainly one of the favourites for the World Championship this year. Once again, the early rounds this week should be easy enough for Trump in the form he is in, and unless someone plays really well against him I cannot see him being beaten easily. A winner at the Players Championship, he also made the final of the Gibraltar Open and the Welsh Open, which is showing a great deal more consistency from Trump. His consistency over the season is one of the signs for me that he is taking his game to the next level. As for this week, he has particularly strong record in China having won the tournament twice in six years. For me he is by far the strongest player in this section, and I do not see him taking the foot off of the gas before the big one in April. 

Quarter Choice: Judd Trump

Quarter 2

Last 64 Draw: (Picks in Bold) 

Shaun Murphy Vs Allan Taylor 

Graeme Dott Vs Gary Wilson

Michael White Vs Yu De Lu

Ali Carter Vs Stuart Carrington 

Michael Holt Vs Jimmy White/Li Yuan

Mark Williams Vs Zhang Anda

Mark Davis Vs Rhys Clark 

John Higgins Vs Ian Burns

Ali Carter is one of the hot contenders in this quarter, given his form this season with a recent semi-final at the Players Championship and a final at the German Masters. He seems to have struck the ball well for much of the season, which makes him a big contender for this week and a possible world championship contender. However, this week he has a very tough opening round tie with Stuart Carrington. Carrington impressed me with the statistics he displayed in my "Stat Attack" and he is someone who I think could breakthrough in the next year or two. His performances in Cardiff impressed me when I was watching him up close, and his scoring and manner amongst the reds was very impressive. Shaun Murphy has also found his form in recent weeks by winning the Gibraltar Open, and one thing that Murphy has never done is win one of the major Chinese titles in Beijing, Shanghai or at the International Championship. Having played well without getting the results in the first half of the season, winning in Gibraltar gives him something to show for the season. He would love to put that right this week, but again it is a very tough draw. He was very complimentary about Allan Taylor after their recent meeting in Gibraltar, while possible Last 32 matches with Graeme Dott, and a potential Last 16 tie with Carter (who beat him at the Players Championship) or Michael White show just one half of this quarter of death. Mark Williams is another top player in this quarter, though he needs a miracle to make it to the World Championships automatically. Only a tournament win here will do, and he has not looked like a tournament winner this season, and he has said similar in interviews and on social media. 

That makes John Higgins the second quarter choice. Higgins was a winner at the China Championship back in November, and narrowly missed out in the International Championship quarter-finals. Last year in Beijing Higgins missed out in the semi-finals in a tight match with Ricky Walden and he will want to go one step further and regain his form ahead of the World Championships. In recent weeks he has had a few early exits, and disappointing losses. In the Players Championship he surrendered a 4-0 lead to lose 5-4 to Ding Junhui. In Gibraltar he exited in the Last 64 to Mark Allen and that followed first round exits in Cardiff and in the Grand Prix. However, he got some strong match practice as he won the Championship League, and he is too good to be kept down for a long period of time. After the brilliant form he showed before Christmas it is understandable that he has had a slight dip in the last couple of months, but now is the time of the season when he will want to step things back up again. 

Quarter Choice: John Higgins

Quarter 3 

Last 64 Draw: (Picks in Bold) 

Stuart Bingham Vs Scott Donaldson

Robert Milkins Vs Noppon Saengkham 

Mark King Vs Sanderson Lam

Kyren Wilson Vs Xiao Guodong

Mark Joyce Vs Fraser Patrick 

Ronnie O'Sullivan Vs Gareth Allen 

Matt Selt Vs Zhou Yuelong

Ding Junhui/Sean O'Sullivan Vs Paul Davison 

Stuart Bingham has impressed in China this season making the semi-finals of both the Shanghai Masters and International Championship as well as the China Championship final. His record in China is very impressive overall given the Asian Tour wins he collected over the years. As well as this his recent triumph at the Welsh Open will have removed a big weight, by getting a first big title since his 2015 World Championship win. Ronnie O'Sullivan will want to have a big run to take some positives to Sheffield for the World Championships, and given his general reluctance to go to China in recent years, I am surprised that he has entered this event. Early exits in Berlin and Cardiff since his Masters win have sent small alarm bells to his fans, given that he was a long way ahead in both matches that he lost to Mark King and Mark Davis. 

Home favourite Ding Junhui therefore is the choice in this quarter. Ding Junhui always plays his best snooker in China, as a multiple winner of the Shanghai Masters, a title he won again this season, a multiple winner of this event and a former International champion. He also made the final of the international championship this season. He has had a very tough time personally in the new year that those in the snooker community will know about. There was a positive at the Players Championship when he turned his match against John Higgins around from 4-0 down and went on to make the semi-finals. The draw does not set up too badly for the Chinese number 1 and I feel that the 2014 champion will go very far this week and is a major contender to take the title once again here in Beijing, given his fantastic record on home soil, particularly in recent years. 

Quarter Choice: Ding Junhui

Quarter 4

Last 64 Draw: (Picks in Bold) 

Daniel Wells Vs Jamie Cope

Alan McManus Vs Matthew Stevens

Stephen Maguire Vs Fergal O'Brien 

Li Hang/Luo Honghao Vs Aditya Mehta

Ricky Walden Vs Alex Borg/Niu Zhuang

David Gilbert Vs Andrew Higginson 

Jimmy Robertson Vs Martin O'Donnell 

Mark Selby/Adam Stefanow Vs Alfie Burden

Mark Selby did not enter the China Open last year ahead of his second world title win, so he did not defend his Beijing triumph of 2015. Recently, he has lost relatively early in the Grand Prix, German Masters, Welsh Open and the Gibraltar Open which are not the best signs ahead of his defence given how well he played in the first half of tthe season. His draw is not bad this week and both Marco Fu and Barry Hawkins who were in this quarter lost in the qualifiers, so Selby is the only player currently in the top 16 that is in this quarter. Ricky Walden is a top 16 seed for this event due to the non-entries of Neil Robertson and Mark Allen, but he needs a huge run this week to actually get back into the top 16 and avoid going to Ponds Forge for World qualifying. Walden needs to make at least the final this week, though that is certainly doable, after making the final in Beijing a year ago. With all of his three ranking titles coming in China, Walden could easily grab another this week and get himself back into the top 16. David Gilbert is another player hoping to make the final this week and get into the top 16, and he would play Walden in the Last 32 if both win their opening round games so it is a tough route for both players. Gilbert has had some decent runs this season, but has not gotten close to a final, much like Walden, which makes it a tough task for both players. 

However, my final quarter choice is slightly more outside the box in the shape of Stephen Maguire. Maguire has a very good record at the China Open. In the last two years he has managed to keep his top 16 place by getting the job done here in Beijing, and last year he had to make it all the way to the semi-finals to do so. This year he has the unlikely task of having to win the event but that is not an impossibility. Maguire is a former champion if you go back as far as 2008, and he was also a finalist in 2012 as he lost out narrowly to Peter Ebdon. His best performance of this season has come on Chinese soil as he made a 147, thrashed Shaun Murphy before beating Barry Hawkins and Michael White on the way to the Shanghai Masters semi-finals. Maguire is long overdue another big run and it is over four years since he last won a full ranking title which is far too long for someone of his quality. 

Quarter Choice: Stephen Maguire

Winner Selection: Ding Junhui

That is all the information you need ahead of the China Open, but the big one is not too far away. The draw for the World Championships should be made on Monday April 3rd following the China Open final, with qualifiers getting underway at Ponds Forge on Wednesday April 5th.