Friday, 24 March 2017

TOURNAMENT TOP TEN: China Open

The Tournament Top Ten blog has returned as the generator has been fired up and told us who the best ten contenders should be for the upcoming China Open. Into the generator this week went the last five China Open's from 2012-2016, the last two Shanghai Masters tournaments (2015 and 2016) as well as this season's World Open, International Championship and China Championship.

This is along with my "Player Performance: Key Indicator" statistics that you will also find in my Stat Attack preview of this weeks tournament. These are the average frame aggregate, average frames per 50+ break, average break when above 50 and the close frames win percentage. 

Let's start the countdown: 

10 - Ricky Walden - Walden may not have had the best of season's, but with a few top players not entering or qualifying for this week he has crept into the top ten. What the list does not take into account are Walden's three ranking wins in China from years previous, but it does note that he was a runner-up at this event just 12 months ago, which is the main reason he makes the top ten. A quarter-final in 2014 also helps his cause, while statistically he is amongst the top five in this week's field for close frames win percentage. 

9 - Shaun Murphy - Murphy's record in China over the years has been a bit hit and miss, which is why he could not climb higher than ninth on the list this week. He was a quarter-finalist in Beijing in 2015 and prior to that a semi-finalist in 2013, so one of the only things he has not done is win this tournament. If you look at his record in China this year he has had quarter-finals at the World Open and International Championships as well as making the semi-finals of the invitational China Championship. The numbers also give Murphy a small boost. He is fourth in this weeks field for average frame aggregate and fifth in the field for average frames per 50 break. Had he have gone on and made a Chinese event final this year he would surely be in the top half of this countdown. 

8 - Stephen Maguire - Moving onto eighth spot and we find the man that saw off Murphy in the final of the 2008 China Open, Stephen Maguire. More recently in Beijing the Scotsman was a losing finalist in Peter Ebdon's famous 2012 triumph. As well as that he made the 2013 semi-finals and repeated that performance last year as well, to keep himself in the top 16 for the World Championships. One of the rare bright sparks of this season for Maguire came on Chinese soil as he romped to the semi-finals of the Shanghai Masters before Ding Junhui stopped him in his tracks. It feels very much like he should be even higher than eighth on the list, which shows the strength of the players ahead of him. As for his stats, the Scot is fifth in this weeks field for average frame aggregate, despite having a pretty poor season. 

7 - Ali Carter - Next up is Ali Carter, a tournament winner in China this season stretching all the way back to last summer when he picked up the World Open. Carter has had a very impressive season that has also included a quarter-final at the Shanghai Masters, amongst other good runs that are not included in making the list. In the last five years of China Open play, he has made a semi-final going back to 2014, and better runs over the years could have seen him make at least the top five. On top of that, he surprisingly does not make it into the top five on any of the four statistics lists used to make up the top ten this week. 

6 - Stuart Bingham - The 2015 World champion has impressed greatly this season in the Chinese tournaments. A former Shanghai Masters champion and winner of numerous Asian tour events has made the semi-finals in Shanghai and at the International Championships this season losing out on both occasions to Mark Selby. As well as that he narrowly lost out to John Higgins in the final of the China Championship. This event is arguably the only Chinese event where he has not impressed, with his last five trips to Beijing only yielding a couple of quarter-finals, though he did also withdraw in 2014. Numerically, Bingham impresses in the big breaks, sitting fifth in this weeks field for average break made when above 50.  

5 - John Higgins - Entering the top five now and coming in at five is China Championship winner John Higgins. Higgins lost out very narrowly to Ricky Walden in the semi-finals last year in Beijing, though aside from that he has only reached one quarter-final in the previous four years. This season, along with his China Championship win, he has made quarter-finals at the World Open and International Championship which is just enough to put him ahead of Stuart Bingham. Another list where he leads Bingham, is the stats list for average break when above 50. Here, Higgins sits in fourth for this weeks field. 

4 - Ronnie O'Sullivan - If ever there was a flaw with how this list is put together it is here. A points system is designed to give players points based on their stats and tournament performances, an average is then calculated based on the tournaments they have entered. Meanwhile, Ronnie O'Sullivan has not played in Beijing since 2012 when he was a beaten quarter-finalist. In China this season he did not enter the China Championship or the World Open and only made the Last 16 in Shanghai and the International. Therefore, his average is only calculated from the three events and the statistics. This is where he picks himself up, as the leader for frames per 50+ break and average break when above 50, whilst sitting in second for average frame aggregate. 

3 - Judd Trump - Defending champion Judd Trump reaches the podium after the brilliant season he has had so far. His other title triumph in Beijing back in 2011 is just too far back to be included in the list, else he would probably be at the very top. Early exits in the China Open in 2013 and 2014 have held him back slightly, and the same applies to his first round exit in the China Championship and a Last 32 loss in the World Open from this season. However, his runners-up finish from the 2015 Shanghai Masters is included to the list and he did of course make the semi-finals at the International Championship at the end of October. The statistics certainly display that the left hander has been one of the shining stars of the season. He leads the field for average aggregate, and is just a step behind O'Sullivan for average frames per 50+ break and average break when above 50. Given his recent form in the UK and Europe he should be right up there again in Beijing. 

2 - Ding Junhui - Home favourite Ding Junhui is the runner-up on this weeks Tournament Top Ten. In the last five years in Beijing he has been a champion once in 2014, whilst also reaching the semi-finals in 2012 and 2015. This season has been a successful one on home soil for Ding as he took the Shanghai Masters title beating Mark Selby in the final in September, before just falling short in the International Championship final a month later as Selby got his revenge. On the statistical front, Ding surprisingly only makes the top five in one category, sitting in fourth place for frames per 50+ break but as the above testifies, he is always a threat in Chinese tournaments. 

1 - Mark Selby - The world number one is also our table topper ahead of the China Open this week. He may not have entered last year, but he was the number one man in Beijing back in 2015 which makes it feel like there are two defending champions this week. He was the runner-up to Neil Robertson in 2013, whilst losing in the quarter-finals in 2014. This year he has impressed in China as I mentioned in the last paragraph. Ding Junhui was the man to stop him taking home the Shanghai Masters, but Selby made sure it didn't happen again by beating him 10-1 in the International Championship final in what was a dominant first half of the season from the world champion. One area where Selby is ahead of the rest is tactically, which is why it is no surprise to find him at number one in the list for close frames win percentage amongst those who are playing this week. He is also in third place for average frame aggregate and frames per 50+ break, showing again why is top of the shop for this week. 


These are the players that China specific results and the season statistics think will be the one's to watch this week, but my opinions will come into play later in the week in my full tournament preview. Before that will be my Stat Attack with more in-depth analysis of some of the statistics mentioned in this blog. 

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