There are usually a few absentees which (alongside Ronnie O'Sullivan who will make his comeback at the Masters in January) are Shaun Murphy who withdrew a few weeks ago, otherwise the Magician would have played Ding Junhui who himself has entered his first European Tour event of the season here. Neil Robertson has also chosen to withdraw after his York triumph, meaning he will have to enter and get to the Gdynia Open final as defending champion there in February in order to get to the Players Championship finals. This comes after Neil will now not have played in four of the five events and lost in the first round of the one he did play. Three of the four winners on the European Tour this season are also not in the draw, with Riga champion Barry Hawkins, Paul Hunter Classic winner Ali Carter and Ruhr ruler Mark Allen choosing to give it a miss, which makes Rory McLeod the highest seeded player on the European order of Merit in the draw after his win in Bulgaria.
Other than that the usual suspects are here and could do with some results, Stuart Bingham has struggled on the European Tour this season and has two events left to try and get himself into the Players Championship, which having played in all of the events and being world champion would be a big miss for Stuart. Stephen Maguire is also struggling after a combination of missed events and poor results sees him low down on the European order of merit. Marco Fu again has not had the best of runs on the European Tour and needs to pick that up, while Ricky Walden is low down on the order of merit, although by getting to the final of the Asian Tour event has secured his place in the Tour finals.
On a quick side note, the Players Championship Finals has now got a venue, after it was announced last week that Event City in Manchester will be hosting the 32 who qualify. This follows the announcement that the event will also be broadcast on ITV4 in March and with Easter in 2016 being early, the event starts on Tuesday 22nd and finishes on Easter Sunday - March 27th. In the event information that was released with the tickets going on sale last Thursday, it was also announced the format has been changed for the Tour finals. As opposed to the previous editions where all matches were best-of-7, it is now only best-of-7 to the quarter-finals with the semi-finals switching to the best-of-11 frames and the final being the best-of-19 over two sessions, which is much more appropriate for a big money event.
There is still plenty of time for guys to play themselves into the qualifying positions, and here's a look at the draw and the guys whose chances I rate higher than others.
Quarter 1
Last 128 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Rory McLeod Vs Zak Surety
Aditya Mehta Vs Amateur Qualifier
Joel Walker W/O Neil Robertson
Liang Wenbo Vs Matthew Stevens
Joe Perry Vs Amateur Qualifier
Jamie Cope Vs Amateur Qualifier
Eden Sharav Vs Yu De Lu
Mark Selby Vs Sydney Wilson
Alan McManus Vs Amateur Qualifier
Jamie Jones Vs Gareth Allen
Zhou Yuelong Vs Darryl Hill
Peter Ebdon Vs Michael Wasley
Jimmy Robertson Vs David Grace
Stephen Maguire Vs Sanderson Lam
Fergal O'Brien Vs Rhys Clark
Mike Dunn Vs Amateur Qualifier
At the very top of the draw, like every quarter in the draw, we have plenty to talk about. I'm going to start by looking at the tour card situation. As you may or may not know, the top 8 players not already qualified for next season (players in the second year of a tour card not provisionally ranked inside the top 64, or any amateurs) get a new tour year tour card. Mitchell Mann is currently the benchmark as he is in the eighth of those positions with £1,950 to his name on the European Order of Merit. Aditya Mehta is the first man to mention on this front as he presently sits in 70th position on the end of season seedings, around £4,500 from safety on that front. Meanwhile on the order of merit he is currently in the 5th of those 8 tour card spots £525 clear of Mitchell Mann. Joel Walker is another key part of this, sitting just over £10,000 behind 64th place on the end of season seedings, but with his walkover against Neil Robertson he would provisionally go £250 above Mitchell Mann before he plays his first round match.
In terms of making the top 24 and qualifying for Tour finals, Liang Wenbo could do with a good week as he currently sits in the jointly held 24th spot as little as £75 ahead of the competition on £4,050. Joe Perry the defending Players Champion has plenty of work to do, currently positioned in 36th spot, £1,200 behind Liang. Jamie Cope still has half a chance if he can put two or three wins together, standing £1,800 behind Liang which can still be caught up realistically in my mind with two events left, but there are a lot of other players between him and Wenbo. Again, Jamie Jones is struggling with a £1,950 gap between him and placing in the top 24, but with a run to the Last 16 this weekend he could put himself right back into it. Peter Ebdon is also right there, just £475 behind the top 24, which could be important as another 6 guys look likely to qualify by a combined order of merit with the Asian Tour where only one event has been held, so it's not all over if you finish in 25th spot for example. Stephen Maguire really does need a good week as he would be expected to qualify, but with two events to go the difference he needs to make up is already £1,725, but he could easily win the event. Fergal O'Brien in this quarter is also still in the hunt £1,275 behind the top 24 mark. Jimmy Robertson has a very nice position in 27th place on the order of merit only £75 behind the three guys occupying 24th. Although, on the combined list he would have an additional £3,500 from making the Asian Tour semi-finals so is a near certainty for Event City.
In terms of the main contenders to go out and win the quarter, the likes of Joe Perry and recent UK runner-up Liang Wenbo will certainly be amongst those you have to look to, while guys like Jamie Jones and Jimmy Robertson could pose threats as outsiders. The following two players are who I believe will make it the furthest in this quarter.
Stephen Maguire's last tournament victory came in the fifth European Tour event last season as he gave himself a Merry Christmas with a win at the Lisbon Open. Since then it's been a little shaky for the Scot in terms of his form. At the recent UK Championships he played quite well to make the Last 16 and started with a century against Neil Robertson before barely having a look in after that. The break he had before the Champion of Champions did him a little bit of good in my opinion as he seems to be playing better since, and the carrot for him this week is that he has a lot of work to do if he is to be playing his part in the Players Championship finals, and certainly would not want to leave too much to do in Gdynia. His draw could be a lot worse so he certainly has the opportunity to run deep over the weekend.
Mark Selby has been in pretty decent form of late. Some people have said he is struggling but semi-finals at the International and UK Championships would certainly not suggest that to me, losing both of those semi's to the eventual champion. On the European Tour he made the quarter-finals at the Ruhr Open and the Last 16 losing a tight match to Mark Williams in Bulgaria so he has been going along nicely and can expect to qualify for the Tour finals. Other than a possible Last 32 meeting with Joe Perry (who has been a little hit and miss form wise this season, particularly in ET events) he has a pretty comfortable draw and there would probably be a good performance from Joe or a surprise from someone else to see Mark off in this quarter on Friday or Sunday.
Quarter Winner: Mark Selby
Quarter 2
Last 128 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Tian Pengfei Vs Vinnie Calabrese
Mitchell Mann Vs Amateur Qualifier
Michael Leslie W/O Fraser Patrick
Dominic Dale Vs Noppon Saengkham
Kyren Wilson Vs Amateur Qualifier
Kurt Maflin Vs Amateur Qualifier
Zhang Anda Vs Cao Yupeng
Graeme Dott Vs Ross Muir
David Gilbert Vs Amateur Qualifier
Mark Joyce Vs Amateur Qualifier
Marco Fu W?O Tony Drago
Sam Baird Vs Paul Davison
Luca Brecel Vs Barry Pinches
Gary Wilson Vs Hamza Akbar
Lee Walker Vs Amateur Qualifier
Mark Williams Vs Amateur Qualifier
The big man in this quarter in terms of tour card information is of course Mitchell Mann. He holds over the eighth tour card currently and needs a winner against the amateur qualifier he will face in round one to hold on to that at the very least, but a couple of wins would do him the world of good. Michael Leslie certainly has a chance of catching him after receiving a walkover against Fraser Patrick which will plug the £525 gap he faced there. Zhang Anda and Cao Yupeng in round one looks like a big game, with both battling survival. Cao Yupeng has little chance of regaining his tour card via the Order of Merit route but is only £3,000 behind 64th place on the provisional end of season seedings and every pound helps from now until the end of the season. Zhang meanwhile is set to regain his tour card via one of the two spots for those not already qualified on the Asian Order of merit. Lee Walker could do with a win or two in Gibraltar as he holds the sixth of eight tour cards and is currently only £375 clear of Mitchell Mann and with £525 for a first round victory in a European Tour event that's not much at all.
As for tour finals spots, there are plenty of guys in this quarter still in the hunt. Dominic Dale is currently 23rd on the order of merit, £450 clear of the jointly held 24th place so another run to the Last 16 as he managed in Ruhr last time out would almost see him guaranteed a spot at Event City. Kyren Wilson is just £375 behind the 24, so he is still at the front of the race, and with a couple of wins this weekend he could edge ahead going to Gdynia in February. Again, you would expect a guy like Marco Fu to make the Tour finals, but this weekend he could do with a run to the Last 16 to realistically keep him in the fight. A £2,625 deficit at this stage is hardly ideal for the top 16 player. Luca Brecel goes into his match with Barry Pinches knowing that he is one of the three guys currently in joint possession of 24th place on the order of merit and he will want two or three wins to separate himself and give himself the best chance going into Gdynia.
These are the two guys you should be looking at from this quarter to go on a good run this weekend.
Mark Williams has been flying on the European Tour this season and has the most money out of anyone that has failed to reach the final of one of the events. He made the Last 16 in Riga not too long after shoulder surgery, and then he lost to eventual winner Carter in the Paul Hunter quarters. It was another quarter final in Bulgaria where he lost out surprisingly to Mike Dunn having beaten Mark Selby just a couple of hours before. The Ruhr Open was his best performance as he made the last 4 before losing out again to the overall winner Mark Allen, who was absolutely flying. His record in the European Tour events has been good throughout 2015, making the Gdynia Open final at the back end of last season and after making the Players Championship final as well, you have to say that Marks game in recent times appears to suit the shorter format.
Marco Fu again is another of the top players who would be expected to make the Tour finals, but is not currently set to do so. That is due in most part to a couple of non-entries in the early events and when he has entered he suffered an early exit against Ali Carter in Bulgaria. In recent times he has showed a little bit of improved form however. His scoring has looked more solid, and he only lost out in the quarter-finals of both the International and UK Championships in deciding frames. Over in Hong Kong he came out on top in the General Cup invitational, but that doesn't necessarily mean a great deal but his other results would back up my view that he is more than capable of a massive run in Gibraltar. His draw for the early stages looks reasonable and he would be disappointed if he didn't still have a chance on Sunday.
Quarter Intro: Marco Fu
Quarter 3
Last 128 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Ryan Day Vs Amateur Qualifier
Gerard Greene Vs Hossein Vafei Ayouri
Chris Wakelin Vs Michael Georgiou
Oliver Lines Vs Xiao Guodong
Matt Selt Vs David Morris
Alfie Burden Vs Amateur Qualifier
Robbie Williams Vs James Cahill
Stuart Carrington Vs Ian Glover
Michael Holt Vs Duane Jones
Scott Donaldson Vs Anthony Hamilton
Anthony McGill Vs Amateur Qualifier
Andrew Higginson Vs Amateur Qualifier
Michael White Vs Peter Lines
Ken Doherty Vs Liam Highfield
Rod Lawler Vs Lu Ning
Judd Trump Vs Zhang Yong
As we enter the bottom half of the draw, there are still plenty of guys battling for their tour survival. Gerard Greene is the first as he faces a tough match with Hossein Vafei Ayouri, currently sitting in 64th place on the end of season seedings presently set to survive relegation by less than £1,000 of David Morris, who faces a tough match himself against Matt Selt. Stuart Carrington is in 66th on that list just over £1,000 behind, but he is also at the forefront for a tour card via the European order of merit in the first of the eight spots and well clear of his rivals. It would be a bonus if he could qualify for the Tour finals, as that would help him attempt to break the top 64 and he is currently £1,200 clear of the jointly held 24th place, in 19th position on the euro order of merit. Scott Donaldson's match with Anthony Hamilton takes on some importance. Anthony's win in the UK Championship first round just about leaves him hanging on but £11,000 behind the top 64 and with plenty of ground to make up on the European Tour for a tour card, he could do with more than one win in Gibraltar. His opponent Scott, is in the seventh of those eight tour card positions and only £300 clear of Mitchell Mann in eighth but with all that set to change courtesy of Walker's walkover, that lead accumulates to very little. Peter Lines faces a very tough test against Michael White in round one currently sitting £11,000 behind the top 64 on the end of season list, and around £1,000 away from where he needs to be to gain a tour card on the order of merit. Finally, Liam Highfield hasn't won a match on the European Tour this season so has very little chance of gaining a tour card via the order of merit without making at least one Last 16 in the final two events. However, a win or two would be a big step on the end of season seedings where he is currently 67th and £2,000 adrift only.
Meanwhile, there is a whole new battle when it comes to a trip to Event City in March for the Tour finals. Oliver Lines has a shot at making the top 24 just about, sitting £900 adrift which is only a couple of wins in a European Tour event making his tough tie with Xiao Guodong massive for those hopes. Matt Selt is also hovering. He is in 22nd place £525 clear of the jointly held 24th spot which is again only a first round win ahead of the game. Robbie Williams remains in the hunt £1,275 adrift but will need at least a couple of wins to keep those hopes going. Andrew Higginson is the remaining one of the three guys in joint 24th, with Luca and Liang in the top half and set to compete in their first few games on Friday. Michael White's struggle this season is highlighted when you notice that he is on the wrong side of the top 24, by £750. That still gives him a great chance but he could do with making the Last 16 to put him in any kind of dominant position heading out to Poland in February.
When it comes to the main contenders for a quarter win, Michael's White and Holt can't be ruled out as outsiders along with Matt Selt, but these two guys are the front runners.
Judd Trump as I keep saying has had a very shaky and inconsistent season. On the European Tour he has done reasonably well with a Last 16 and two quarter-finals (to go with a first round exit at the Bulgarian Open which followed a 6-0 defeat in International Qualifying to Michael Wild). In the Champion of Champions he looked poor and was punished by Kyren Wilson, while in the UK Championships Last 32 against Liang Wenbo he completely switched off and lost his game to end up losing 6-4 from 4-1 ahead. If he makes a bright start to the tournament though he could easily pick up and fly through his matches. The draw for the first couple of rounds looks simple enough for him, though the possibility of playing Michael White is probably the only slight trouble he could run into and you would still very much expect him to make it through to Sunday again at least, such is his record over the last few seasons on the European Tour.
Ryan Day will be hoping to carry on from where he left off in Mulheim where he made the final of the Ruhr Open. On the way to that final he whitewashed Mark Selby and looked in really great form. This hasn't been his only good run on the European Tour this season making the quarter-finals in Riga. In terms of ranking events he has been playing reasonably despite a disappointing last 64 exit in York recently. At the Shanghai Masters he made the Last 16 before narrowly losing out to Ding Junhui, while he also made the Last 16 of the International Championship after narrowly beating Ding in the last 32. If he can get into his stride early this weekend, his draw looks reasonable and he would certainly be a favourite out of the eight guys in the top section of this quarter to make the quarter-finals for the third time in five European Tour events.
Quarter Winner: Ryan Day
Quarter 4
Last 128 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Tom Ford Vs James Wattana
Robert Milkins Vs Amateur Qualifier
Ricky Walden Vs Amateur Qualifier
Ian Burns Vs Steven Hallworth
Mark Davis Vs Amateur Qualifier
Li Hang Vs Allan Taylor
John Higgins Vs Dechawat Poomjaeng
Mark King Vs Amateur Qualifier
Ben Woollaston Vs Joe Swail
Jack Lisowski Vs Nigel Bond
Martin O'Donnell Vs Chris Melling
Daniel Wells Vs Amateur Qualifier
Thor Chuan Leong Vs Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Jason Weston Vs Jimmy White
Stuart Bingham Vs Craig Steadman
Ding Junhui W/O Shaun Murphy
On to the final quarter of the draw now and there are still plenty of guys here in the tour survival fight. Ian Burns is the first man to look to, as he is 69th on the end of season list just £4,000 away from making the top 64 so every little helps. In 31st on the Euro order of merit and holding the second of eight tour card spots for those not already qualified his guaranteed to be a professional one way or another. There is also still a chance that he can make Event City in March, adrift of Wenbo, Brecel and Higginson in 24th spot by just £525, the price of a first round win (if this was Bruce's Price is Right or any non-UK equivalants). Chris Melling's only hope of being on tour (without going to Q School) next season is to make up the £1,050 gap between himself and Mitchell Mann which is a tough ask without making at least the Last 32 in one of the last two events. Thor Chuan Leong is in a very healthy position for now in the third of eight tour card spots on the Euro tour with no chance of making the top 64 in the rankings at the end of the season. Craig Steadman has a very tough first round against the World Champion in round one here. Craig is currently just over £2,000 clear of 65th place in his present position of 63rd on the provisional end of season seeding list.
Meanwhile, there are plenty of players in the battle to make Event City and the Players Championship Finals in March. Robert Milkins may not look too great for now £1,350 behind the top 24 but he still has a great chance of getting into there with two events, and besides that he would look good on the top 6 not already qualified on an AT/ET combined list after making £3,500 by making the Asian Tour semi-finals. Mark Davis is in 21st place and looking strong with a £675 advantage but that certainly doesn't mean he can let his guard down and still requires plenty of wins. John Higgins has a gap of £1,425 to make up if he is to gain direct qualification, which is more than doable for him. However, on the combined list he does boast an additional £1,300 from the Asian Tour last 16 round that he made it to. A couple of wins can keep Daniel Wells realistically in the race, £900 adrift coming into this event. The biggest doubt though is the place of Stuart Bingham at Event City. He has only won £1,425 and sits 64th on the order of merit a whole £2,625 adrift and 40 places away from where he needs to be.
There are plenty of contenders in this section to go on and win the quarter, with Stuart Bingham as well as Ding Junhui, Ricky Walden, Robert Milkins and Mark Davis, but below are the two guys who I believe will go furthest of the lot in this section over the weekend.
John Higgins is a contender for any event he plays in at the moment and has to be one of the favourites to come out on top again in Gibraltar. This season has already seen him win the Australian Open, International Championship and lose out in the a deciding frame quarter-final at the UK Championship to eventual winner Robertson. It has not been such plain sailing on the European Tour however, and as I said he has ground to make up if he wants to feature in March at Event City. He lost out in the Last 16 at the Ruhr Open, didn't enter Bulgaria, made the Last 32 in Furth, prior to the first round exit he suffered in the first round of the Riga Open to an amateur qualifier. Securing Players Championship qualification is the carrot that has been dangled to the Scot this weekend and it wouldn't surprise me if he made the very latter stages on Sunday to have a nibble of that carrot.
Thepchaiya Un-Nooh is one man that I have picked to come out of the pack in this European Tour event. There is always one surprise name in the latter stages this season, or so it seems and the Thai certainly fits the bill. We all know that he can blow his opponents out of he water with his heavy scoring and if he can get over the fact he missed the black for a £44,000 maximum against Neil Robertson in his Last 32 exit at the UK Championship then I expect him to be back on form straight away here. The only European Tour event he has actually played in this season saw him lose out in round one to Liang Wenbo shortly after his run to the International Championship semi-finals. That followed a quarter-final exit on the Asian Tour and a win at the 6 Reds event in Thailand. All of these results and his semi-final at March's Indian Open all demonstrate that he is starting to show the potential that we all know he has by the bag full. His draw this week in this quarter sees plenty of players that he would be favourite to beat, with the only top players standing between him and the quarter-final are really Stuart Bingham and Ding Junhui who he could meet one of in the Last 32, but neither has particularly good form so he could easily make his way through to Sunday, and from there it is always anyone's game. He certainly has the form and potential to go all the way this weekend.
Quarter Winner: Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Tournament Runner-Up: Thepchiaya Un-Nooh
Tournament Winner: Marco Fu
This is also the last full event before Christmas, with the German Masters qualifiers to come from December 17th-20th, while the qualifiers for the World Seniors Championship for those interested are on 21st-22nd of December and these are all being held in Wigan.
Hopefully the tournament in Gibraltar will be a success as snooker travels out to another new part of the world for a professional event, which is a sign of the great success that the European Tour has been in all.
No comments:
Post a Comment