Wednesday 13 March 2019

Gibraltar Open Preview

After Ronnie O'Sullivan's historic victory in the Players Championship, this week is a big week for the lower ranked players, with many of them battling for tour survival and appearing for the final time before the World Championships.

For those that have not qualified for the China Open, this is a big week to pick up some valuable points and confidence ahead of Sheffield.

There is also the small matter of Tour Championship qualification, with three players in the field this week in the hunt for the final two spots in Llandudno.

Stuart Bingham is currently in 7th place, £500 clear of 8th placed Kyren Wilson, while David Gilbert - another £5,500 behind Wilson - is the only player in the field who can possibly infiltrate the top eight. As long as Bingham and Wilson win their opening round ties, Gilbert would need to reach the final in order to make the top eight. Should he reach the final though, the money in the event means that he would be guaranteed a spot.

This year's defending champion is Ryan Day who is also in need of a big week here as he sits 17th in the provisional Crucible list. Shaun Murphy is also back here having won the title in 2017 and missing the chance to defend his title 12 months ago, after withdrawing with a back problem.

Only seven members of the top 16 are in the field this week, though a number of players just on the outside looking in are involved but after Thepchaiya Un-Nooh won the Shoot-Out and Matthew Selt won the Indian Open, there could well be another first time ranking winner this week.

Here is how the draw shapes up:

Quarter 1

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold)

Ryan Day Vs Lukas Kleckers 
Noppon Saengkham Vs Leo Fernandez
Elliot Slessor Vs Mark Winsor
Mark Davis Vs Chris Totten
Mark King Vs Mark Joyce
Chris Wakelin Vs Simon Lichtenberg
Jak Jones Vs David Grace
Peter Ebdon Vs Jamie Curtis-Barrett
Peter Lines Vs Matthew Glasby
Harvey Chandler Vs Fan Zhengyi
Daniel Wells Vs Marvin Morgan
Khurram Khan W/O Ali Carter
Sam Craigie Vs Billy Castle 
Michael White Vs Hamza Akbar
Gerard Greene Vs Joe Swail 
David Gilbert Vs David Alcaide Bermudez

David Gilbert has a lot riding on this week. He will most likely need to make the final here in Gibraltar if he is going to make the Tour Championship. As the provisional number 16 in the Crucible seeding list, a place in the Tour Championship would almost guarantee his spot in the World Championships as a seed. However, he has already missed two major chances of being in a better position in the Tour Championship race. Had his opening round game against Stuart Bingham in the Players Championship gone the other way then he would now be ahead of Bingham. He also lost out in the last 64 of the Indian Open to Elliot Slessor 4-3 from 3-1 down as well as a 4-3 in the first round of the Welsh Open to Jimmy Robertson. If he regains the form he had in Berlin at the German Masters then he has as good a chance as anyone of winning the title, but based on his last few results he could be vulnerable and may well fall short of a place next week in Llandudno. 

Defending champion Ryan Day is appearing for the first time in a few weeks. Day was not in the Players Championship, the Indian Open or the Shoot-Out so has not played since his China Open qualifier which was a crucial victory for him. At 17th on the Crucible list he needs to go deep here in Gibraltar and again in Beijing to have any chance of avoiding the World Championship qualifying stages. Prior to that qualifier, Day lost in the first round of the Welsh Open, the World Grand Prix and in the last 32 of the German Masters too so it is difficult to have high hopes for him defending his title. His potential last 64 tie against Noppon Saengkham is a very difficult one. The Thai featured as a late replacement in Championship League group seven this week, winning five out of six round robin games (only losing to John Higgins who won every game in that group) and then losing narrowly to Ding Junhui in the group semi-final.

This section is one that can have an impact on the tour survival race. Gerard Greene and Joe Swail face each other in round one of this event in what could be a crucial contest. Both players are well outside of the top 64 on the end of the season list, but can gain new two-year cards on the one-season list by being in the top eight not already qualified for next season. Swail is currently seventh on that list, but having not qualified for China a defeat here to Greene could be critical. Greene meanwhile is £2,900 behind the two players in joint eight position, but has qualified for China, so a few wins here in Gibraltar could set him up for a late charge. Peter Lines meanwhile has a big chance this week too as he is the favourite in his mini section to win his first couple of games. Lines is £2,500 below eight place on this one-year list and as he is not in China also, this could be a big weekend for Lines too.

My first quarter choice though is Mark Davis. He may also be in the same mini section as Saengkham and Day, but he could certainly do some damage in the draw this weekend. Davis has been a ranking finalist already this season at the English Open and recently made the quarter-finals again at the Indian Open so could easily go deep here too. The last 32 match against Day or Saengkham is the toughest match up Davis would face before the quarter-finals so Davis is certainly one to watch in this quarter, and now with the withdrawal of Ali Carter you have to say that other than maybe Gilbert there are not many names to fear in this section whatsoever, so a more outside chance like Davis could be a strong selection for the week. 

Best of the rest: David Gilbert
Quarter choice: Mark Davis

Quarter 2

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold)

Luca Brecel Vs Liam Highfield 
Fergal O'Brien Vs Christopher Watts
Tian Pengfei Vs Chen Feilong
Michael Georgiou Vs Paul Davison
Yan Bingtao Vs Lee Walker
Kishan Hirani Vs Barry Pinches
Chen Zifan Vs Farakh Ajaib
Zhang Anda Vs Robin Hull
Luo Honghao Vs Jamie Clarke
Nigel Bond Vs Daniel Bagley
Michael Holt Vs Oliver Brown
Jimmy Robertson Vs Sam Baird
Ricky Walden Vs Jamie O'Neill
Lu Ning Vs Adam Ashley 
Dominic Dale Vs Elfed Evans
Shaun Murphy W/O Matthew Stevens

Luca Brecel is at the top of the draw here in the second quarter but his run of failing to reach a ranking quarter-final since November 2017 continued after a narrow last 16 loss to Scott Donaldson in India. Looking at the draw it is very much possible that the run could end this weekend, but it must now be a psychological barrier for the Belgian who is far too good for this to have gone on for so long. Prior to that he even lost at the last 16 stage of the Shoot-Out, after a first round exit at the Welsh Open to Kurt Maflin. The season has certainly been poor from Brecel and he could easily lose in the first round to Liam Highfield, though Highfield is not in great form at the moment either.

Tian Pengfei is someone in this section that could be a player to come from outside of the box to have a deep run in the event. Looking at the draw he is certainly more than capable of making the quarter-finals of this event, with other lower ranked players in the section and some top players out of form. Tian does seem to enjoy the best-of-7 frame format, having previously reached the Ruhr Open final in 2015, as well as making the European Masters quarter-finals this season and the last 16 of the Scottish Open, losing out narrowly on both occasions. Like Davis in quarter one, Tian is one to watch in the draw this week. 

Section two is another big section for tour survival. The first person to look at is Fergal O'Brien as he is currently 65th on the provisional end-of-season list. He is currently £2,800 outside of the top 64 and faces an amateur qualifier in round one. O'Brien has had a very tough time on the table lately, losing in the first round in India recently, as well as in the Shoot-Out and the Welsh Open, as well as failing to qualify for the China Open.

Dominic Dale meanwhile is currently 66th on the end-of-season list, £9,400 outside of the 64, but he is also in China to pick up valuable points there. With an amateur qualifier in round one, and a second round match against either Matthew Stevens or an out of form Shaun Murphy, then this week is a good opportunity for Dale to move closer to the top 64. Nigel Bond is well outside of the top 64, but still has a chance on the one-year list mentioned earlier, sitting on the same amount of points as Peter Lines and £2,500 behind those in joint eighth position. In round one here he faces an amateur qualifier which is a good opportunity to pick up some vital ground on those ahead of him. 

Shaun Murphy comes to Gibraltar for the first time since winning this title in 2017 and he will be hoping to find a little bit of form in what is his last event before appearing at the Crucible in April. Murphy's woes continued in India with a last 32 exit against Chris Wakelin, having failed to qualify for the China Open and losing in the last 64 of the Welsh Open prior to that. If there is any positives to take into this event it is that he has received a walkover into the second round this weekend after the withdrawal of International Championship semi-finalist Matthew Stevens, in what surely would have been a very tough game for Murphy. This walkover may even be a good omen for Murphy as he also received a bye into the last 64 two years ago when he won the title, but there is still a lot of work for him to do over the weekend. Another two wins on Friday would see Murphy into Sunday's last 16 and it is amazing to think that, after reaching four ranking finals last season, that he has only reached the last 16 in two ranking events this season. Unless he has really found some form on the practice table since India and picked up some confidence, then it could be another hard week for the former world champion. 

Jimmy Robertson may be a top 16 seed this week but he has been really struggling in recent times. The European Masters champion lost 6-0 to Judd Trump in the first round of last week's Players Championship. That followed a first round loss in India, 4-0 to Scott Donaldson while he also failed to qualify for the China Open after a 6-3 defeat to Ashley Carty. With that in mind he faces Sam Baird in round one, whom he faced three times last season, losing twice before a 10-7 victory against Baird in World Championship qualifying. Baird reached the quarter-finals in the Shoot-Out recently, as well as making the quarter-finals in Scotland earlier this season and defeating Fergal O'Brien to qualify for China last month. If Robertson finds a bit of form this weekend he could well have a deep run in the event, but if he is not quite on it in round one, then Baird is well capable of punishing him. 

Michael Holt is my selection for this second quarter, in what is my really outside of the box choice for the event. Holt was a recent finalist in the Snooker Shoot-Out losing out to Thepchaiya in the end. The £16,000 he picked up for the weekend and the bottle he showed to make some of the breaks he did in the quarter-finals and semi-finals under high pressure should give him a lot of confidence. To then have the same opponent in Thepchaiya in round one in India was unfortunate and both players played well in the game with the Thai ultimately coming out on top. Looking at the draw though, this is certainly a quarter I could see Holt winning if he brings that Shoot-Out form to Gibraltar. With Murphy, Brecel and Jimmy Robertson, three of the highest seeds in the section, short on form, this feels like one of the more open sections and Holt's name stands out as one that can take advantage if the draw does indeed open up. As a winner of two of the old PTC events, a runner-up in two of the old Asian Tour events and a former finalist in the Riga Masters when that first became a ranking tournament, Holt has had success in events with the same format as this and there is no reason why that cannot continue this weekend. 

Best of the rest: Tian Pengfei
Quarter Choice: Michael Holt

Quarter 3

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold)

Barry Hawkins Vs Ashley Carty
Andrew Higginson Vs Dylan Craig
Andy Lee Vs Curtis Daher
Allan Taylor Vs Kuldesh Johal 
Anthony McGill Vs Zhang Yong
Scott Donaldson Vs Duane Jones
Matthew Selt Vs Andy Hicks
Zhou Yuelong Vs Lukasz Guzowski
Kurt Maflin Vs Joe O'Connor 
Rory McLeod Vs Sergey Isaenko
Thepchaiya Un-Nooh Vs Soheil Vahedi 
John Astley W/O Graeme Dott
Ashley Hugill Vs Halim Hussain 
Eden Sharav Vs Mike Finn
Anthony Hamilton Vs Francisco Domingues
Stuart Bingham Vs Mike Dunn

Matthew Selt and Thepchaiya Un-Nooh are the two latest ranking event winners and both sit in this third quarter of the draw. On a week where lower ranked players again have the chance to shine, the likes of Selt and Un-Nooh should be the inspiration that the rest of the outsiders in this draw need. Selt was victorious in India defeating Lu Haotian in the final having beaten John Higgins in the semi-finals as well. That will give Selt a lot of confidence and he could well go deep again here as he looks to get back to the ranking he achieved three or four years ago. Thepchaiya meanwhile will now look to win a bigger ranking title after his victory at the Shoot-Out. Again he should be full of confidence and was scoring so heavily that weekend in Watford. His draw this weekend is pretty favourable and I expect the Thai to make at least the last 16 on Sunday and given his recent success there is no reason why he could not win again. 

In the race for tour survival in section three, Anthony Hamilton is now inside the top 64 on the end-of-season list after a run to the semi-finals of the Indian Open. While that was Hamilton's second semi-final of the season, he is still only 62nd on the list though and after not qualifying for China he could still use a win or two this week. In round one he faces an amateur qualifier, but could face a tough potential second round tie against Stuart Bingham which may end any progress for him this week.

Rory McLeod is 67th on the end-of-season list but would have a mountain to climb to get into the 64, sitting £15,500 behind and he too failed to qualify for China. On the one-year list he is in joint eighth in the top eight not already qualified for next season and faces an amateur qualifier in round one as he looks to separate himself from James Cahill (who has to come through amateur qualifying to reach the first round this week) and potentially climb ahead of Joe Swail who is just £600 ahead of him as it stands. Looking at the draw, there is certainly a chance for McLeod to win a couple of games this week and that could be crucial come the season's finale. 

Stuart Bingham is one of the form players at the moment. A runner-up at the Welsh Open in recent times, he is well placed for a spot in the Tour Championships. A win in round one here would mean David Gilbert would have to make the final, and Kyren Wilson would have to go one round further than Bingham does in order for him to lose his spot. He will certainly be disappointed with two of his losses since that Welsh Open final too. Against Lu Ning in the last 16 in India he was nicely in front in the match before Lu forced a decider and pulled out some excellent pots on the final colours to win. While against Mark Allen at the Players Championship he let a 3-0 lead slip before losing 6-4. If he brings something near his best game this week you have to say he is a massive favourite to make at least the quarter-finals and he is one of the overall tournament favourites, but a man at the other end of this quarter will have something to say about that. 

Barry Hawkins is my third quarter choice ahead of Bingham, with Hawkins being another of the major tournament favourites. In the Players Championship he may have lost in round one to Ronnie O'Sullivan, but O'Sullivan proved unstoppable in Preston and Hawkins still made two centuries in that match. Prior to that, Hawkins made the semi-finals of the Grand Prix before losing to eventual winner Judd Trump and if recent history is anything to go by, then Hawkins usually peaks at around this time of year. His draw does not look like anything he cannot handle if he is anywhere near his best game and while shocks are always possible over the best-of-7 frames format, it would be a big surprise if neither of Bingham and Hawkins are in the quarter-finals on Sunday and in such a contest, I would slightly favour Hawkins. 

Best of the rest: Stuart Bingham
Quarter Choice: Barry Hawkins

Quarter 4

Last 128 draw: (Picks in bold)

Jack Lisowski Vs Hammad Miah
Gary Wilson Vs Zhao Xintong
Ken Doherty Vs Oliver Lines
Martin O'Donnell Vs Francisco Sanchez Ruiz
Joe Perry Vs Sean O'Sullivan 
Ian Burns Vs Alfie Burden
Yuan Sijun Vs Sanderson Lam
Craig Steadman Vs James Cahill
Ben Woollaston Vs Ronan Whyte
Xu Si Vs Zhang Jiankang
Robert Milkins Vs Adam Stefanow
Tom Ford Vs David Lilley
Rod Lawler Vs Steven Thomas 
Ross Muir Vs Kevin Van Hove
Robbie Williams Vs Jimmy White 
Kyren Wilson Vs Jordan Brown

Jack Lisowski leads the way at the top of the fourth quarter. He will be gutted with his quarter-final exit at the Players Championship from 5-2 ahead against Judd Trump. Prior to that he lost a very close match in India to Joe Swail 4-3 and was defeated 4-3 in the last 16 of the Welsh Open. It has to be said that Lisowski has gone slightly quiet in the second half of the season after making a final, a semi-final and three quarter-finals between June and the start of November. First round exits in India, the Grand Prix, German Masters and the Masters have halted his progress somewhat and probably prevented him reaching the Tour Championships. His draw this week is not easy either with a potential second round tie with Zhao Xintong or Gary Wilson, while plenty of other dangerous players lie in this section as well and could take down Lisowski if he is not at his best.

James Cahill will be looking to continue his pursuit of a new two-year professional tour card this weekend. Playing in events this season as a Q-School amateur top-up, Cahill defeated Mark Selby in the UK Championship, Liang Wenbo in the World Open and Shaun Murphy on the way to the last 32 of the Welsh Open. His run to the last 16 in the recent Indian Open has left him in joint eighth position on the one-year list (alongside Rory McLeod) tied for the final tour card spot. This week he has had to win two amateur qualifying matches to make the main draw, defeating Challenge Tour 10 runner-up Callum Lloyd in the process. He could do with another couple of wins here though starting against Craig Steadman, if he is to have realistic tour card hopes, especially having failed to qualify for the China Open. Based on some of his recent results though, Cahill has every chance against Steadman and is more than capable of producing a few results this weekend. 

Zhao Xintong and Yuan Sijun are two young players in this section who could have a really deep run and take inspiration from Lu Haotian recently making the final of the Indian Open. The format, as well as the lack of top players, means there is an opportunity for a lower ranked up and coming player to shine again and maybe even deliver a first-time winner once again and these two could certainly be contenders. The tough test for Yuan Sijun would most likely be a last 32 clash with Joe Perry, but if he were to make it through to the last 16 on Sunday then there is no reason why he could not make a charge through the draw on the final day, having reached a couple of quarter-finals already this season. Zhao meanwhile has a very tough first round draw against Gary Wilson, with a potential last 64 tie against Jack Lisowski. However, the way he has played this season and the heavy scoring he has shown, especially on the way to the quarter-finals of the Welsh Open and the semi-finals of the China Championship, makes him capable of beating almost anyone so if he is at his best this weekend he too could do some damage. 

Kyren Wilson is the one well and truly stand out name in the bottom half of this quarter and it would be a real shock if he fell before the quarter-final stages. A first round loss in the Players Championship does not ring alarm bells as he was facing a top player in Jack Lisowski, though his last 64 loss in the Welsh Open to Joe O'Connor was a massive shock. When the field was low on top players at the Paul Hunter Classic in August over the same format as this event, it was Wilson who came out on top and his success in Germany did not stop there as he won the German Masters in February and he will see this as an opportunity for title number three of the season. The names you would list as the most dangerous to Wilson in this quarter like Lisowski, Perry or even Xintong and Yuan Sijun, would not face him until the last eight stage. Even guys like Tom Ford and Robert Milkins would not play him until the last 16 on Sunday and they are both pretty short on form in recent times. 

Joe Perry is my fourth and final quarter choice for this weekend's Gibraltar Open. Perry was finalist earlier this season in the European Masters in a week where the draw really opened up, defeating Wilson along the way that week and with the draw as it is he could be one to keep an eye on. A first round exit at the Players Championship was to eventual finalist Neil Robertson, while in India, his last 32 loss to Li Hang saw his opponent make successive centuries from 2-2. At 18th on the Crucible seedings list, £31,000 adrift of David Gilbert but with a last 128 holdover in the China Open to come, he could be the man to make a late charge for one of the last automatic Crucible spots. There is usually one player that puts in a late plot twist before Sheffield and Perry is one of the best candidates based on both his quality and his current position. There are certainly a few banana skins in his section, with Yuan Sijun as a potential last 32 opponent and Lisowski as a potential last 16 test, but Perry at his best would take care of both of those and could well be the tournament winner on Sunday to bag his second ranking title after his close call in Lommel. 

Best of the rest: Kyren Wilson
Quarter choice: Joe Perry
Tournament winner selection: Barry Hawkins 


The tournament is of course the best-of-7 frames from start to finish, with the winner receiving £25,000 while the runner-up receives £12,000. The event will be covered live by Eurosport, with bits and pieces of the weekend appearing on TV, while the entire event will be on the Eurosport Player. 

No comments:

Post a Comment