Monday 18 March 2019

Tour Championship Preview

Tuesday sees the beginning of a new event to the snooker tour, as the Coral series concludes with the Tour Championships.

With Judd Trump beating Ali Carter to win the first event of the series in February's 32-man World Grand Prix in Cheltenham, before Ronnie O'Sullivan defeated Neil Robertson to win the 16-man Players Championship just over a week ago in Preston, the top eight players on the one-season ranking list will compete for the Tour Championship title in Llandudno.

Mark Allen has been the top seed throughout the series and retains that rank coming here, just ahead of Players Champion O'Sullivan and Grand Prix winner Trump. Players runner-up Robertson is the fourth seed, with World number one Mark Selby, World Champion Mark Williams, English Open winner Stuart Bingham and German Masters champion Kyren Wilson completing the line-up.

The six day event sees quarter-finals over the first two days in a best-of-17 frame format, before best-of-19 frame semi-finals and a best-of-25 frame final over three sessions, in what will be an interesting marker just a month before the World Championships gets underway.

In an interesting move, this event does count towards the rankings, including the £20,000 that the four quarter-final losers will receive just for qualifying. Having qualified, the eight players are very strongly placed in the two-year ranking list anyway and this tournament will simply serve to put them even further ahead of everyone else. John Higgins is the only member of the provisional top eight in the two-year rankings not to have qualified.

Quarter-Final 1

Mark Allen Vs Kyren Wilson (Wednesday 20th March 1pm and 7pm)

The top of the draw is where International and Scottish Open champion Mark Allen is found as he takes on German Masters winner Kyren Wilson. These two have played in a number of big matches over the last year or so, most recently in the semi-finals of the Champion of Champions in a match Wilson would win 6-5. Before that they faced off in last season's World Championship quarter-finals with Wilson winning convincingly there, avenging his previous loss to Allen in the 2018 Masters final.

This is probably the hardest of the four quarter-finals to call on paper. Allen had an excellent first half of the season winning his two titles and reaching the UK Championship final, but he has gone a bit more quiet since Christmas. Proving that point is the fact that he has only played in four tournaments since winning in Glasgow. His Masters defence ended at the first hurdle, before he walked out of his last 16 match at the World Grand Prix and followed that with a last 32 loss in Wales. Signs were better at the Players Championship as he won two matches to make the semi-finals, beating Stuart Bingham from 3-0 down in the quarter-finals, before losing 6-0 to O'Sullivan.

Wilson meanwhile comes into this straight from Gibraltar where he lost at the last 16 stage to Robert Milkins, leaving him hoping that David Gilbert would not make the final to steal the final spot in this tournament from him. Prior to that he lost in the first round of the Players Championship to Jack Lisowski and suffered a last 64 loss in Cardiff and by far his brightest moment of the year was his German Masters victory in early February.

For me there is not much between these two players whatsoever. Allen has kicked his game up a level with his performances in the calendar year of 2018 but 2019 has not quite got going yet. With the big money China Open to follow this though before the big one in Sheffield, now is the perfect time to be coming back fresher. Wilson though has looked good over the long format in the last two or three World Championships and will be looking to show again this week that he is right up there as one of this year's Crucible contenders. 

Prediction: Allen to just pull away late on - 9-7. 

Quarter-Final 2

Neil Robertson Vs Mark Selby (Tuesday 19th March 1pm and 7pm)

The other quarter-final in this top half of the draw sees Riga Masters and Welsh Open champion Neil Robertson facing China Champion Mark Selby. These two have played a couple of times earlier this season with Robertson winning on both occasions. The first was in the quarter-finals of the International Championship, with the Australian eventually making the final, while the other saw Selby make a 147 in a losing cause in Coventry. To find the last time these two played in anything longer than a best-of-11 though, you have to go back five years to their World Championship semi-final.

Robertson is the fourth seed this week, just ahead of Selby despite Selby winning a tournament worth £150,000 early on in the season. For Robertson this has been one of his best season's in a long time. Four ranking finals overall, winning in Riga and Cardiff while losing in the International Championship and just over a week ago in Preston. Since that final, he has become a Dad for the second time, with his wife giving birth to their baby daughter in just the last couple of days. Whether that may affect his game in Llandudno this week remains to be seen, but a few days away from the practice table should not hurt given the form he has been in lately. He really is back to his best and is probably the one player you would pick from the four in the top half of the draw to make the final in my opinion. A big week here over the long format, starting with a win over the man to have won three of the last five World Championships, would give further confirmation if any is needed that he is one of the favourites for Sheffield this year.

Selby meanwhile has not actually had the best of seasons and for the first time in ages - is under threat at the top of the world rankings. If O'Sullivan out performs or even just matches him this week and Selby fails to do enough in Beijing to overturn the gap then O'Sullivan will arrive in Sheffield as world number one. Selby lost out in round one last time out at the Players Championship 6-4 to John Higgins, following a last 16 exit at the Welsh Open. His quarter-final efforts in the Grand Prix and the Masters were ended handsomely by Judd Trump on both occasions and let's not forget that amateur James Cahill took him out in the last 128 of the UK Championships. Even when he has had good runs this season - winning the China Championships and making the semi-finals in Northern Ireland - he did not have to beat any top players along the way. In fact he has only beaten top 16 players on three occasions in big events this year (Higgins at the China Championship, Maguire at the Masters and Murphy in the World Grand Prix), something that may worry his fans coming into three massive events to finish the season.

Over this long format though Selby can never be ruled out. After all anyone that can win three out of five World Championships can win three matches against top eight players in this event to take home the trophy. Purely based on form though, one of these two players is at the top of his game right now and another will be hoping to find something before the season ends. 

Prediction: Robertson to come out a 9-6 winner 

Quarter-Final 3

Judd Trump Vs Mark Williams (Tuesday 19th March 1pm and Wednesday 20th 1pm)

As we move into the bottom half of the draw, we find Masters champion Judd Trump taking on World Champion Mark Williams. After a spell of playing each other seven times in 2015 and 2016 combined, these two left-handers have only faced once in the last two and a half years, with Williams winning 6-1 in the 2018 German Masters semi-finals and for two top players they have never played a match longer than a best-of-11.

Williams may be World Champion but right now Trump is the man everyone wants to beat. As well as lifting the Masters in emphatic style in January, he won the Northern Ireland Open in November and February's World Grand Prix. He only missed out narrowly on another final in Preston, falling 6-4 at the semi-final stage to Robertson despite leading 3-1 at the interval and even when he has not been winning he has had plenty of quarter-finals as well as a semi-final in Scotland too. He's scoring for fun this season, with a monumental 68 centuries already and while he probably won't match Neil Robertson's century of centuries from a few seasons ago, deep runs here, in Beijing and in Sheffield in long format tournaments could see him get very close. After all, he is not even 30 until August and he has already reached the 600 mark for career centuries which just shows the level of scoring he has produced so regularly.

As for Mark Williams, the majority of his money from this season was made early on as he won the second tournament of the season - the World Open. Since then he has only actually reached two ranking event quarter-finals, one coming in Berlin at the German Masters before a 5-0 loss to Kyren Wilson and the other at the Players Championship where he only had to record the 6-2 victory against Ali Carter to do so. In the middle of the season in around October and November he was struggling badly but has looked better of late despite the results not quite backing that up yet. He looked good in the World Grand Prix for example but suffered a 4-3 first round loss to an equally good Yuan Sijun on that day. Having said all of this, last season was a massive achievement for him given that just two years ago he failed to even qualify for the Crucible.

Trump is full of confidence though at the moment and if he is on top of his game here against Williams, it will highlight any mistakes that the Welshman makes over the two sessions. If Williams can find some form this does have the potential to go close, but if he is not quite on top of things, the punishment will be severe and the match could slip away quite quickly. 

Prediction: Trump to win 9-5. 

Quarter-Final 4

Ronnie O'Sullivan Vs Stuart Bingham (Tuesday 19th March 7pm and Wednesday 20th 7pm)

Finally, the bottom of the draw is where we find the winners of the last two events. Ronnie O'Sullivan was victorious in Preston at the Players Championship while Stuart Bingham comes into this after a successful weekend in Gibraltar. This will also be their fourth meeting of the season, having previously met in the Shanghai Masters where O'Sullivan won 6-2, the Champion of Champions with the Rocket taking that won 4-2 and he completed the hat-trick in January's Masters with another 6-2 win.

That does not necessarily bode well for Bingham but he has been in good form over the last couple of months. Last weekend in Gibraltar he may have been the highest ranked player on the one-year list to enter, but he certainly took advantage. Overall, he made nine centuries over his 28 frames won and only dropped one frame in the final three matches on Sunday. This came after a narrow quarter-final loss in Preston (where he would have played O'Sullivan in the semi's) falling from 3-0 up against Mark Allen, and another tough defeat to Lu Ning in the last 16 in India. Prior to that, Bingham was a scoring machine again on the way to the final in Cardiff, as well as winning the English Open and making the UK Championship final earlier in the season.

As for O'Sullivan he has been in the latter stages of almost everything he has entered in the 2018/2019 season. He started his season in September with a win in Shanghai, before also winning the Champion of Champions and the UK Championship. Only Judd Trump was able to stop him at the final stage of both the Northern Ireland Open and the Masters, but O'Sullivan's fourth title of the season would come just over a week ago. But for a couple of weeks in February where he lost early in the Grand Prix and the Welsh Open, he has really taking some stopping again this season. The one worry his fans may have here in his last event before another assault on the World Championships are his comments about longer matches. He does not seem to like his chances as much in tournaments with multi-session matches and what he gets up to this week in Llandudno could prove a big marker for how he does in Sheffield next month.

Overall, Bingham's recent form would suggest he can push O'Sullivan a lot closer than he has on his previous attempts this season, but O'Sullivan has taken some serious stopping all season long and is once again the favourite to walk away with the title on Sunday night. 

Prediction: O'Sullivan to win but not after a stern test. 9-7. 

Tournament winner selection: Judd Trump 


Both semi-finals will be played over the best-of-19 frames when the tournament goes down to one table on Thursday and Friday, before the best-of-25 frame final starting on Saturday evening and concluding with the final two sessions on Sunday. 

Overall, the players receive £20,000 for qualifying this week, a figure that doubles to £40,000 if they can win their opening match and move into the semi-finals. The runner-up will take home a nice £60,000 sum but the champion will earn a mighty £150,000 for less than six days work.

The tournament will be covered from start to finish on ITV4 in the UK, as they picked up the rights to this event to go with the Grand Prix and Players Championship. 

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