Last year Cardiff saw a resurgent John Higgins pick up the title by beating first time ranking finalist Ben Woollaston in the final. Mark Williams was yet again the number one home player as he lost a deciding frame semi-final against Ben, while Luca Brecel reached his first ever semi-final (something he topped just a week ago by reaching the German Masters final.
In fact, since Woollaston's failed attempts to win his first ranking title there have been four first time ranking winners (Michael White at the Indian Open, Joe Perry at the Players Championship, Kyren Wilson in the Shanghai Masters and Martin Gould at the German Masters). With the early stages of this event being played over the best-of-7 frames until the quarter-finals which are best-of-9 frames, while the semi-finals are over the best-of-11 frames and the final is best-of-17 frames we could easily see the draw open up once again for someone new to walk through and take the £60,000 top prize.
In addition, it is an important week down at the bottom of the rankings as the fight for tour survival continues and after the China Open qualifiers were completed this week, we now only see all 128 at a venue in this event and the Gdynia Open before things all come to a head for the boys around the 64 mark in the rankings at the World Championship qualifiers.
As for myself, I will be at the venue in Cardiff for the opening three days of the event when things will take place over a multi-table set-up. On Monday 12 tables will be operation with all 64 matches take place on the opening day starting from 9am. Tuesday will see things go down to 8 tables for the 32 Last 64 matches and play starts at the much more pleasant hour of 10.30am. Then Wednesday will see the Last 32 matches take place, with play going down to four tables for the first three sessions starting at 10.30am, before the evening session will see play go down to two tables to get the four remaining matches completed on a roll-on roll-off basis.
For those of you not at the venue BBC Wales will be covering the event, while according to the BBC Sport Website it should also be available on the Red Button and through the website. Eurosport will also be covering the event for those of you in Europe.
So then, with five events to go the players will all be looking to go to the World Championships with a title under their belts, but who has the best chance this week? Let's take a look at the draw:
Quarter 1:
Last 128 Draw: (Picks in Bold)John Higgins Vs Andy Hicks
Sam Baird Vs Thor Chuan Leong
Peter Ebdon Vs Zhang Anda
Jamie Jones Vs Michael Georgiou
Liang Wenbo Vs Hatem Yassen
Gary Wilson Vs Jimmy White
Tom Ford Vs Jason Weston
Michael White Vs Joe O'Connor
Ryan Day Vs Vinnie Calabrese
Mike Dunn Vs Chris Wakelin
Robin Hull Vs Hossein Vafei Ayouri
Mark Allen Vs Sam Craigie
Xiao Guodong Vs James Cahill
Mark Davis Vs Zhao Xintong
Robbie Williams Vs Luke Simmonds
Barry Hawkins Vs Lee Walker
In the very top section of the draw we of course have the defending champion John Higgins, as well as Masters runner-up Barry Hawkins, UK runner-up Liang Wenbo, Champion of Champions runner-up Mark Allen and some of the main home contenders in Jamie Jones, Michael White and Ryan Day.
Mark Allen has had a mixed time of things over the course of the season. After beating Shaun Murphy in the Masters he has struggled to a first round exit at the venue in Berlin last week and this week he failed to qualify for the China Open. Before Christmas he made it to the Champion of Champions final and took a European Tour title but he has failed to re-create much of that form since then. He is more than likely going to have a tough second round match on his hands with two good players battling in Robin Hull and Hossein Vafei Ayouri battling for the right to possibly meet Allen in the Last 64, and if he comes through that Ryan Day could be waiting for him, and Ryan is always a tough player to beat.
Liang Wenbo suffered a first round exit at the German Masters to Ryan Day and at the Masters to John Higgins who are both in this section, which the Chinaman will hardly be delighted with. He could face Welsh Michael White in the Last 32 which presents very tough opposition, particularly in a best-of-7. On top of that Higgins would be his possible last 16 opponent if he got through such a tough match and he's never beaten John in his entire career. The pressure is on Wenbo too as he fights for a spot in the top 16 at the Crucible, whilst also trying to prove that after his run to the UK final that he is not necessarily a one hit wonder.
John Higgins loves it here in Wales having won four titles, three of which have come in the last six years. He had a pretty comfortable warm up in China Open qualifying as he took on Michael Wasley and won 5-2 after Wasley was docked the fifth frame for returning late from the interval. That was the first time we had seen Higgins since the Masters where he played poorly in his quarter-final exit after a brilliant performance in the last 16. Failure to qualify for Berlin prior to Christmas came as a surprise but when it comes to Wales his record is more than good enough to suggest he can have a run this week.
Barry Hawkins is a former semi-finalist here in Wales, as well as coming into form at the start of the year in the Masters. He starts off this week with a testing match against Lee Walker but his 5-0 win in China qualifying this week suggests he is playing well going forward and should be able to get over such early obstacles. In Germany he was unlucky to lose out in a tight one with Graeme Dott which I suspected may happen after the form Dott showed in the early parts of that week but I think Hawkins is ready to hit back this week in Cardiff and if he can get through the early rounds there's nothing stopping him going all the way.
Quarter Winner: Barry Hawkins
Quarter 2
Last 128 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Shaun Murphy Vs Itaro Santos
Zhou Yuelong Vs Mitchell Mann
Luca Brecel Vs Ian Burns
Mark King Vs Scott Donaldson
Ding Junhui Vs Steven Hallworth
Joe Swail Vs Zak Surety
Gerard Greene Vs Sydney Wilson
Matt Selt Vs Nigel Bond
Graeme Dott Vs Darryl Hill
Jamie Burnett Vs Ross Muir
Andrew Higginson Vs Daniel Wells
Marco Fu Vs Joel Walker
Anthony McGill Vs Liam Highfield
Thepchaiya Un-Nooh Vs Paul Davison
Stuart Carrington Vs Jordan Brown
Neil Robertson Vs Fraser Patrick
Quarter number two is packed with top stars. We get a first look at struggling Ding Junhui since his first round Masters exit, recent German Masters semi-finalist in Graeme Dott and finalist in Luca Brecel. That's all on top of World numbers 3 and 4 Neil Robertson and Shaun Murphy, and Gibraltar Open champion Marco Fu.
Ding Junhui is playing his first match since the very beginning of January in the Masters, where he lost in the first round to Stuart Bingham in a low quality affair. Since then Ding has not played in the Championship League, failed to qualify for Germany before Christmas, and did not even have to play his China Open qualifier this week as that was held over to the venue in Beijing. After a Last 128 exit in the UK Championship and failure to qualify for the Champion of Champions as well as only appearing once on the European Tour, where he was handed a Last 128 walkover only to lose to Stuart Bingham in the Last 64 the questions are all about where Ding has gone. It will be of great interest to see if he has found something in the last month that he has had off. His issue is clearly confidence because you can see his heavy body language in his chair anytime that something goes wrong. A possible second round tie with Joe Swail does not look appealing over best-of-7 frames, nor does a last 32 match with Matt Selt when you are struggling like Ding is. This could be the week where he turns things around but it's very hard to say that for certain when there is no evidence to back up such a view.
Marco Fu is not in the best of form at the start of 2016. He ended the year with a win on the European Tour in Gibraltar, but the turn of the year has been a different story. At the Masters he was suffering from a virus in a 6-0 loss to Neil Robertson, before turning up for group three of the Championship League and continuing to struggle. Following that was a first round exit to Kurt Maflin at the German Masters and with the short format he could easily lose early on this week if he fails to re-capture the snooker that took him the distance in Gibraltar, as a possible Last 32 match with Graeme Dott does not look appealing for him.
Then we come to a man who I have no idea on for this tournament in Shaun Murphy. Speaking to Shaun ahead of this tournament he says that he's "convinced" that he's going to have a good run in Wales this week. This comes from a man who has failed to get past the Last 32 in the Welsh Open in five of his last six appearances. This also comes from a man that lost in the first round of the Masters to Mark Allen and in the first round of the German Masters at the venue to Ben Woollaston, although he did make two centuries and a 90 in his China Open qualifier and has not exactly played badly, just falling in tight matches of late. There's no reason why he shouldn't do well in this event, so perhaps this week he'll turn things around (and shut me up in the process). Having said that his prospective draw looks tough with a possible Last 64 tie with young Zhou Yuelong, a possible Last 32 tie with Luca Brecel or even Mark King and a possible Last 16 with Ding Junhui who could easily find form himself this week.
Neil Robertson may be a former champion at the Welsh Open, winning in 2007, but since then he has only gotten past the last 16 once in eight attempts as I pick out in my stat attack preview. Absent from Germany after failing to qualify and losing out in a classic at the Masters there's not much to judge Neil on since Christmas. He managed to get over the line in a tough qualifier against Hossein Vafei Ayouri, but his draw this week looks tricky. A possible second round tie with Stuart Carrington would not necessarily be straight forward over the best-of-7 frames and both of Thepchaiya Un-Nooh and Anthony McGill present themselves as possible last 32 opposition and even if he gets through that, Marco Fu or Graeme Dott could be waiting in the Last 16 making this one of the toughest quarters in the draw to call.
Quarter Winner: Neil Robertson
Quarter 3
Last 128 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Mark Selby Vs Duane Jones
David Grace Vs Peter Lines
Fergal O'Brien Vs Noppon Saengkham
Ali Carter Vs Cao Yupeng
Mark Williams Vs Lu Chenwei
Rod Lawler Vs Sanderson Lam
Kurt Maflin Vs Hammad Miah
Kyren Wilson Vs Leo Fernandez
Robert Milkins Vs Sean O'Sullivan
Dechawat Poomjaeng Vs Craig Steadman
Yu De Lu Vs Ian Glover
Ricky Walden Vs James Wattana
Michael Holt Vs Hamza Akbar
Jimmy Robertson Vs Michael Wild
Tian Pengfei Vs Ashley Hugill
Ronnie O'Sullivan Vs Barry Pinches
On to the bottom half of the draw and many people will say it's all about world number on Mark Selby and his ongoing rivalry with Masters champion Ronnie O'Sullivan whom he could meet in the quarter-finals. There's plenty of hurdles to get over before then with the likes of Ali Carter, Kyren Wilson and number one Welsh hope Mark Williams in Selby's section, while Ronnie may have to face Ricky Walden or Robert Milkins (both of whom have horrendous records against him mind you).
Ricky Walden needs a big run here in Wales this week if he is to qualify for the World Grand Prix in March, such is the poor quality season that he has had. A first round exit in the Masters to Mark Selby does not look too bad until you see that it was 6-0, and he failed to qualify yet again for the German Masters, before scraping over the line in China Open qualifying 5-4 from 4-3 down against Barry Pinches. Even prior to Christmas he suffered a Last 128 exit in the International Championship and a Last 64 exit in York. This week his draw does not look awful and he could well make the Last 16 but if his opposition is Ronnie O'Sullivan that is as far as he will get.
Mark Williams has had a mixed time of things since the start of 2016. He has played well in the Championship League at Crondon Park but failed to convert that form anywhere else. In the Masters he lost out 6-5 in the first round to eventual champion O'Sullivan, and he lost in the first round of the German Masters 5-4 to eventual champion Martin Gould which is not all that bad but he did suffer a surprise 5-3 loss in China qualifying to Martin O'Donnell this week. He should not have any problem in the first couple of rounds this week but his possible last 32 opponent Kyren Wilson will be a big challenge. On top of that Williams continues to shoulder the burden of expectation remaining the number one Welsh player so the pressure will be on him to perform once again this week at his home tournament.
Kyren Wilson turned his disappointing performance in last weeks German Masters semi-final, into a record breaking performance this week at in China Open qualifying. Across the entire German Masters from the Last 32 right through to his last 4 loss to Luca Brecel he only made five breaks of 50+ with a highest of 61. In China qualifying the confident young man beat Anthony Hamilton 5-3 making four centuries and a 68, while Hamilton had two of his own to make it the most centuries in a best-of-9. Getting his first ranking title this year was huge for his confidence and the performance against Hamilton will do more than enough to help him over Berlin and get back to his best here in Cardiff.
Mark Selby is someone who I have tipped to do well in almost everything since Christmas because I think that a big run for him is surely not too far away. He is striking the cue ball superbly at the moment and got his rhythm when scoring amongst the balls and it has taken some brilliant performances to beat him. Maguire was excellent against him in the German Masters as was Ronnie in the Masters. Even before Christmas he lost in the semi's to the eventual International and UK champions. He has a good record in Wales having won the title in 2008 and regularly reached the latter stages since. If he continues playing as he is i'm sure a title is only just around the corner for him.
Ronnie O'Sullivan is the big name in this quarter. Many wondered if he would even enter this tournament after referring to it as a "car boot" and looking like he enjoyed his time at the Motorpoint arena as much as I enjoy my time on boats (sea sickness is not a laughing matter). In 2016 he won Group 1 of the Championship League without losing a match and then went on to win the Masters. He failed to qualify for the German Masters but still turned up as a pundit and i'm sure he will play well this week. If he is at the top of his game I cannot see an opponent that he would lose to before a possible quarter-final with Mark Selby which will be the make or break match for both.
Quarter Winner: Mark Selby
Quarter 4
Last 128 Draw: (Picks in Bold)Judd Trump Vs Michael Leslie
Rory McLeod Vs Michael Wasley
Alan McManus Vs Rhys Clark
Mark Joyce Vs Gareth Allen
Joe Perry Vs Tony Drago
Li Hang Vs Chris Melling
David Gilbert Vs Zhang Yong
Ken Doherty Vs Lu Ning
Matthew Stevens Vs David Morris
Stephen Maguire Vs Martin O'Donnell
Jack Lisowski Vs Eden Sharav
Martin Gould Vs Adam Duffy
Dominic Dale Vs Alfie Burden
Ben Woollaston Vs Jamie Cope
Oliver Lines Vs Allan Taylor
Stuart Bingham Vs Anthony Hamilton
Last but not least it's quarter number four with world champion Stuart Bingham, joining him is Judd Trump, Joe Perry, recent German Master Martin Gould and former champion Stephen Maguire as well as two more seasoned Welsh campaigners in Dominic Dale and Matthew Stevens.
Stuart Bingham has had a continually tough time as world champion failing to get to the latter stages in any of the major ranking events. You feel like it will have to turn around soon, but equally many have pointed to the time commitments of being world champion interrupting his practice routines and causing the dip in form. In round one he faces Anthony Hamilton for the third time this season and I think this may be third time lucky for Anthony. Two centuries against Kyren showed he still had it, but unfortunately what Wilson had was snooker from the Gods. When they met in the UK's Stuart won but it could have been much closer on the day, but in German Masters qualifying Hamilton lost 5-4 having led 4-3 and missed match ball yellow in frame eight. This time I think the 'Sheriff of Pottingham' will be able to go one better.
Martin Gould will be on a high after winning his maiden ranking title at the German Masters last weekend and it will be interesting to see if he is able to come down from that and play well here in Wales. With a win under his belt and a place back in the top 16 it makes him more of a serious contender than ever for tournaments, but whether he can repeat that two weeks in a row is another question entirely as he is far from a multiple ranking winner, and in a tough section that contains Stephen Maguire and plenty of capable players I am going to rule him out.
Judd Trump continues his inconsistent play throughout tournaments this season after his German Masters quarter-final exit. At the Masters he made four centuries to beat Neil Robertson in the quarter-finals before losing to Barry Hawkins in the semi's and being a shadow of the man from the day before, and the same was true in Berlin after he made three centuries in the last 16 and lost in the quarters. I think his draw for the opening few rounds this week looks easy enough but he could come unstuck in the last 16 if he were to meet Joe Perry or in the quarters against somebody like Stephen Maguire.
Joe Perry is due a good run after failing to qualify for Berlin and losing in the first round of the Masters and the Last 64 of the UK Championships. He should not have much trouble in getting over Tony Drago in round one and I think if he can play the consistent snooker he exhibited this time last year then he will make it to at least the last 16 and possible then the quarter-finals and beyond, but after only playing a China Open qualifier and getting relegated from group three in the Championship League since his Masters exit there is little to go on other than gut feeling, and mine is that Perry will play some decent stuff this week and threaten for the quarter but I do not make him a serious contender.
One man that should be a serious contender for the title is Stephen Maguire. Maguire was a winner in Wales in 2013 and made the quarter-finals last year before losing out to eventual champion John Higgins, but with how the draw opened up that week that match felt like a final at the time in all honesty. Stephen won group three of the Championship League and was going well in the German Masters before a quarter-final loss to Dott who he has a poor record against. The feeling is certainly that Stephen is gearing up for a big run and three years on from his last full ranking title this could be his week, looking at the way he is striking the ball right now.
Quarter Winner: Stephen Maguire
Predicted Tournament Runner-Up: Neil Robertson
Predicted Tournament Winner: Stephen Maguire
Those are my predictions for the week ahead and it should be an exciting one. For the first half of the week, while I am at the Motorpoint arena I will be trialling a new "Live Blog" feature to give you regular updates on anything of note that the TV is not focussed on. I will also be back as usual with previews ahead of each round, so I hope you all enjoy that.
No comments:
Post a Comment